Virginia Season Preview

2022-23 Record: 25-8, 15-5 ACC (1st)

Coach: Tony Bennett, 15th Season

Departures: Armaan Franklin, G (Graduation)

Jayden Gardner, F (Graduation)

Kihei Clark, G (Graduation)

Ben Vander Plas, F (Graduation)

Kadin Shedrick, C (Transfer)

Francisco Caffaro, C (Transfer)

Isaac Traudt, F (Transfer)

Arrivals: Dante Harris, G (Transfer from Georgetown)

Andrew Rohde, W (Transfer from St. Thomas)

Jacob Groves, F (Transfer from Oklahoma)

Jordan Minor, F (Transfer from Merrimack)

Elijah Gertrude, G (Freshman)

Blake Buchanon, F (Freshman)

Anthony Robinson, C (Freshman)

Projected Starting Lineup

PG: Reece Beekman

SG: Isaac McKneely

SF: Andrew Rohde

PF: Ryan Dunn

C: Jordan Minor

Roster Breakdown

The Cavaliers have won the ACC regular season championship in four of the last six years, and Tony Bennett will be hoping to maintain that level while losing some program stalwarts, like Kihei Clark and Jayden Gardner. Four of the five starters from last season have departed the program, but point guard Reece Beekman returns and will have the ball in his hands even more this season. This will be his fourth season in Charlottesville, and he has gradually improved every year. He is an impact defender, winning ACC Defensive Player of the Year last season, and has averaged 1.7 steals a game over his career thus far. He's got good positional size at 6'3", and is strongly built as well. Beekman is a menace at the point of attack, and he will be the leader of what should be another strong defense. Offensively, he's largely played off ball thanks to Clark, but will take over as the starting point guard this season, and after averaging 9.5 points and 5.3 assists plus shooting a career high 35% from three in 2022-23, he looks ready to lead the offense as well. Also returning will be backcourt mate Isaac McKneely. The #63 recruit in the 2022 class, he averaged over 20 minutes a game last season, and will have an even bigger role in year two. While he doesn't make as big of an impact defensively as Beekman, he fits in well in Tony Bennett's pack line system, and he brings a key dimension to the offense with his ability to shoot from deep. He made 39.2% of his threes last season and looks like an elite floor spacer for the Hoos. He put up 6.7 points overall, and I'd expect that to be closer to double digits this season as he takes a starting job. Taine Murray is in year three of his college career after coming over from New Zealand, and he could see an increase in minutes as well thanks to his familiarity with the Virginia system on both sides of the ball, plus his ability to shoot from long range as well. The only other contributor from last season returning is Ryan Dunn, but he is definitely worth talking about. He's circled as a breakout candidate this season, and it's easy to see why. Despite being the only member of the Hoos 2022 class ranked outside the top 100 in the 247 Composite, Dunn earned 13 minutes a game last year. He is a powerful athlete in the frontcourt, and threw down more than his fair share of dunk last year. He put up 2.6 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks last season, but those numbers should skyrocket if he starts as expected. Defensively, he has potential as a complete gamewrecker thanks to his athleticism, and he has the ability to guard 3-5 in my opinion. He also made 31.3% of his threes, and if that number can get up to around 35%, he'll be a real threat on both ends of the floor. Don't forget either about Leon Bond, a wing who redshirted last season despite being a highly regarded recruit, ranked #68 in the 2022 class. He's a good athlete who can defend well, plus possesses good physical strength. He was better operating in the midrange and as a straight line driver in high school, but if he's improved his offensive game in his year off, he could find a lot of playing time as well. To supplement the returning group, Bennett has a strong group of imports from both the transfer portal and the high school ranks. While freshmen haven't traditionally played big roles for Bennett, we did see McKneely and Dunn gets minutes last year, and Elijah Gertrude and Blake Buchanon could follow in their footsteps. Ranked 64 and 76 in the 247 Composite respectively, each guy looks like they could be a key depth piece at their position for the Hoos this year. Gertrude is a combo guard from New Jersey, and he's got the frame and athleticism to be an impact defender, although he'll need to add some more muscle. He's a good ball handler, and could see backup PG minutes at times this year, although he needs to keep working on his jumper to reach his offensive potential. Buchanon, meanwhile, slots in the frontcourt, and the 6'9" freshman already has a good body type for the college game. He's a true post player who has a variety of moves and uses his strength on the block on both ends of the floor. He's also a willing screener and rebounder. He doesn't have much of a perimeter game, but he can get playing time by just doing the dirty work inside. Anthony Robinson is another freshman big man, although he is viewed as more a developmental piece. Ranked at #265 in the Composite, he was originally committed to South Florida before their coaching change. I wouldn't expect much out of him this year, and he could redshirt like Christian Bliss, a point guard who reclassified up a year, but announced his intentions to redshirt the 23-24 season. As for the transfers, Andrew Rohde and Jordan Minor join after starring in the mid-major ranks, while Dante Harris and Jacob Groves join from high majors. Rohde burst onto the scene seemingly out of nowhere last year at St. Thomas, where he was the Summit League Rookie of the Year and earned All-Summit honors. He put up 17.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.7 steals a game in his freshman season, and hit the portal. He had the ball in his hands a ton, and was the primary creator for the Tommies. He's 6'6", which gives him great size for a ball handler, and while he only shot 32% from deep last year, that is influenced by him having so much focus of the defense and having to take some contested shots off the dribble. I expect that number to go way up as he gets some more catch and shoot opportunities. Minor comes over after four seasons at Merrimack, where he started every game he played over the last three years. At 6'8", 220 lbs with good athleticism, he was too much for NEC bigs to handle on either end of the court by the time his senior season rolled around. On his career, Minor averages 12.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks, but his stats last year are even more impressive, with 17.4/9.4/2.6, plus 2.3 assists and 1.4 steals. He was the NEC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, and the big man will continue to be a defensive menace in Tony Bennett's scheme. Offensively, he is a traditional big who will post you up and score, and while I don't think that's going to be the main focus of Virginia's offense, it's an option they can go to if needed. It will be interesting to see how Rohde and Minor translate their success to the ACC level this year. I'm also very interested to see what Dante Harris does this year. He played his first two years at Georgetown, and had success. He was instrumental in getting the Hoyas to the NCAA Tournament in 2021, winning Big East Tournament MVP honors, and followed that up with 11.9 points, 4.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.5 steals as a sophomore. However, he sat out the beginning of 2022-23 and then entered the portal, ending up at Virginia midseason, where he didn't play. Harris should be the backup point guard, and he can provide a spark off the bench. However, he largely played on some Georgetown teams that were a mess and he was allowed to play through mistakes (2.4 turnovers a game in his career) and inefficiency (36.5% field goal percentage and 26.8% from three). I'm interested to see how sitting out last season impacted his development and see what he can do. Groves comes to Oklahoma by way of Eastern Washington. You may remember him and his brother Tanner starring for the Eagles during their NCAA Tournament run. Tanner was the more impactful of the two, with Jacob averaging 5.8 points and 2.8 rebounds over his career. He can play either the three or the four, and is a jack of all trades type. He doesn't excel anywhere, but he won't kill you in the minutes he does play either. 

My Thoughts

Outside of Duke, there may not be a team with a higher floor than Virginia in the ACC this season. I'd be pretty shocked if the Hoos finished outside of the top 5 in the conference this year, and if they were completely outside the NCAA Tournament conversation when March rolls around. The defense is just so good under Bennett, and I think he's got the pieces this year to have another really strong group on that end of the floor. Beekman will lead from the front at the point of attack, where he is a legitimate offensive disruptor that can change a game by bothering an opposing point guard. I also love the frontcourt duo of Ryan Dunn and Jordan Minor defensively. They should do good work on the boards and send a lot of shots back. Dunn specifically is a special athlete that can make a huge impact defensively, and with those three anchoring the defense, it's hard to imagine Virginia being anything other than a great defensive unit. That doesn't even count for guys like Leon Bond and Elijah Gertrude who have good defensive potential as well, or Isaac McKneely, who can hold his own on that end. The floor is high, but the questions on the ceiling come on the offensive end. I'm relatively optimistic that Virginia can find success there as well. I think Beekman will take a step forward this year as The Guy for this team, and the pieces they are surrounding him with should allow for success. McKneely and Rohde can space the floor, even though Rohde's numbers may not reflect that, Dunn and Gertrude will attack the rim on drives, and Minor and Buchanon will get post touches and crash the offensive glass. Dante Harris could also be a big factor here, but I'm somewhat skeptical, as his shooting from deep really worries me. I think the other big factor is the youth and inexperience with the program. This does feel like a bit of a transitional year, with most of the rotation being freshmen and sophomores. Tony Bennett asks a lot out of his players on both ends, and it may take time for everyone to understand what they need to do and gel. I do think having a point guard familiar with the system with help, but it's certainly something to watch. Plus, two major contributors are coming from the mid-major level and could not be as advertised. I think they'll be an ACC contender again and probably a top 25 team, but I doubt they can crack the elite of the country this year, and don't be surprised if it looks really ugly at times.