Baylor Season Preview

2022-23 Record: 23-11, 11-7 Big 12 (3rd)

Coach: Scott Drew, 21st Season

Departures: Adam Flagler, G (Graduation)

Keyonte George, G (Draft)

LJ Cryer, G (Transfer)

Flo Thamba, C (Graduation)
Dale Bonner, G (Transfer)

Arrivals: RayJ Dennis, G (Transfer from Toledo)

Jayden Nunn, G (Transfer from VCU)

Ja'Kobe Walter, W (Freshman)

Miro Little, G (Freshman)

Yves Missi, C (Freshman)

Projected Starting Lineup

PG: RayJ Dennis

SG: Jayden Nunn

SF: Ja'Kobe Walter

PF: Jalen Bridges

C: Jonathon Tchamwa Tchatchoua

Roster Breakdown

Scott Drew has transformed Baylor into a powerhouse in the Big 12, and he'll look to continue that success with the new look conference in 2023-24. However, he's got to navigate some roster turnover, specifically in the backcourt. Adam Flager graduated, Keyonte George was one and done, and LJ Cryer transferred to new conference rival Houston. Plus, backup guard Dale Bonner has gone onto Ohio State. There will be a lot of new faces, but Langston Love returns. He was a top 50 prospect out of high school in the 2021 class, but tore his ACL and missed all of his would-be freshman season. He returned to the court last year, but with the depth of the backcourt, he was allowed to ease back into things, averaging 16 minutes a game and putting up 6.3 points. He's got a well-built frame and can really defend his position, he's a shooting guard, and is a strong shooter, making 36.4% of his threes last season. Joining him in the backcourt will be four newcomers, transfers RayJ Dennis and Jayden Nunn and freshmen Ja'Kobe Walter and Miro Little. Dennis has plenty of experience, starting 109 games and playing in 129 over four seasons in college. He spent his first two at Boise State before heading to Toledo, and now he's taking his talents to Waco. After not being featured in Boise, he thrived in Toledo's offensive scheme, averaging 16.1 points, 5 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.2 steals in his two years in the MAC. The key for him will be his three point shot, which has improved over each of his four seasons, going from shooting 26% from deep as a freshman to 36.6% last year. Dennis took his game to another level on the whole last season, winning MAC Player of the Year on the back of 19.5 points, 5.8 assists, 4.3 boards, and 1.5 steals a game for the Rockets. He's not the best athlete, but he's crafty and has a bit of an old man game, preferring back downs and the mid range to score, and as his assist numbers reflect, is a willing passer while running the show. Nunn enters from VCU, and the defensive mentality at that program will translate really well to Baylor, who have a similar strong defensive identity. He's 6'4" with long arms, and is a good athlete. He'll pick guys up full court at times, and he's a real pest on the defensive end, getting 1.5 steals a game over his first two years. Offensively, he was the secondary ball handler for the Rams last season, and he can use his athleticism to get to the rim when he's handling the ball, but he's also more than capable of operating off ball and spotting up and hitting threes. Nunn put up 9.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists a game as a sophomore, plus he shot 40.4% from three. In addition to the two strong transfers, there's a lot of excitement in Waco surrounding the two freshmen. Ja'Kobe Walter is ranked ninth overall in the 2023 class in the 247Composite, and he is a bucket. At 6'5" with a frame that's already physically developed, Walter can score at all three levels. He handled the ball a lot in high school, and developed a strong pull up jumper from both three and the mid range. He will need to improve his shot selection and really buy in on the defensive end, but given the program he's playing at, the second point will be a requirement to get on the court. Little, meanwhile, hails from Finland, and has been playing with them at the FIBA World Cup, averaging 2.2 points, 2 asissts, and 1.3 rebounds in 8.7 minutes for the national team at the time of writing. Checking in at #44 in the 247Composite Rankings, Little is a combo guard, but unlike his name, has good size for the position at 6'4". He's at his best getting downhill and attacking the rim, and he's a willing playmaker for his teammates as well. He'll need to improve his three point shot, but he's ready to contribute in year one and his time with the national team should have prepared him for more of a reserve role, which he'll likely see in year one. Dantwan Grimes rounds out the backcourt, a transfer from Kilgore Community College who redshirted last year, but impressed at GLOBL Jam in Canada prior to last season, and he can be the backup point guard if Little has some development to do. Up front, the Bears actually return a lot. Jalen Bridges and Caleb Lohner will man the power forward spot this year, much as they did last season. Both men transferred into the program last season, with Bridges arriving from West Virginia and Lohner from BYU. Bridges started all 34 games for Baylor last year, putting up 10.3 points and 5.6 rebounds, while Lohner was his primary backup, averaging 3.2 points and 3.5 rebounds. Bridges is a little longer and more athletic, which makes him a little better on the perimeter than Lohner, but Caleb is stronger, and can bang inside. He can play some small ball 5 in emergencies, but I don't envision that happening often. Neither guy is a great shooter, with Bridges making 32.4% of his threes last year, and Lohner 25%. At center, Jonathon Tchamwa Tchatchoua will be in his sixth year in college this coming season. He played only 12 games last season while recovering from a knee injury. At his best, JTT (no way I'm typing that name out again) is a ferocious rebounder and defensive deterrent. In his Baylor career, he's put up 6.9 points and 5.6 rebounds a game. He plays with super high energy, and I think he'll be given the first crack at the starting center position. However, he isn't the only talented member of the front court. Josh Ojianwuna returns for his sophomore season, and he will be looking for a bigger role than last season. He played 13.1 minutes a game and averaged 4.2 points and 3.5 rebounds. He was the #158 prospect in the 2022 class, coming from overseas in Australia, and while he isn't super developed offensively, he's got a wingspan over 7 feet long and a strong, 6'10" frame that makes him a force defensively with room to grow on both ends still. He could make a leap from his freshman to sophomore year. Finally, freshman big Yves Missi joins, who ranks #37 in the 247Composite. He's another physical presence, also standing at 6'10", and he has great shot blocking instincts. His offensive game is mostly rim running and put backs right now, but he can still make an impact because of what he can do defensively. 

My Thoughts

I really like this Baylor team heading into the 2023-24 season. Scott Drew has established a really strong culture down in Waco, and it has consistently produced results. I actually really like what this team can be defensively. With the possible exception of RayJ Dennis, everyone on this team can be a plus defender, and Drew is going to get the buy in from all his guys on that end, and Baylor will be up in your face for 40 minutes. When you look at a potential lineup with Jayden Nunn, Ja'Kobe Walters, and Jalen Bridges, plus one of the bigs protecting the rim, it seems like it will be hard to score on the Bears. I actually think the Nunn pickup is flying really under the radar. A lot of the focus is on Dennis and Walters entering the program, and with good reason. Dennis was MAC Player of the Year and plays point guard, and Walter is a top 10 recruit, but Nunn feels like he fits right into this team with his ability to defend, plus I think he's undervalued with what he brings offensively. He can operate out of pick and rolls, he can spot up and shoot, and he can even take his man off the dribble. I think he'll be an unsung hero for this team. I do have some questions about the offense. The first comes from three point shooting. While Nunn and Love I trust to make shots from deep, there are questions about how Walter will translate from high school, where he could take bad shots and struggled with ineffiency, if RayJ Dennis' 2022-23 stats were maybe a high end outcome rather than the norm, and if one of Bridges or Lohner will be a more consistent threat from behind the arc in their second year in the program. If they don't get two of those three things to happen, I do worry that defenses will start to sag off and the offense could start to look like a slog. I do also wonder who the go-to scorer on this team is. When the game is on the line late in the second half, who do you draw up the play for? Is it Dennis, who is unproven at the high major level? Is it Walter, a freshman who we haven't seen play a college game yet? Or is it Bridges, who is a solid scorer, but not necessarily a first option, at least based on his career thus far. You can get by without a capital g Guy on your team, but to compete at the level Baylor wants to compete at, I do worry that it could hold them back if one of those three doesn't emerge as a clear cut best player. That was a downer, so I'll end on a couple of positive notes. Firstly, I'm really high on what the center position can be this year. I'm expecting Baylor to have three guys capable of contributing by the time Big 12 play rolls around, and I wouldn't even be shocked if JTT is the odd man out of the rotation. I like Josh Ojianwuna to take a sophomore leap, and Yves Missi might just be the most talented of the three. I also think they lead into my next point, which is that with Dennis, Nunn, and Little, and maybe even Grimes if he can play his way into the rotation, they have a lot of guys who can act as ball screen handlers, and I wouldn't be shocked if Baylor starts shredding teams in ball screen actions with a physical center setting a screen and having one of those three or four guys come off and either get an open shot for themselves or a teammate almost every time down the court. But, if we don't see Walter or Bridges (or Lohner) making threes consistently, it may not matter, which is where my earlier point comes back into play. Overall though, I think we could be looking at an elite defensive unit with some real offensive talent as well that should be competing at and around the top of the Big 12 once again.