Feast Week is coming up, and with that, we are going to get a chance to see a lot of high major teams match up. More and more people are going to be tuning into college basketball. They've likely seen that Florida isn't living up to expectation and Kentucky lost to Evansville, but I wanted to look at some starts that have flown under the radar, both good and bad, and see whether they are sustainable in the long term, especially as many of these teams will face big tests coming up. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange to get thoughts on more teams and get more up to date thoughts throughout early season tournaments.
Good
Arkansas
The Story So Far: Some coaches have arrived at new destinations and struggled early on. I'll get to Nate Oats later, but Jerry Stackhouse at Vanderbilt and Buzz Williams at Texas A&M look like they are in the midst of big rebuilds, Fred Hoiberg at Nebraska is off to a disaster start, and guys like Kyle Smith, Mike Anderson, and Steve Alford have struggled out of the gate. However, Eric Musselman and the Arkansas Razorbacks have come out hot. They are 4-0, and they have blown away their competition, winning by 18 or more points in every game thus far. Musselman's up-tempo style has immediately translated, Arkansas is averaging one of the fastest tempos in the country, ranking in the top 100 in the nation, and it has allowed their offense to thrive, especially sharpshooting sophomore Isaiah Joe. He is averaging 20.5 points a game while shooting 41% from three on roughly 10 attempts a game, and is coming off of a 33 point performance against Texas Southern. Junior guard Mason Jones is also scoring in bunches, averaging 18.3 points and scoring over 30 points himself, dropping 32 in the season opener against Rice. Those two have carried the offense, and the defense has also been excellent early. They are forcing turnovers at the third highest rate in the country, another Musselman staple, and the Hogs are holding opponents to shooting 11.6% from three on the year, the lowest percentage in the country.
Will Things Change?: I think Arkansas will regress a bit. None of their opponents have made more than 2 threes against the Razorbacks, something that will almost certainly change. With that, we will see what they are made of once teams start hitting shots from deep against them. They have also been able to get away with a weaker front line against the teams they have played thus far, as Texas Southern and Montana aren't going to exploit them on the glass. They have struggled on the defensive glass, and the underlying numbers could be a problem against stronger front lines. However, I buy the Musselman style making this team better and providing them with a style to let Joe and Jones thrive. His teams at Nevada pushed the pace and it worked for them, so I think it can be successful for them this year. Their first real test will be against Georgia Tech next Monday, although overlooking South Dakota would be foolish. The Coyotes are the best shooting team from three so far this year, making 51.1% of their attempts from deep, and one of the two teams will have to give. If the Razorbacks defense doesn't hold, then they could be in for an upset. Georgia Tech will provide a different test, with big man James Banks crashing the glass and more size than they have seen thus far. If they can win both of those games, there is a chance that they are very much for real. If they struggle, then it will be time to readjust the expectations for the upcoming year.
Auburn
The Story So Far: After losing key contributors Jared Harper, Bryce Brown, and Chuma Okeke over the offseason, there were questions from many, including myself, about what the Tigers would look like this year. However, they haven't missed a beat from their Final Four run. They currently sit at 5-0 and have wins over Davidson, South Alabama, and Colgate. While they aren't the greatest teams, all three are expected to be tournament contenders in their respective conferences and Auburn had convincing victories over the Wildcats and Raiders, and while they struggled against South Alabama on the road, they managed to find a way to victory. Guards Samir Doughty and J'Von McCormick have stepped into the large shoes left behind by Brown and Harper and so far look quite comfortable in them. Doughty leads the team with 18.8 points a game while shooting 44.4% from deep, and has posted 20 or more points three times this season. McCormick, meanwhile, is averaging 7 assists a game in the early going and had 16 in their win over Cal State Northridge. Those two will have to continue their strong play, as will freshman Isaac Okoro. He was a top recruit out of high school, but he's impressed immediately for the Tigers, especially defensively. His length causes a ton of problems on the perimeter and he is capable of guarding multiple positions, just like Okeke last year. He's also second on the team with 14.4 points a contest, and has scored in double digits in each of the first five games. In the front court, Daniel Purifoy provides the scoring, Austin Wiley the rebounding, and Anfernee McLemore the rim protection, giving them a solid rotation up front as well. Thus far, they haven't experienced a drop off and I even ranked them 24 in my latest Top 25.
Will Things Change?: I'm not as convinced the Tigers will be able to sustain their success. I'm not totally sold on everyone on their roster maintaining this level of play as the year continues. I do think guys like Doughty are going to be able to score, and Okoro will be an impact defender, but I think there will be some regression from guys like Purifoy and McCormick, and I'm not sure if the Tigers have the depth to withstand that. They don't have the toughest non-conference schedule, however. They take on New Mexico in the Legends Classic at the Barclay's Center next Monday, and then will play either Richmond or Wisconsin. The Lobos will be an interesting challenge, as both teams play up tempo styles and they will have to be able to outgun a talented New Mexico roster. They'll face a similar problem when they host North Carolina State in December, as they are another team that plays with pace. Meanwhile, Wisconsin, should they play them, would be the opposite, slowing down the game and forcing the Tigers to make plays in the half court. They also taken Furman, Saint Louis, and Lipscomb, who should all be solid teams that won't be pushovers by any stretch of the imagination. While the Tigers have been impressive thus far, they still have a lot to prove before they can truly be considered a Top 25 team and living up to last season's group.
Butler
The Story So Far: Unlike Arkansas, Butler has succeeded by slowing things down. They haven't ever played super quickly, but they are one of the 30 slowest teams in the nation and their offensive possessions are quite slow. This may be contributing to their excellent ball security this year, as they turn it over the eighth least in the nation. The backcourt of Aaron Thompson and Kamar Baldwin has done a great job of keeping the ball secure, and it has led to a top 25 offense per KenPom. Thompson is averaging 7.3 assists through their first four games, and they have four players averaging double digits thus far. Their defense has also been quite good, ranking in the top 40 in KenPom, and they are holding opponents to 23.2% shooting from three thus far. They also have a nice win over Minnesota, and they have beat their other three opponents, all mid majors, by 19 or more. Minnesota isn't the best team, but it's a Power 5 win and they managed to hold off a strong performance from Daniel Oturu to get the win. They seem like a really solid unit and they currently look like a Big East contender.
Will Things Change?: We will quickly learn whether or not the Bulldogs are a contender or pretender. After a game Friday against Morehead State, they head to Kansas City for the Hall of Fame Classic, where they will play Missouri and either Oklahoma or Stanford. They then play Mississippi, Florida, Baylor, and Purdue, meaning six of their remaining nine non-conference games come against power conference opponents. As with Arkansas, some regression to the mean for opposing three point shooters should be expected, although they have a solid defensive unit that should provide problems for their opponents. They will also need to prove they are more than just a solid 7 or 8 seed in March and are capable of more. As of now, their numbers look good and they have been taking care of business as expected. However, road trips to Mississippi and Baylor will be very challenging, Florida has struggled but is talented, and neutral court games against Missouri, Oklahoma or Stanford, and Purdue aren't guaranteed wins either, and we will see truly how good this team is. If they can hold their own and win a few of those games, then perhaps they have a real shot to make some noise in the Big East.
Utah
The Story So Far: The Utes have only played 3 games on the young season, but they have looked impressive during each of the three. They took down Nevada and Minnesota in close contests, and blew the doors off of Mississippi Valley State, scoring 143 points. That game has skewed the stats a bit, but early returns are promising for Utah. They languished in a weak Pac-12 last year, but they have many guys that have taken a step forward. As I said, the counting stats will be a bit hard to really gleam anything from given the one huge outlier, but Timmy Allen and Both Gach both look like they have taken steps forwards as sophomores. Allen currently leads the team with 22.7 points and 8.3 rebounds, and he has produced in all three games, with double doubles against Nevada and Minnesota, scoring 19 or more in both games. Gach, meanwhile, is a wing player who has made many leaps in his game. He had a triple double against MVSU, with 12/10/10, but like Allen, has scored 19 or more in the other two contests and looks much more comfortable scoring the ball this season. Riley Battin completes the trio of sophomore forwards, and while he hasn't been as impressive, he is averaging a rock solid 12.3 and 7.3 alongside Allen in the front court. Freshman guard Rylan Jones has started his college career strong, also recording a triple double against the Delta Devils with 10/10/11, and is currently averaging 9.7 points, 7.3 assists, and 5.7 rebounds a game this season, plus 2 steals a game as well. They look much more capable this year which should serve them well in a tougher Pac-12 this season.
Will Things Change?: I'm not so sure they can sustain this level of production. I do buy Allen and Gach being better this year, plus I think Jones will be a nice player for the rest of the year. However, they have a lot of inflated stats because of their demolition of Mississippi Valley State, and Nevada and Minnesota are a combined 3-6 on the year thus far. They are still nice wins for a team that wasn't expected to do much this year, but I don't know how much they really prove. We will quickly see what they are truly made of, as the Utes head to the Myrtle Beach Invitational, starting Friday. They take on Coastal Carolina in the first round, and should they win, they will likely face Baylor, in what should be a real test. Villanova, Mississippi State, and Tulane await on the other side of the bracket, and we should know a lot more about them after their trip to South Carolina. They also have matchups with in-state rival BYU, Kentucky, and San Diego State before conference play starts, and I think by time we get to Pac-12 play, this team will have come back down to Earth. But be sure to keep an eye on them in Myrtle Beach just in case they are capable of more.
Virginia Tech
The Story So Far: The Hokies lost not only their coach in Buzz Williams this offseason, but also multiple key contributors like point guard Justin Robinson and center Kerry Blackshear Jr among others. However, new coach Mike Young has them sitting at 5-0 with a conference win over Clemson already. The main reason why has been Landers Nolley. After being suspended last season, the redshirt freshman is averaging 20.2 points a game and has scored over 20 three times, including a 30 point game against Clemson. He looks like a burgeoning star in the ACC, and his play is the main reason behind their early season success. Returners PJ Horne and Wabissa Bede have also provided consistent play for the Hokies, and their experience will be vital as the season moves on.
Will Things Change?: I think this team still isn't very good. While their 5-0 start is impressive and they look like they have an All-ACC caliber player in Nolley, a lot of the stats point towards a drop off. They have struggled to get to the foul line, which is typically indicative of a team that isn't attacking the rim a lot. They also have been deadeyes from three, making 42.2% of their shots from deep on the year, and that is a number that is primed to regress. Still, if they are going to be better than expected and get out of the basement of the ACC this year, they will have show it over their next four games. They are traveling to Maui for the Maui Invitational, and they open the tournament with Michigan State. I think it's tough ask for any team to beat the Spartans, and they then have a game with either Georgia or Dayton, and Kansas, Chaminade, BYU, and UCLA await on the other side of the bracket. With the exception of D-II Chaminade, all of those are quality opponents that will provide a real test for the Hokies. After that, they face Duke in another conference matchup. If they can hang tough with the Michigan State's and Duke's of the world and pick up a win or two in Hawaii, then perhaps this hot start is for real. If not, they will be much more in line with what was expected heading into the season.
Bad
Alabama
The Story So Far: The Crimson Tide poached Nate Oats from Buffalo this offseason, and there was a lot of optimism surrounding the season pretty quickly. With some key returners, a good grad transfer, and a top recruiting class, plus a new, exciting coach, fans of the Tide had a lot of reasons to be excited. However, two key newcomers, freshman Juwan Gary and JuCo transfer James Rojas, both forwards, went down with season ending injuries. That left them with a lack of depth up front, and was enough for me to bump them out of the preseason Top 25. They then opened the season with a loss to Penn, and even after that game, I tweeted that I thought they were going to be fine since I thought that they missed Herb Jones, who went down with a minor injury in that game, and they were playing hard and looked like they were playing the way Nate Oats wanted. Then they lost by 14 on the road against Rhode Island, and they looked completely lost. They weren't playing as hard as they did against Penn and pretty much rolled over once the Rams got going. They were sloppy and turned it over 22 times, and Bama looked flat out bad. They then struggled to put away Furman, only winning by 8, and they currently sit at 2-2. James "Beetle" Bolden, a highly coveted grad transfer, has struggled early, leaving them heavily reliant on Kira Lewis for offense. They've also struggled to shoot then ball out of the gate, making less than 30% of their shots from deep early in the year, and turnovers have been a huge issue, with three players averaging more than 3 a game.
Will Things Change?: I think they will. They have the look of a Nate Oats team, playing at the second fastest pace in the nation, and guys like Kira Lewis and Jaden Shackelford look very good in transition. Lewis especially has been very good to start the season, averaging 21.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.8 steals, and shooting a team high 40% from three through 4 games. Shackelford is a microwave scorer as a freshman, averaging 15.8 a game, and he looks like he can be an effective second banana. Still, they have their issues. Lewis is averaging 4.3 turnovers a game, and he and the rest of the team look a little out of control at times. I think Oats needs to ease up on the gas a little bit and let his guys play with a little more control while still running. Meanwhile, Shackelford is struggling defensively, as quite a few guys on the roster are. The Tide need Bolden and John Petty to be more consistent scorers and especially shooters, as their floor spacing can open up a lot for Lewis to attack and create. They will have chances to establish themselves, playing in the Battle 4 Atlantis next week. They open with North Carolina, which would be a huge win, and then play either Michigan or Iowa State, followed by one of Gonzaga, Southern Miss, Seton Hall, or Oregon. I think they can come back from the Bahamas with at least one win and they will eventually right the ship and end up as a tournament team.
Davidson
The Story So Far: The Wildcats entered the season with Top 25 buzz. They had Jon Axel Gudmundsson and Kellan Grady returning along with multiple high level role players in Bob McKillop's offensive system, and there was a lot of hope they could be an at-large contender. They opened the season with back to back losses to Auburn and Charlotte, and both were concerning. Auburn's length and athleticism defensively really bothered Davidson and they took Gudmundsson and Grady pretty much completely out of the game. Their ability to do that was very concerning for me as those two are supposed to be stars and get buckets when their teams needs them to. Then they fell to a Charlotte team that wasn't projected to be very good, and losing by 13 was a real alarm bells ringing type moment for me. Their lack of size has been a huge issue, as they offer little to no shot blocking ability and their rebounding isn't exactly a strength either, although they do a good job of gang rebounding as a team. They've won their last two games, and looked quite good against Nevada, but the first two games are still issues.
Will Things Change?: I'm not entirely convinced that their recent results are fully indicative of the true Davidson team. Nevada themselves are worthy of inclusion in this section, but the 20 point blowout was still encouraging. They have been much better offensively, as Grady looks the part of an alpha dog scorer, but Gudmundsson doesn't look like the same guy as he did last year. Additionally, their lack of size is a legitimate concern for me. Luka Brajkovic is a good post scorer, especially in this offensive system, but he's not a very good defender or rebounder and I think teams with good bigs can really exploit this team. The offense looks legit to me, but the defense could hold them back. They have a someone challenging schedule before the Atlantic 10 starts, with a game against Wake Forest on Friday. The Demon Deacons aren't exactly world beaters, but it would still be a nice win over an ACC team, and the same could be said for Vanderbilt when they play them in December. However, the Orlando Invitation will be the real test for the Wildcats. They take on Marquette in the first round, which would be a huge win for them, and could play USC, Maryland, Temple, Texas A&M, and Harvard in the tournament. Winning some of those games would be big for this team, and could prove that the preseason expectations were justified. However, I think they struggle a little bit and end up offering more questions than answers about their play.
Grand Canyon
The Story So Far: Grand Canyon has been an interesting team over the past few years, packing their arena and known for having a great student section while competing in the WAC, yet always coming up short of New Mexico State. The Lopes entered the year once again with hopes of winning the WAC, and the possibility of Jaylen Fisher being eligible had some murmurs of the Top 25. I even considered it myself had he been eligible, although he hasn't been. Still, they had guys like Carlos Johnson and Alessandro Lever back and newcomers Jovan Blackshear and Lorenzo Jenkins providing buzz, so they looked like they would push high majors and potentially be a WAC threat. They then opened the year with a loss to Division II Davenport to open the year. They followed that up with losses to Illinois and San Diego State. The home loss to Davenport, by double digits no less, was incredibly concerning, and while they have won their next two games, they were over pretty bad teams. They don't look the part of a team that can play against good opponents or even compete at the top of the WAC this season, so there is plenty of early concern for the Lopes.
Will Things Change?: It's tough to say. Getting Jaylen Fisher eligible would be massive, as he was a legitimately good Big 12 guard, and he would dominate the WAC in my opinion. But I don't see them living up to any sort of expectations for the rest of the year. They have been pretty abysmal offensively, struggling to make shots and grab rebounds, and their defense hasn't been great either. They are talented, with multiple high major transfers, and Dan Majerle institutes NBA concepts in Phoenix. They have chances to make a statement, as they head to the Paradise Jam, where they face off with Valparaiso on Friday. From there, they will play either Fordham or Nevada, and Cincinnati, Western Kentucky, Illinois State, and Bowling Green await on the other side of the bracket. Outside of Fordham, those are all really solid teams and wins would go a long way to proving that this team is better than they have showed thus far. I'm not super optimistic they can do that, but I'll be keep an eye on them.
Illinois
The Story So Far: The Fighting Illini struggled in Brad Underwood's first year on the sidelines, but there was a lot of hope that things would improve in Year 2. Ayo Dosunmu had NBA buzz at the point, and fellow sophomore Giorgi Bezhanishvili was a good post option in his first year. Plus, they added in top 50 center Kofi Cockburn and had other solid returners like Andre Feliz and Trent Frazier. Given Underwood's system, with a hectic press and a lot of transition basketball, the added depth and an extra year of familiarity gave a lot of hope that things would be better. And they are 4-1 to start the season. However, things have been a lot more worrisome than the record would indicate, at least for me. They had to go to overtime with Nicholls State in their opening game, struggled to pull away from Grand Canyon, and then got absolutely demolished by Arizona. The Arizona game was very eye opening, as they lost by 21 and didn't look like they belonged on the floor with an actual good team. The pressing defense is still pretty weak and doesn't create turnovers like it's supposed to, and the offense has struggled. Dosunmu just hasn't taken the step forward he needed to and the whole team has some real issues. They don't shoot it well and turn it over too often, which is worrisome given they use a lot of guards, and thus far Cockburn has been their best player. However, in the one game against a team with a big that could hang with him, Arizona, was easily his worst, and he will encounter a lot more size and strength in the Big Ten.
Will Things Change?: I'm not sure. The offense has been pretty bad, and they need to figure out a lot of half court creation. Dosunmu needs to be better, and the whole teams needs to cut down on their turnovers. I don't know who is making shots from the perimeter consistently on this team, and that is very concerning for me. Additionally, they have a press that is supposed to create turnovers and give them easy transition buckets, which would be a great way to alleviate their half court concerns. However, they are in the bottom third of college basketball in turnover percentage and have really struggled to create steals. They don't play in a tournament, but a five game stretch in December where they take on Miami, Maryland, Michigan, Old Dominion, and Missouri will tell us a lot about this team. They could easily go 3-2 or even 4-1 if everything clicks, but I could see that being a 1-4 stretch and the alarm bells really going off. For me, the wins have covered up a lot of issues, but I'd be concerned if I were an Illinois fan.
UTSA
The Story So Far: This may seem like a weird inclusion on the list. I almost put Nevada in this spot, but I wanted to talk about the Roadrunners. They entered the year with some hype as a Conference USA contender given their two backcourt stars: Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace. Those two can really fill it up and their scoring ability was a big reason that many, including myself, thought they'd compete in Conference USA and perhaps even knock off a high major if those two got going. Instead, they have started off 0-5 this year and been pretty atrocious this season. Jackson is averaging 23.6 points, and Wallace has 13 himself, but beyond those two, everything is bad. They have no one else who can score, they can't rebound, defense is a huge issue, and they haven't shot it well at all. Losing to Oklahoma and Utah State was pretty expected, but going 0-3 at the Sunshine Slam and not getting inside of the single digits in any game yet this season is incredibly worrisome. They just don't look even half way competent and things are not good in San Antonio.
Will Things Change?: It doesn't look that way. The hope with this team coming into the year was that their offense would be good enough to outweigh the concerns on the interior and defensively, and that just hasn't happened. I think they are going to continue to crash and burn, and things will be pretty bad for the Roadrunners. If they can knock off Oregon State, the one remains top 100 KenPom top 100 team in their non-conference schedule, then perhaps things will change. I just really don't see it and I'm out on the Roadrunners fully this year.
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