The SEC had been known as a football conference that Kentucky dominates every year, but it has become much more than that recently. It has become a deep conference filled with talent both on the sidelines and on the court. Teams outside of Kentucky have been very good recently, as evidenced by South Carolina and Auburn making Final Four runs within the last three years. The middle of the conference this year is incredibly close, as teams 3-11 or even 3-12 could end up separated by just a few games. Let me know your thoughts on the conference on Twitter @ThreeManWeave, and let's talk some SEC basketball.
The Contenders
1. Kentucky
Starting 5: Ashton Hagans, Tyrese Maxey, Kahlil Whitney, EJ Montgomery, Nick Richards
Why They'll Be Good: Stop me if you've heard this before, but Kentucky has a good freshman class. They have the second ranked recruiting class in the nation, trailing just Memphis. They welcome two five stars with Tyrese Maxey and Kahlil Whitney entering the fold, and four stars Keion Brooks, Johnny Juzang, and Dontaie Allen, plus John Calipari grabbed Bucknell grad transfer Nate Sestina for good measure. The class joins four returning players, and they should form a very nice group. Maxey is going to be scoring points this year in a variety of ways. He's a good shooter, has a nice floater, and can get to and finish at the rim. Whitney, Brooks, and Allen are all of very similar molds, being athletic wings who are going to play above the rim. Whitney has the most developed body of the three, and he should be fun to watch in transition, as will Brooks. They are both solid enough shooters so teams can't completely ignore them from behind the arc either. That's where Juzang comes in, as he has a sweet stroke and will be more of a designated shooter. While he has athletic ability and will contribute in other ways, his ability to knock down shots from behind the arc will get him playing time. Nate Sestina broke out at Bucknell last year, averaging 15.8 points and 8.5 rebounds, but the real interesting part for Kentucky is his shooting. He knocked down 38% of his threes, and he'll be relied on to stretch the floor as a forward. He'll be competing for minutes will EJ Montgomery and Nick Richards in the front court, two holdovers from last year's team. Both were five stars out of high school, and are going to have even bigger roles this year. Richards is dealing with an ankle injury at the moment, but he's an elite shot blocker and lob catcher. Montgomery is more intriguing, as he has a lot of untapped potential. He moves well for his size, and can operate on the perimeter. He has a bit of a jumper, and a good variety of post moves. He's a guy I think can have a real breakout year for the Wildcats. Ashton Hagans completes the returning crew, and while he'll play point guard and lead the offense with his ability to drive to the rim and skill in transition, his real value comes defensively, where this team should be very good. He harasses opposing lead guards, making life hell for them. Maxey competes hard and plays with great energy on that end, and the freshmen wings have tremendous length to dissuade drives and make plays. Montgomery can defend on the perimeter and in the post, and Richards is going to erase everything at the rim. They have devastating potential defensively, and they will look to get out in transition and use their athletic advantage to get easy buckets.
Why They Won't: Shooting is still a concern for Kentucky. While Maxey, Juzang, and Sestina should be able to shoot, there are still questions. Hagans offers nothing as a jump shooter, and defenses will let Whitney, Brooks, and Montgomery take jumpers all day given the alternative. They also really only have three front court players, and none of them are elite offensive players. Montgomery could get there, but Richards is more of just a dunker and Sestina will likely just be shooting from the perimeter and getting easy looks at the rim. They could have some of the wings play as small ball fours, but depth there is a concern
X-Factor: After coming in as the ninth ranked recruit in the country, EJ Montgomery failed to make a big impact in Lexington. He was stuck behind PJ Washington, Reid Travis, and Nick Richards, and only played 15 minutes a game. He will likely exceed that this year, and he could end up being a crucial piece for the Cats. He has an intriguing mix of size and skill, both on the interior and the perimeter. He has a decent jump shot, although he needs to improve it. Right now, he is best catching the ball in the short corner where he can either take a short jumper or drive past his man. His defensive potential is immense thanks to his good athleticism that could let him guard on the perimeter, and his long arms offer potential as a shot blocker. He needs to step up this year and establish himself as a threat on both ends. If he can be an average shooter and put together his physical gifts, he'll be a star this year. If not, Nate Sestina could eat into his minutes while some of the wings play the four as well in smaller lineups. I'm buying a breakout season from EJ, but it's certainly not a guarantee.
Final Verdict: I'm really high on Kentucky this year. People don't give John Calipari enough credit for how well we develops talent and puts his players in a position to succeed. This defense should be absolutely elite, like best in the country level, and I think Maxey becomes a shooter from the perimeter and high scorer immediately, and I think Whitney and Brooks are going to be fun to watch. The Wildcats will be one of the best teams in the country again and the elite talent will lead them to an SEC title.
2. Florida
Starting 5: Andrew Nembhard, Noah Locke, Scottie Lewis, Keyontae Johnson, Kerry Blackshear Jr
Why They'll Be Good: The Gators have become a media darling with their new additions, and they look like one of the best teams in the nation. They bring back three rising sophomores in Andrew Nembhard, Noah Locke, and Keyontae Johnson, plus bigs Dontay Bassett and Gorjok Gak, who are both currently injured. When I think of Nembhard, the word that comes to mind is "cerebral". He's an excellent passer who has a ton of creativity with his deliveries and he'll look to get everyone involved. Locke is a knockdown shooter, he made 38% as a freshman, and a good defender who should be a factor on this team. Johnson is a great athlete that should be an undersized four because of the way he attacks the glass and his strength on the defensive end. He can also stretch the floor out a bit and attacks the rim really well when he can get past his man, so he'll be a fun piece. They also add a top 10 recruiting class in the nation, headlined by two star talents, and one of the best grad transfers on the market, if not the best. Starting with the proven quantity, Kerry Blackshear comes in from Virginia Tech, and he will hold down the front court for the Gators. He's an excellent offensive player with his ability to score in the post, from the foul line, and even out to three, and has good passing for a big man. He should add a new dimension to the Gators' attack and it will be interesting to see how Mike White chooses to use him. As for the freshmen, Scottie Lewis and Tre Mann are expected to be immediate impact players for Florida this season. Lewis is a dynamic wing player who is great at attacking the rim and he's expected to provide some excellent defense on the wing. Meanwhile, Mann is a scoring guard that can play point when Nembhard is off the floor and play next to him. He's very good in the pick and roll, and he'll play a good amount off the bench. Four star big Omar Payne will provide depth up front while the two returners are out, and he should be good on the boards.
Why They Won't: Depth is a real concern. Outside of the top six guys, my projected starting five and Mann, there is a huge drop-off. Payne and Bassett are fine depth bigs, but the wing rotation is very shallow, and there will likely be a lot of looks with three guards, which could hurt the defense, since Lewis and Johnson project to be the two best defenders on the roster. Mike White also needs to prove he has the coaching chops, as many people are questioning his ability to lead the Gators on a deep March run.
X-Factor: After a long recruitment, Kerry Blackshear Jr decided on heading to Florida to finish his college career. He was a star at Virginia Tech last year, scoring 14.5 points and grabbing 7.5 rebounds a game. He should be a key piece of the Gators offense this year. He's got a ton of talent on the offensive end, being very comfortable playing in the low or high post and having a decent jump shot as well. He will provide a dominant big man the likes that Florida hasn't seen under Mike White, and White will have to prove he can integrate him smoothly into the flow of his offense, which is fairly perimeter orientated. Blackshear can pass well for a big and is very versatile, so I don't anticipate it being a problem, but White will have to figure out how to lose him best and keep him on the floor given the lack of other good bigs on the roster.
Final Verdict: I'm a big fan of Florida this year. They have possibly the best top six players in the country, and they will be a lot of fun to watch this season. Nembhard is one of my personal favorites, and I'm very excited to see Lewis and Blackshear take their talents to Gainesville. I have some slight concerns with depth and defense, but this will be an elite team and should give Kentucky all they can handle.
The Tournament Teams
3. Mississippi
Starting 5: Devontae Shuler, Breein Tyree, Blake Hinson, KJ Buffen, Khadim Sy
Why They'll Be Good: They are basically the Creighton of the SEC. If you didn't read my Big East Preview, I mentioned my love for watching Creighton because of the up tempo, buckets first, defense second style they play that is very enjoyable to watch. Kermit Davis played in a similar way last year, and the Rebels will likely repeat that this season. Devontae Shuler and Breein Tyree return to lead what promises to be an exciting backcourt. Tyree is an electric scorer, capable of pulling up from anywhere and also using his speed to get into the lane. Meanwhile, Shuler is a good scorer in his own right, but is more of a facilitator and defensive minded guard than Tyree. Those two will be the offensive hub of the team, and freshman Austin Crowley and JuCo transfer Bryce Williams should fit into the backcourt rotation as well. Crowley is a great athlete who has ball handing ability, while Williams was a deadeye shooter in junior college. On the wing, look for sophomore Blake Hinson to be lighting it up from deep. He is capable of going off at any time, like he did against Mississippi State last year when he poored in 26 points, and his long range shooting at his size makes him a matchup problem. He could see time at the four, as will KJ Buffen, another sophomore who will be counted on the make improvements as a rebounder. Up front, former Virginia Tech and junior college center Khadim Sy comes in. He will be providing the size and interior presence on defense, while being a good pick and roll player offensively. Expect this team to put up quite a few points this season.
Why They Won't: They take the whole defense second thing a bit too far. Opposing teams lit up Mississippi, as evidenced by their drubbing at the hands of Oklahoma in the NCAA Tournament. Their opposition shot 37.4% from three against them, which is really a testament to how bad their perimeter defense was. Kermit Davis has his team sell out for steals, and a lot of the time, it just didn't work. They also lack size on the interior, as after Sy, there isn't really anyone who is going to contribute size, unless freshman Sammy Hunter is ready to play, and he's only 6'9". The defense will be better with the additions of Sy and Crowley, but I wouldn't expect this team to be grinding out victories on that end.
X-Factor: Mississippi loses Dominik Olejniczak from their front court, and Kermit Davis will be relaying on Khadim Sy to play up front. He started his career at Virginia Tech, and started 28 games as a freshman for the Hokies before moving to junior college. He was dominant at Daytona State, and was one of the top junior college recruits in the country this year. Sy will provide some rebounding and shot blocking to the front court, and any offense he can provide would be great as well. His biggest role will be to block shots on any drives if the Rebels pressure defense gets broken, so look for him to be a key piece on the defensive end. He will need to stay on the court, as they other front court options aren't great, and Sy will need to prove that he is an effective player this season and anchor the defense.
Final Verdict: Man I like Ole Miss this year. I actually originally had them ranked lower, but when writing the preview, I had to move them up. I think their offense is going to be awesome this year, and the addition of Khadim Sy is huge. He should improve the defense and give them a solid interior presence, which makes a fairly big difference in my opinion. I love their guards, especially Tyree, and the offense should be as potent as ever. Plus, Kermit Davis is a great coach that should maximize the talent on this roster. I think they ride their high scoring ways to a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
4. Georgia
Starting 5: Donnell Gresham, Anthony Edwards, Christian Brown, Jaykwon Walton, Rayshaun Hammonds
Why They'll Be Good: Like the two teams ahead of them, Georgia has a good recruiting class, ranked tenth in the nation. The main attraction in Athens this year will be five star guard Anthony Edwards, who is in the conversation for being not only the best recruit in the class, but the number one pick in the NBA Draft next June. He is a prolific scorer that gets it done at all three levels, and will likely have the ball in his hands quite a lot. Look for him to be one of the best scorers in the SEC and the country. Joining him are four star wings Christian Brown, Jaykwon Walton, and Toumani Camara, plus four star guard Sahvir Wheeler and three star big Rodney Howard. Brown, Walton, and Camara are all of similar molds, with college ready athleticism and length with questionable offensive games. Meanwhile, Wheeler is undersized, but incredibly quick with the ball in his hands and he should find minutes at the point guard spot thanks to his ability to get to the rim. All of these players are going to be great in transition, which is where the Bulldogs will thrive this year. As for Howard, he should be able to carve out a role as a rebounder with good size. Also incoming is Donnell Gresham, a transfer from Northeastern who will provide solid passing, ball handling, shooting, and defense next to Edwards. Those two fit great because of their complementary nature, as Gresham will take a backseat and let Edwards score while he does the little stuff. The returning cast is led by big man Rayshaun Hammonds. He has some touch from outside, and can score in the post. He isn't the best rebounder, but he is a capable enough defender against fellow bigs. Former four star recruit Amanze Ngumezi will also get minutes in the front court and there's hope he can provide more of presence on the glass. Tyree Crump, Tye Fagan, and Jordan Harris will provide back court depth for the Bulldogs, although one of them will likely fall out of the rotation completely. Crump is the most likely to get on the court thanks to his ability to score, especially from deep.
Why They Won't: There are quite a few real worries here. First off, they really lack size. Hammonds and Ngumezi are both just 6'9", and while Howard is 6'11", there are concerns about his readiness for the college game. They could struggle against teams with dominant bigs or that like to crash the glass, as their rebounding and interior defense aren't going to be great. For that matter, their defense on the whole will be pretty good. The wings have length and potential to be good defenders, but it's always hard to count on freshman for consistent defensive production, especially on the perimeter, and Gresham is OK at best, especially against the better athletes and players he'll see in the SEC. Shooting is also an issue, as Edwards and Gresham are the only ones who can be counted on to get consistent buckets from behind the arc. None of the other freshmen have reputations as good shooters from deep, and Hammonds will need to prove that last year wasn't a fluke from behind the arc.
X-Factor: Anthony Edwards is going to gather all of the headlines for Georgia this year, but fellow freshman Christian Brown will be just as key to the Bulldogs. A top 70 recruit out of Oak Hill Academy, one of the most prestigious prep schools for basketball in the nation, and he will likely be starting right away for the Bulldogs. He is excellent in transition, using his length and athleticism to glide to the rim and finish. He also has a solid mid range game, which should allow him to be an effective option in the half court as well. However, he will need to prove he can make shots from long range to truly be effective. Edwards likes to attack the rim, and he will need some competent floor spacers around him to truly do that. Brown has an OK jump shot, and if he can get it out to three, he could be a very effective option next to Edwards. If not, there are two other freshman wings that will be looking for minutes, and if they can shoot, Brown could struggle to find the floor. He will be good in transition, but he needs to do more than that this year.
Final Verdict: From what I've seen, this is a controversial ranking of Georgia. Most people are considerably lower than I am, and I'll admit, in general, I'm a sucker for talent. There are questions about this team, especially defensively, but I'm going to buy the talent of this team shining through. Tom Crean has had dynamic, high scoring guards before, even heard of Dwayne Wade or Victor Oladipo, and I think Edwards will be just as good. He's super legit, and I think he's going to be the number one pick in the draft after his performance this year. I'm betting on one of the freshman wings, probably Brown but who knows who it will end up being, stepping up in the half court and providing offense, but it's a bet I'm willing to make. The other teams that I have below them have questions as well, and I'll take my chances with a super talented group led by a potential All American. Will I be wrong? Maybe. Probably, even, but I think this roster fits together fairly nicely and they have a chance to be one of the better teams in the SEC and head to March Madness.
5. LSU
Starting 5: Skylar Mays, Javonte Smart, Marlon Taylor, Emmitt Williams, Trendon Watford
Why They'll Be Good: The Tigers have a lot of scrutiny surrounding the program after all of the stuff with Will Wade and the FBI, but on the court, they have a nice group of players. They'll be led by the strong perimeter trio of Skylar Mays, Javonte Smart, and Marlon Taylor. Smart and Mays will share the ball handling duties as well as the primary scoring responsibilities. Both can get to the rim and finish, although neither is a great shooter. Smart is my pick to step up and be the go-to scorer now that Tremont Waters and Naz Reid have left the program. In a game in which Waters missed against Tennessee, Smart scored 29 points. He should be a dynamic scorer this year, and Mays will certainly chip in as well. Meanwhile, Taylor seems like he's a character in Mario and does the double jump. I mean, just look at this compilation of his dunks. He's clearly a great athlete and he will undoubtably provide ESPN with some more highlights this year. Up front, Emmitt Williams and Darius Days are back. Both are tenacious rebounders who get a bunch of second chance points by outworking their opponents and having a nose for the ball despite being slightly undersized for four men. The Tigers also have five star freshman Trendon Watford coming in to help with the front court scoring. He's incredibly versatile, as he can score on the interior thanks to a 7'4" wingspan and has a good shooting stroke from outside. He also offers some ball handling and playmaking abilities, which makes him even harder to guard. LSU also has three star guard James Bishop, known as a talented scorer, and Charles Manning, a junior college transfer that should help with outside shooting, entering the program, and both with carve out roles right away.
Why They Won't: I'm very concerned about their performance defensively. They lack size on the interior, with Williams and Days both being 6'6" and Watford only standing 6'9". They will miss the shot blocking abilities of Kavell Bigby-Williams and the physicality of Naz Reid, as they could get torn up inside and on the glass. Despite how well Williams and Days attack the offensive boards, they are more focused on leaking out for fast break opportunities, and LSU struggles to get defensive boards, something that will be even more of a problem this year. The defense in the back court isn't exactly great either, as Mays and Smart struggled to stay in front of the quick guards the SEC seems to grow on trees. Shooting will also be a concern, as only Darius Days shot better than 32% from three from the retuning cast. Manning and Watford should help that somewhat, but they need the two lead guards to improve their shooting.
X-Factor: With Tremont Waters gone, someone will need to step and lead the team in scoring. While Skyler Mays is the leading returning scorer, sophomore Javonte Smart could end up being the guy for Will Wade this year. He was a top 35 recruit in the class of 2018, and looks like he's in line for a breakout season this year. He scored just a tick over 11 points a game as a freshman, and Smart will look to be even better this year. He'll have to improve as a shooter after only making 31% of his shots from deep as a freshman. As I mentioned, he stepped up while Waters was out and had a huge game against Tennessee, and will need to deliver performances like that more consistently for LSU to be good this year.
Final Verdict: I'm quite worried about the front court of LSU. They just lack size, and they were spoiled with Naz Reid and Kavell Bigby-Williams last year. Offensively, it should be a problem, as Watford fits Will Wade's style and the guards should be able to score enough. Despite Williams and Days being good rebounders offensively, the team as a whole struggles on the defensive glass and they need to make more of an effort there. It may end up not mattering, since the perimeter defense isn't all that good either and they lack a shot blocker. I don't mean to pick on LSU, but they seem very similar to Georgia to be, except without the star power of Edwards, and people seem to be much higher on this team than the Bulldogs. I really like the offensive potential here and I think Will Wade will lead them back to the tournament, but there are concern. Geaux Tigers.
6. Alabama
Starting 5: Kira Lewis, James Bolden, John Petty, Herb Jones, Galin Smith
Why They'll Be Good: New head coach Nate Oats is coming from a successful career at Buffalo, and I think he's going to make this team a lot better. They have some guys that fit the style he likes to play, and I expect the Crimson Tide to be getting up and down the court. They have a bevy of guards, led by Kira Lewis. As a 17 year old freshman last year, he was very impressive and will look to take another step this year to a potentially elite level. He's a blur in transition, which as I mentioned is how Oats likes to play, and can shoot it from deep. John Petty also returns, and if you look up "streaky" in the dictionary, it's just a picture of him. When he's hitting his threes, he's hard to guard. Just ask Tennsee, who he dropped 30 against when he got hot. When he isn't making shots, he's basically a non-factor. If he can become a more consistent shooter, then watch out. James "Beetle" Bolden arrives from West Virginia, and he should be better this year. He had to do a lot of shot creation and ball handling for the Mountaineers, but he's better as a pure scorer. He can hit shots from deep like nobody's business, and he will add more scoring punch to an already prolific backcourt. Freshmen Jaylen Forbes and Jaden Schackleford, both four stars, should add even more scoring, as both of them can shoot as well. Shackleford offers more on ball skills, while Forbes is better on the defensive end, but both of them are wired to score. Those five should get buckets all year long, and they make Alabama a dangerous offensive team. Herb Jones should start as well, and while he doesn't offer as much offensively, he's an absolute lockdown defender. He has great size and length, and he'll be dispatched on the opposing team's best player most nights. Galin Smith, Alex Reese, and freshman Raymond Hawkins will split time up front. Reese is a good shooter and could see some time at the four as well thanks to his shooting ability, while Smith and Hawkins will have to be good rebounders, given the loss of Donta Hall.
Why They Won't: Speaking of Hall, he is sneakily one of the biggest losses in the country. He graduated, and the Tide don't have an easy answer. Smith has averaged 12.7 points a game in his college career, and he needs to prove he can play significant minutes, while Hawkins is more of a long term project who is just inside of the top 200. Reese offers little outside of his shooting, and I don't think those two can replicate Hall's ability on the glass and as a shot blocker. They could have relied on Juwan Gary and James Rojas two bigger wings who likely would have seen a lot of time at the four, for help on the glass, but both suffered season ending injuries in the preseason. Their losses will be felt as they hurt the depth, which is especially bad in a system like Oats' where there is a lot of running and players get tired more easily. It could show on the defensive end, where Oats relies on a high pressure, man to man system and players legs could be gone later in games and they lower their effort levels. They will have to address those concerns to reach their full ceiling this year.
X-Factor: There may not be a streakier player in the country than John Petty. As I mentioned earlier, the junior guard can get hot in a hurry. He made five or more threes four times last year, and averaged 23 points in those games. However, he also failed to make a three in ten contests, and scored only 5 points on average in those games. He will need to become much more consistent this year, as he will be one of the key scoring options on Alabama. Nate Oats will be relying on him to be a consistent option from deep, and he can't be an effective floor spacer when throwing up bricks for roughly a third of the Tide's games. If he can finally be a more consistent player, then Alabama could even push up towards the Top 25 this year.
Final Verdict: I'm very optimistic Alabama will be good this year. Their backcourt has the potential to be one of the best in the country, and I think Kira Lewis is on the verge of being known nationally. As long as Petty and Beetle Bolden provide the shooting they are expected to, then the offense should be able to get points. I do worry about the lack of size and depth, but I think the Crimson Tide have enough firepower to make an appearance in the tournament.
The Bubble Teams
7. Auburn
Starting 5: J'Von McCormick, Samir Doughty, Isaac Okoro, Anfernee McLemore, Austin Wiley
Why They'll Be Good: After nearly losing to New Mexico State in the first round, Auburn got hot and went on a run to the Final Four in last year's NCAA Tournament. They lose multiple key players from that team, with star guards Jared Harper and Bryce Brown and versatile defensive wing Chuma Okeke departing, but they bring back some of the pieces from last year's team. J'Von McCormick and Samir Doughty will be relied upon to make up for the loss of Harper and Brown, and they showed flashes of being able to do so last year. McCormick played his best basketball down the stretch, including a season high 16 points in the New Mexico State game. He is more of a solid floor general, but he has the ability to step up as a scorer. In limited minutes, he shot 50% from three and he should be able to make shots from deep. Doughty was the sixth man and would often play alongside the two departed guards, and he is expected to step up and score this year. He's the leading returning scorer, and his pull up shooting ability as well as skill finishing through contact make him a guy that should be a problem for opposing defenses. In the front court, Anfernee McLemore, Austin Wiley, and Daniel Purifoy all return as well. Wiley and Purifoy were each suspended for the 2017-18 seaason, and struggled to get reacclimated. This year, they will be key pieces. Wiley is a good back to the basket scorer and he offers a different look than the other bigs thanks to his skill in the post. Purifoy and McLemore are more mobile and can operate on the perimeter with their ability to shoot the ball. McLemore especially is a good shot blocker, so he should hold down the interior defense for Auburn. Freshman Isaac Okoro is expected to start right away thanks to his great athletic skills and poised offensive game. He will also be good defensively from the jump. Fellow freshmen Tyrell Jones, Jaylin Williams, and Devan Cambridge, plus Memphis transfer Jamal Johnson will all be in the rotation early as they look to establish themselves as viable options.
Why They Won't: This team is going to be worse on both ends of the floor this year. Harper and Brown were so effective offensively because of their ability to hit pull up jump shots, even if they were contested. I don't think McCormick and Doughty bring that same level of shot making ability, and the offense could struggle without it. I'm also not totally sure how Wiley fits into the running system Auburn employs, as he is slow and plodding, and really has to be in the post to be effective. Defensively, the losses of Okeke, Horace Spencer, and Malik Dunbar will all be felt, as they were all good on that end thanks to their strength and length. It was hard to get past them and there aren't those guys anymore. Okoro should be good on that end immediately, and Doughty is a good defender as well, but there will be a lot more penetration this year.
X-Factor: With the losses of Harper and Brown, Auburn will need some improved backcourt play, and the Tigers turn to J'Von McCormick to provide that. The senior guard didn't play much in his first year having transferred from junior college, but he was good when he did. He was key rotation piece down the stretch, and he will look to continue that into this year, when he should be starting. He'll be playing point guard, and his passing ability will be key. However, he will need to step up as a scorer. He took just over three shots a game last year, and his ability to score will be huge as the Tigers try to replace their two star guards. He needs to be able to hit threes consistently and make plays out of pick and roll. How he adapts to his larger role could end up being the difference between Auburn making the tournament or not.
Final Verdict: Auburn lost three very talented players, and there's going to be a drop off from the loss of those guys. Bryce Brown and Jared Harper were electric scorers, and Bruce Pearl will have to figure out how to replicate that. Samir Doughty should have a very good year, and I'm a believer in Isaac Okoro being an immediate two way contributor. The question here is what will their identity be without two high level shot makers or multiple stout defenders? I think they'll get into the tournament, but it will be an up and down year for the Tigers.
8. Arkansas
Starting 5: Jalen Harris, Jimmy Whitt, Isaiah Joe, Mason Jones, Reggie Chaney
Why They'll Be Good: Eric Musselman arrives from Nevada, and he will install his system with the Razorbacks. They will be running up and down the court, and should be entertaining to watch. He has two playmaking guards in Jalen Harris and Jimmy Whitt. They combined for nearly 10 assists a game, and they should do well setting up their teammates. Neither is a great scorer, and neither one of them can shoot, but Whitt has good size and can operate in the post a little bit against smaller guards. Since they won't be scoring, expect Isaiah Joe and Mason Jones to light it up. Joe will have the greenest of lights this year, and he's going to jack up shots. He took more than three times of his shots from three than two last year, and I doubt that changes this year. He also made a cool 41.4% of his shots from three, so he's an absolute deadeye. I love Isaiah Joe, and I think he's going to be one of the best offensive weapons in the country given he will have the greenest of lights. Meanwhile, Mason Jones only shot 36.5% from three, so he's basically worthless. In all seriousness, those two are going to light it up from three. In the front court, Arkansas will be looking to UNC Wilmington transfer Jeantal Cylla, and Reggie Chaney for minutes. Cylla is more of a perimeter oriented player that fits well with what Musselman likes to do. Look for him to be a key piece of their rotation this year. Meanwhile, Chaney is more of a low post bruiser who offers rebounding and rim protection, at least relative to the rest of the roster, and Henderson
Why They Won't: The lack of size is quite clearly a worry. The Hogs will be relying on a 6'7" and a 6'8" player to hold down the center spot in a league full of talented big men. They could get eaten up on the boards and struggle with their interior defense. They also have no other shooters outside of Joe and Jones and the two other guards, Harris and Whitt, are absolutely atrocious from deep. Like under 15% from three bad. They will need the Joe and Jones to make up for that, but it will be hard as defenses can key in on the two wing gunners. Defense could also be tough, as Musselman relied on a lot of length to make his defenses in Nevada successful. He will have a significantly smaller roster with the Razorbacks, and it will be interesting to see how they perform defensively. There is also a lack of depth, as they will likely only go seven or eight deep.
X-Factor: As I mentioned, this team lacks size up front, and they will need Reggie Chaney to prove that he is capable of hanging with some of the bigs in the SEC. At just 6'8", he is smaller than you'd like out of a center, and while he is strong, he isn't exactly a rim protector. His ability to get rebounds and guard centers this year will be paramount to Arkansas being a tournament team. If he can battle in the post and not be a negative defensively in the front court, then the Razorbacks could go dancing. If not, they will get exposed on the interior and struggle to win games this season.
Final Verdict: They have potential to be very good next year, but I don't think they fully get there. Isaiah Joe and Mason Jones are going to put up absurd stats, and I like the other two guards as distributors, but I don't think the fit is totally there. They won't be great defensively and they'll struggle on the interior. Those worries will keep them out of the tournament, but they should have an offense that is good enough to win them more than a few games.
9. Missouri
Starting 5: Dru Smith, Mark Smith, Torrence Watson, Tray Jackson, Jeremiah Tillman
Why They'll Be Good: The Tigers have high hopes for their backcourt this year. There's a pair of Smiths in the backcourt with leading returning scorer Mark and Evansville transfer Dru. Mark is a good shooter and should be in contention to lead the team in scoring once more. He'll be aided by Dru, who has a good reputation as a passer and should set the offense up well for success. All of the reports out of Columbia surrounding him are glowing, so I think he'll step in and lead the offense right away. You can then take you pick of the third starting guard from sophomores Torrence Watson, Javon Pickett, and Xavier Pinson. I've got with Watson since he had the most recruiting pedigree, but all three are capable and will find minutes. Each is a good athlete and fairly capable shooter, Pickett lags behind there, but thrives when attacking the rim, and they should be a nice group on the wing. Jeremiah Tillman is the talented big man that Missouri fans have been waiting to truly dominate. He needs to stay out of foul trouble, but he's a very good scorer in the post, and he'll finally have perimeter options to spread the floor and receive his passes out of the post, and actually convert them into makes. Freshman Tray Jackson will step into the starting role next to Tillman, and he'll be a welcome addition. He can stretch the floor with a nice shooting stroke, but is a great athlete that should contribute immediately defensively. The Tigers should actually be quite good on that side of the ball, with Dru Smith being a very good on ball defender and the other wings all providing solid defense.
Why They Won't: They absolutely need to find a way to keep Tillman on the floor. The junior big has struggled with foul trouble throughout his career, and they often look like a different team without him on the floor. The Tigers have run their offense through the post the past two years, and he is very good at taking what the defense gives him and converting it into a good look, for himself or a teammate. If, and most likely when, he gets into foul trouble, Reed Nikko should fill the minutes up front, and he's relatively uninspiring, and doesn't offer the same offensive ability that Tillman does. They also don't really have any other front court depth outside of Nikko. Perhaps freshman Kobe Brown can fill some minutes as a small ball four, or the Tigers could turn to four guard looks, but that would leave them undersized with Tray Jackson at the five. Tillman needs to eliminate the fouls from his game, or the whole team will suffer.
X-Factor: I think Torrence Watson will start on the wing for the Tigers, so I'm making him my x-factor. In truth, it could be Pinson or Pickett, but since I think Watson will be playing the most minutes, I'll pick him. Watson was a four star recruit out of high school, and he will look to step up as a sophomore. He averaged 7.7 points a game and made 36% of his threes. He will need to up his scoring average while maintaining that efficiency from deep this year to space the floor effectively for Jeremiah Tillman and let the pick and rolls with Mark and Dru Smith be effective. If he can be a consistent scorer on the wing, Missouri could be a tournament team. If not, then they need one of the other two sophomore wings to step up and overtake him as the guy on the wing.
Final Verdict: I wanted to put Missouri in the tournament, since I really like their roster this year, but I think it's just a year too early for them. They will need a few leaps from their sophomores and immediate production out of Jackson, and I don't know how consistent they will be. I like the two Smiths, and I think the defense will be very good this year, but Tillman continues to foul and ends up off the floor just a little too much to get a spot in the tournament this year.
10. Tennessee
Starting 5: Lamonte Turner, Jordan Bowden, Josiah-Jordan James, Yves Pons, John Fulkerson
Why They'll Be Good: Tennessee may have the best backcourt in the conference, which is really saying something. Despite losing Jordan Bone, Rick Barnes has three very talented guards at his disposal, all of whom will likely start. Seniors Jordan Bowden and Lamonte Turner will be handed the keys to the offense this year, and they should thrive. Both of them averaged double figures last year, and should each increase their scoring load this year. They'll split ball handling duties and Turner will likely end up being more of the passer from the two, while Bowden takes on more scoring. He's a better shooter from deep than his back court mate, and will likely lead the team in scoring this year. Josiah-Jordan James is a five star freshman who is likely to start right away. He's got great size for a guard and he is essentially a 6'6" point guard. He's a super smooth athlete and he'll fit into the ball sharing system that Tennessee uses. Up front, Yves Pons and John Fulkerson will be stepping into bigger roles after a few years learning from a great group of forwards before them. Pons is a great defender who has an NBA body, but needs to develop the rest of his game. Fulkerson should be a solid big who does work on the boards. They have three other freshmen in Oliver Nkamhoua, Drew Pembler, and Davontae Gaines, plus rotation player Jalen Johnson off the bench.
Why They Won't: The losses of program stalwarts Bone, Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Kyle Alexander is a tough one. Williams and Schofield especially were superstars at Tennessee, and they will be sorely missed. They were excellent two way contributors, and they leave a gaping hole in the front court. Pons and Fulkerson aren't all that good, and they likely won't contribute much offensively. They will need their three guards to really pick up the scoring load, but only Bowden is an above average shooter from deep. The floor spacing could be tough for the Vols this year. They also don't have a ton of depth, as the bench players haven't proven they are ready to contribute in the SEC.
X-Factor: The Volunteers are going to miss Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams up front, so Yves Pons will need to step up. His defense and physicality aren't an issue, but he has his offensive struggles. He averaged 2.2 points a game as a sophomore, and rarely shoots the ball unless is an open layup. In order to replace those two stars, Rick Barnes will need to the French forward to show something offensively. Perhaps he can be effective as an option attacking the rim, or develop some sort of post game. However, if they don't get that, then the front court will be an offensive wasteland and Tennessee will really struggle to score points.
Final Verdict: I just don't see it with Tennessee this year. They lack the talent on the interior to compete in the tough SEC, and I worry about Turner and Bowden scaling their games up. The backcourt is going to be good even if they have some growing pains into their bigger roles, and I'm very excited to see James play. However, I don't think they have the depth either, so they will miss out on dancing this year.
11. Mississippi State
Starting 5: Tyson Carter, Nick Weatherspoon, Robert Woodard, Reggie Perry, Adbul Ado
Why They'll Be Good: The Bulldogs will have quite the imposing front court. Robert Woodard and Reggie Perry are in line to take major steps forward as sophomores. Perry especially should be dominant this year. He was good to end the year in 2018-19, and then stepped up and won the MVP at the FIBA U-19 tournament this summer. He's an absolute load in the low post, and he will likely average a double double or close to it this year. Joining those two is Adbul Ado, a solid big who will provide shot blocking defensively for the Bulldogs. Siena transfer Prince Oduru will also likely find minutes, as the big man was able to grab boards at a high rate in the MAAC. The perimeter is a bigger question mark, although there is talent. Tyson Carter returns to run point after averaging a career highs in points and assists. While he wasn't asked to do a ton last year, he should be a capable floor spacer and scorer. Nick Weatherspoon will also look to step into a bigger role after he returns from his 10 game suspension. Until then, look for freshmen Iverson Molinar and Devin Butts to get minutes. Molinar is a good athlete and should be playing next to Carter to start the year. Also look for Elias King, the lone four star for the Bulldogs, to get minutes, although he's more of a wing. Still, he's very athletic and should find a role this year.
Why They Won't: The losses of Lamar Peters, Are Holman, and especially Quinndary Weatherspoon are going to be brutal. Peters was the point guard and did a good job of balancing running the team with scoring, while Holman offered more scoring as a center than Ado will, and he could step out to the perimeter. However, the elder Weatherspoon's ability to get buckets, especially in isolation situation, will be something they really miss this year. They don't have a guy who will create his own shot this year, and the offense is going to struggle because of it. The floor well also be quite cramped, as Carter is the only real shooter on the roster. Perhaps Nick Weatherspoon will offer something when he gets back from his suspension, but given that they play two bigs, Perry could have trouble finding space to get his shots off as defenses collapse on him.
X-Factor: Robert Woodard was a top 75 recruit out of high school last year, and he made an instant impact defensively thanks to his big frame. However, with so many offensive contributors gone, he needs to become a good player on the other end as well. He shot under 30% from deep, which won't cut in next to Reggie Perry. He is fine at getting to the rim, and he is strong enough to get buckets when he attacking the rim, but the shooting will be a swing skill. He's likely going to be starting at the three, and he will need to make shots from deep for the Bulldogs to be a tournament team this year. If he can't, there won't be any floor spacing on offense and Mississippi State will struggle to score at the rim given the convergence of defenders on the paint due to the lack of shooting threats.
Final Verdict: Reggie Perry is going to be an absolute animal, but beyond that, I'm not totally sure where the offense is going to come from. They lose a lot of perimeter scoring, and Quinndary Weatherspoon was better than a lot of people realized last year, so his absence will be a big problem. The defense should be pretty good, especially on the interior, but they won't score enough points to make the tournament this year.
The NIT Hopefuls
12. South Carolina
Starting 5: AJ Lawson, Jair Bolden, Keyshawn Bryant, Justin Minaya, Malik Kostar
Why They'll Be Good: The Gamecocks are still sort of coasting off of their Final Four trip in 2017, as they have been average at best since then. This team has an intriguing mix of young talent, led by burgeoning star AJ Lawson. He looked awesome for Canada at the FIBA U-19 World Cup this summer, and he will look to be an improved player as a sophomore. He's already their leading returning scorer, and his smoothness with the ball and pretty looking shooting stroke should have him producing at an All-Conference level this year. His fellow sophomore Keyshawn Bryant will join him as a scorer in the backcourt, and redshirt freshman TJ Moss, freshman Trae Hannibal, and George Washington transfer Jair Bolden will provide depth and some additional shooting. On the wing, Justin Minaya will slide in as a good defender while Alonzo Frink offers rebounding. Up front, Malik Koster will serve as the offensive glass crasher who gets a bunch of easy putbacks. Tennessee State transfer Micaiah Henry will also contribute as a rebounder and shot blocker. Freshman Jalyn McCreary will also get minutes at the four this year, and he's a good athlete who can contribute defensively. Frank Martin will have his team competing defensively, and they have enough length to be a good unit on that side of the ball.
Why They Won't: I worry about the talent level of this team. I think Lawson is really good, but I'm not entirely sure who the second best player on the roster is. Maybe it's Keyshawn Bryant, but he still has a lot to prove before he's counted on to be a consistent SEC performer. They also don't have a ton of shooting on the roster, as Lawson and Moss are the only guys who shot over 33% last year. They will have to figure out how to properly space the floor and not throw up a bunch of bricks offensively to elevate themselves a level.
X-Factor: AJ Lawson is a guy that I think deserves more attention nationally. He was great for the Gamecocks last year, scoring 13.4 points and shooting 35.8% from deep. He also played point guard for South Carolina, and averaged nearly 3 assists and also chipping in with 4.3 rebounds as well. He's a good defender, and should be one of the better players in the SEC this year. I expect him to be a breakout star in the SEC, and if he can establish himself as a legitimate stud, then perhaps South Carolina can make a tournament challenge.
Final Verdict: Look, I love AJ Lawson, and I think he's going to be a star in the SEC. But the rest of the roster won't do much offensively, and I just can't trust them to space the floor effectively enough to let the other guards attack the rim, which they do well. I'm a fan of Bryant and Malik Kostnar as well, but I just don't think they have enough scoring to be anything more than a scrappy team no one wants to play in the SEC. I would imagine it's a tough year for the Gamecocks.
13. Texas A&M
Starting 5: TJ Starks, Cashius McNeilly, Wendell Mitchell, Savion Flagg, Josh Nebo
Why They'll Be Good: Buzz Williams comes in from a successful tenure at Virginia Tech, and he should make this team better immediately. TJ Starks is an enigma for him to figure out at the point, but he can score the ball, and there aren't a ton of other options at point guard. Wendell Mitchell and Savion Flagg on the wing will be the stars of this team, with their good length and scoring ability. They are both solid shooters that should get more open looks under Williams, and each could see an improvement in their numbers. Jay Jay Chandler isn't much of a shooter, but he's good at attacking the rim and will see minutes on the wing. Up front, Josh Nebo is a really good roll man who should convert a bunch of close range chances into dunks. He will also be a very good shot blocker at the back of Buzz's defense. The Aggies also bring in a 7 man recruiting class, and look for Cashius McNeilly, the highest ranked recruit, to seize a starting spot almost immediately. Big men Emmanuel Miller and Jonathon Aku will also get time, and look for JuCo guard Quenton Jackson to break in. Finally, Andre Gordon is a super athlete and he could get on the court thanks to that if he applies himself defensively.
Why They Won't: I don't think there's a ton of good players here. Mitchell and Flagg are good, and that's about it. In time, the freshmen could be good, but it's too early to say for sure. Starks is the definition of an inefficient player, and he has tons of turnover issues. Unfortunately, there really isn't a better point guard option, and Williams will likely have to stick with him this year through some rough stretch. Nebo is fine, but very limited, and like I said, I don't think any of the newcomers will be standouts right away.
X-Factor: If Buzz Williams wants to have a good year, then he will need TJ Starks to be effective as his point guard. He isn't a model of good decision making, taking many low efficiency looks and committing turnovers with needlessly bad passes. He's not a great shooter either, and Buzz Williams won't stand for a lot of the poor decision making out of his point guard. However, there isn't really anyone else to run the point, so Williams will likely be stuck with Starks for major minutes. If he can turn a corner with his decision making and shooting, then perhaps the Aggies will work their way into the bubble in Buzz's first year. If not, then look for it to be a long year in College Station.
Final Verdict: Mitchell and Flagg are nice enough pieces, and Buzz Williams is a good coach, but this is the first year of what will be a multi year effort for the new head coach. Things are going to take a few years to get better, and I think this year will be tough. They don't have a ton of shooting and Starks isn't a good point guard, so the Aggies will struggle in year one of Williams' tenure.
The Basement
14. Vanderbilt
Starting 5: Saben Lee, Maxwell Evans, Aaron Nesmith, Dylan Disu, Clevon Brown
Why They'll Be Good: The Commodores can't really be much worse than last year, when they didn't win a game in conference play and ended up with Bryce Drew getting fired. Replacing him on the sidelines is Jerry Stackhouse, who has coaching experience in the NBA G League. He has some returning talent to make this transition a bit easier. Guard Saben Lee was the leading scorer last season, and he's going look to lead the team once more. Lee was the best three point shooter on the team as well, and he's going to have the ball in his hands quite a lot this year. Aaron Nesmith will also look to make an impact as a sophomore. He's gotten some NBA buzz thanks to size good size and length, plus good shooting ability. He scored 20 or more points give times last year, and he just needs to improve his consistency as a shooter and scoring this season. Matthew Moyer and Maxwell Evans should provide some nice defense on the wing, and freshman Dylan Disu looks like he'll be a good defender immediately in the college game. Clevon Brown is a good shot blocker, plus Nesmith and Lee have good length, so the defense could actually end up being a strength this year, especially if Scotty Pippen Jr is anything like his dad on that end.
Why They Won't: Outside of Lee and Nesmith, there isn't a lot of offensive firepower on the Commodores' roster. None of the other players can really shoot it from deep, and they will need those two to carry a large load scoring the ball. It's also unclear how Stackhouse is going to coach Vanderbilt. I'm not going to lie and tell you I've watched him coaching in the G League, so I'm not totally sure what they will look like on either side of the ball. The talent level also just isn't quite there yet, with Lee and Nesmith seemingly being the only SEC caliber players on the roster as of right now.
X-Factor: Aaron Nesmith is one of the better players in the country that most people haven't heard of. Having played on a bad Vanderbilt team, he quietly earned looks from NBA scouts thanks to his combination of size, shooting, and athleticism for a wing. He's good on the defensive end, and with another offseason development, with this one coming under Stackhouse, he should be even better as a sophomore. I'd look for him to expand his creation abilities and be more consistent as a shooter, and if he can do that, then Vanderbilt should be able to pick up a few wins and Nesmith could go into the first round of the NBA Draft.
Final Verdict: I'm optimistic Stackhouse can do a good job as the head coach. He's had success before, has the NBA pedigree to recruit, and the cupboard isn't entirely bare. I think Nesmith emerges as a star this year, and Lee continues to be solid, but outside of those two, it could be a tough year in Nashville.
First Team All SEC
G: Anthony Edwards, Georgia
G: Kira Lewis, Alabama
G: Isaiah Joe, Arkansas
F: Reggie Perry, Mississippi State
F: Kerry Blackshear, Florida
Second Team All SEC
G: Tyrese Maxey, Kentucky
G: Andrew Nembhard, Florida
G: Jordan Bowden, Tennessee
G: Breein Tyree, Mississippi
F: Scottie Lewis, Florida
Third Team All SEC
G: AJ Lawson, South Carolina
G: Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt
G: Javonte Smart, LSU
F: EJ Montgomery, Kentucky
F: Isaac Okoro, Auburn
SEC All Freshman Team
G: Anthony Edwards, Georgia
G: Tyrese Maxey, Kentucky
F: Isaac Okoro, Auburn
F: Scottie Lewis, Florida
F: Trendon Watford, LSU
SEC Player of the Year: Anthony Edwards, SG, Georgia
SEC Freshman of the Year: Anthony Edwards, SG, Georgia
Comments
Post a Comment