The Pac-12 has gone through multiple down years, and the conference really reached a nadir last year. Seemingly all of the teams in the leagues stunk, and only three of them made the tournament, and Oregon and Arizona State really backed their way in. However, I believe the conference will be better this season. Maybe not to the prodigious height it once reached during the heyday of UCLA and other great teams, but there is more quality in the league this year. The bottom half of the league won't be great, but they should be able to improve their tournament representation this year. Let me know your thoughts on the league on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and tell me who you think makes the tournament from this league.
The Contenders
1. Oregon
Starting 5: Payton Pritchard, Anthony Mathis, CJ Walker, Shakur Juiston, Francis Okoro
Why They'll Be Good: The Ducks roster is very unique. While they do have some returning talent, a lot of this team will be newcomers. They welcome in two grad transfer and seven freshman to hopefully bring them back to the NCAA Tournament. Anthony Mathis and Shakir Juston both come in from the Mountain West, New Mexico and UNLV respectively, and should immediately be factors for Oregon. Mathis is an absolute sniper from behind the arc and should have no problem bringing that to the Pac-12. Meanwhile, Juston is a guy who is comfortable operating the high post on offense and is a tenacious rebounder. They also have the fourth best recruiting class in the country, although the sheer volume no doubt plays a part in that, but they do have 2 five star talents, 5 players in the top 100, and one of the best JuCo recruits in the country. Lok Wur is the odd man out, but he was a late stock riser who is more of a long term project in the front court. Five star big N'Faly Dante will join the team at the semester break, and when he does, he should instantly become one of the top shot blockers in the country. He is incredibly long, and while his offensive game isn't super developed, his defense alone will make him a very valuable asset. Fellow big Chandler Lawson, younger brother of Kansas standout Dedric, should crack the rotation as well, and five star combo forward CJ Walker could definitely see minutes at the four as well. He's a top tier athlete, and his ability to get out in transition and provide electric highlights will be very fun. Also on the wing, Addison Patterson declassed up and will provide a blend of athleticism, shooting, and playmaking. Finally, the Ducks welcome JuCo guard Chris Duarte. He could push for a starting role thanks to his ability to dribble, pass, and shoot, so look for him to make an impact immediately. Finally, they bring back three guys in senior guard Payton Pritchard and sophomores Will Richardson and Francis Okoro. Pritchard is going to be a steady hand at the point and good shooter from deep, and could lead the team in points this year. Richardson was solid as a freshman, and is a good athlete who also offers some shooting, and Okoro will likely be starting at center to start the year. Look for Dana Altman to turn to a zone that was effective last year, and given the amount of athleticism on the roster, it should lead to a good defense for the Ducks.
Why They Won't: There are a whole lot of new pieces to integrate, and managing the rotation will be tough. There's a lot of egos there, and finding which lineup combination work takes time, and adding a player in the middle of the year isn't ideal. Oregon did struggle early last year when they had a similar mix of new players, so the early season could be tough in Eugene. Making sure the roster gels both on and off the court will be key for Dana Altman and will likely be the biggest challenge he faces this year.
X-Factor: The Ducks have a lot of talented piece and good depth, but I think how Shakur Juiston translates from the Mountain West will be a big question for this team. He only played eight games last year due to injuries, but when he was healthy, he had face up ability and liked to operate in the high post. He is a tenacious rebounder, averaging a double double while healthy in 2017-18, and he is expected to start for Oregon this year. However, it remains to be seen how effective he'll be against improved competition. While the Mountain West is by no means a bad league, Juiston is used to a different type of power forward. The ones in the Pac-12 are bigger, faster, stronger, and all around more athletic than what he was facing with UNLV. He could struggle on the boards as he isn't the longest or most athletic guy, and his scoring could take a hit too. If he's the third big for this team, that's fine, and CJ Walker should see time at the four, but if he can be more, it opens up a lot more pieces for the Ducks. I expect him to contribute this year, but in what role remains to be seen.
Final Verdict: I really like this Oregon team. They should be deep and talented, with a good mix of shooting and interior scoring, plus a good defense. Payton Pritchard should run the offense well, and I think Anthony Mathis, his close friend, should be a really nice weapon for them as well as a floor spacer. I think Dana Altman could take a little bit to find out how he has to manage his rotation, but he's got plenty of talent of disposal, and it should be enough to win the Pac-12.
2. Arizona
Starting 5: Nico Mannion, Max Hazzard, Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji, Chase Jeter
Why They'll Be Good: The Wildcats have the sixth ranked recruiting class in the nation, and the influx of new talent should make them very good. Five stars Nico Mannion and Jalen Green are expected to not only be starters right away, but high impact players from the minute they step on the court. Mannion has star written all over him, as he does everything you'd want from an elite point guard. He is a good ball handler, and he is good defensively thanks to quick hands and good size for the position. However, he really shines as a gifted passer and scorer. He has a knack for hitting teammates when they are wide open and right in their hands, and gets everyone involved. Plus, his ability to score at all three levels is going to make him one of the best players in the country. Green, meanwhile, relies more on his physical gifts for production at this point. But what gifts those are. He's a jump out of the gym type athlete who gets up and down the floor quickly. He should be able to harness that into be a good defender, but the skill level on offense will be a question mark. Zeke Naji is a four star forward with good size and athleticism who competes on the board and is a good finisher around the rim, and should be pushing for minutes immediately. Christian Koloko, the final member of the class, is a top 100 center who should block shots, rebound, and dunk, but he's still fairly raw. Three transfers also join the fray, with guards Max Hazzard and Jemarl Baker and forward Stone Gettings heading to Tuscon for the upcoming season. Hazzard and Baker should both be good shooters next to Mannion, with Hazzard knocking down 38.8% of his threes last season with UC Irvine, and while Baker struggled in his first season at Kentucky, he should improve on his 31% mark from downtown with Arizona. Gettings will be part of the front court rotation, and he could offer a different look than anyone else they have up front. At Cornell, he was a star, and while you shouldn't expect him to put up the same numbers he did in the Ivy League, his ability on the glass with be useful, and he has the ability to step out and play on the perimeter as well. Arizona also brings back quite a few guys. Chase Jeter, a former transfer himself, will likely be the starting center after an effective year last season, and his post scoring should be nice. Ira Lee will also be looking for minutes up front, but he could fall out of the rotation. Dylan Smith returns, and he should be a good enough depth piece.
Why They Won't: As with Oregon, they have to integrate a lot of new pieces and hope the freshmen are ready to contribute. While I'm not worried about Mannion, there are questions about everyone else. Green needs to be more than just an athlete, and his overall skill level is still a question. Nnaji and Koloko need to prove they can handle Division I completion, while Hazard and Gettings need to show they are ready to play against the improved competition in the Pac-12. Baker needs to find his shooting stroke after struggling at Kentucky, and if he could show more than just being a spot up shooter, it would be very helpful. Defense could also be an issue, as there aren't really any proven defenders on the team. Mannion, Green, and Nnaji should be good, but they are still a question given their inexperience, and none of the returners are more than average. They will have to show they can get stops if they want to reach their full potential.
X-Factor: Despite his five star rating, Josh Green has a lot to prove this year. No one doubts his athletic ability, and in transition, there are no doubts in my mind that he should be electric. He will likely be a starter from the jump, and given that Nico Mannion will be playing point guard with him, they should have no problem getting out into transition and letting him make plays. However, in the half court, he needs to elevate him games. He's not a great shooter or ball handler, and his ability to get to the rim will be key given his lack of those skills. Green needs to show that he is more than just an athlete and that he has high skill level to make this team very effective when they aren't out in transition. Mannion should be fine in those settings, and Chase Jeter is an effective post up option, but having Green as a scoring option would make the Wildcats even more potent. If he is able to be more than just a transition player, then Arizona could be a team that wins the Pac-12.
Final Verdict: Despite the FBI stuff and questions around Sean Miller, he has a nice recruiting class coming up that should be very good. I think Nico Mannion will be a borderline All-American this year, and when they are running, they should be good thanks to Josh Green. Max Hazzard and Jemarl Baker add in some shooting ability from deep, which should help the half court offense, and the defense should be good as well. Look for them to be a contender for the Pac-12.
The Tournament Teams
3. Washington
Starting 5: Quade Green, Raequan Battle, Naz Carter, Jaden McDaniels, Isaiah Stewart
Why They'll Be Good: Washington has the eleventh best recruiting class, which is somehow only the fourth best in the conference despite having two top ten recruits. Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels will form one of the nations most terrifying front courts. Stewart will be a double double threat every night with his ability to score in the interior. He's an absolute load with a ton of strength and long arms, making him tough to guard, especially with his good touch and wide array of post moves. While he'll be a model of consistency, McDaniels will offer more variance, but a higher ceiling. When he's fully clicking, he looks somewhat reminiscent of a young Kevin Durant thanks to his bounds of athleticism at his size, ability to finish at the rim, and smooth looking jumper. However, expect inconsistency from him this year, as he has struggled to put it all together on. regular basis, and he could see nights in single digits. They will both be natural fits in Mike Hopkin's zone, as McDaniels especially should create havoc with his crazy length. Raequan Battle also enters as a freshman, and he'll contribute immediately as a scorer and shooter. Kentucky transfer Quade Green will also offer floor spacing. He's a potential difference maker with his quick hands in the zone and ball handling ability on the perimeter. On the wing, Naz Carter, Hamier Wright, and Jamal Bey all return. Carter and Bey are both potential breakout candidates, as they looked good down the stretch and had recruiting pedigree. Carter is an explosive athlete who can be good in transition and showed signs of developing a jumper, while Bey has a reputation as a knockdown shooter and made 40% of his albeit limited threes.
Why They Won't: As is becoming a theme, they have new pieces they have to integrate and fitting them into the 2-3 zone, which isn't as easy as it may seem, will be a challenge for Mike Hopkins. Additionally, point guard play is a worry. Quade Green is pretty good, although he got played out of the rotation at Kentucky, and he is more of a scorer than a facilitator. When you rely on dominant bigs for your offense, you need a guy who can get them the ball consistently and in good positions. There is no guarantee that happens this year. Green will need to develop is passing and make sure he can deliver the ball to his teammates in good position for Washington to succeed. Finally, floor spacing could be a worry. Green and Battle can shoot, and Carter and Bey can in theory, but they will need to have consistent shooting threat to open up space for Stewart to operate on the interior and McDaniels to attack.
X-Factor: Quade Green was a five star recruit and top 5 point guard in the class of 2017, and he committed to Kentucky, where he was expected to make an impact. He lost his starting role to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a freshman, and was coming off the bench in the nine games he played before transferring as a sophomore. Green is a very good shooter from deep, making 38.5% of his career attempts, and he has quick hands that should be a natural fit in the 2-3 zone Mike Hopkins runs. He should be able to be the high scoring perimeter player than the Huskies were missing prior to him getting eligible, and that will be a nice addition. However, his passing ability in question. He's always been more of a score first player, and given the strong front court Washington has, he will need to work on becoming a better distributor. Getting the ball to Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels in positions where they can succeed will be key, and his passing could be the difference between a conference title challenge and a more up and down year.
Final Verdict: The Huskies are a team I really like. They have a really good freshman front court that should dominate the defensively thanks to their length and rebounding, and Stewart will likely be a double double machine. Getting Quade Green eligible was huge for their floor spacing, and I think Raequan Battle will be an underrated addition, and Naz Carter steps up and has a breakout year. The offense might go up and down a bit based on how McDaniels performs nightly, but I expect them to be right around the Top 25 all year and be a tournament team, possibly even challenging for a conference title.
4. Colorado
Starting 5: McKinley Wright, Shane Gattling, D'Shawn Schwartz, Tyler Bey, Lucas Siewert
Why They'll Be Good: Unlike the teams above them, Colorado's strength doesn't involve the five star talent they have coming in. Instead, they return essentially their entire rotation from a team that won 23 games and went on a run in the NIT. They are led by two stars in McKinley Wright and Tyler Bey. Wright played through a shoulder injury for most of last season, which is why he didn't ascend to the status some believed he could have last year. Still, he's good at getting to the rim and is a capable shooter. Bey, meanwhile, is a forward with seemingly unlimited bounce. He's excellent on the interior, an area which the Buffaloes have more than enough contributors. In addition to Bey, expect Lucas Siewert, Dallas Walton, and Evan Battey to be contributors inside. Siewert is capable of playing both inside and out offensively, Walton is the defensive stopper of the group, standing at 7 feet tall, and Battey is a bruiser who dominates on the glass. Those four will give Colorado a stout interior defense and give them an advantage on the glass in most games. Additionally, look for Shane Gattling and D'Shawn Schwartz on the wing. Both are solid shooters, and JuCo transfer Maddox Daniels will help in that area as well. This is a group with plenty of experience that should be able to compete every night in the Pac-12.
Why They Won't: I do have a few concerns. While Colorado was undoubtably good last season, I'm not ready to proclaim that their success will be indicative of success this year as well. As I mentioned with Seton Hall, running it back with a team usually translates to having similar success. For the Buffaloes, that would mean a trip to the NIT. Now, I think there will be some internal improvement, but that doesn't mean that fans should expect this team to be significantly better. Let's not forget, they lost against San Diego, Indiana State, and Hawaii last year. I'm not going to sit here and pretend I watched those games, but that's not a good sign, especially considering they have essentially the same roster this year. They also need to improve from behind the arc. Gattling was supposed to be able to knock down shots, but he shot 32%, as did Schwartz. Both will need to get better from deep, and Wright needs to become a better shooter off pull ups for the Buffaloes to improve this season.
X-Factor: Colorado needs shooting from deep, and D'Shawn Schwartz could be the guy to provide it. He was inconsistent at best from deep last year, and his game as a whole was up and down. He's a good athlete who can score at the rim, and I think his shooting can improve. He made 38.3% of his shots from deep as a freshman on a lower amount of attempts, and if he can return to that level of efficiency, look out for the Buffaloes this year. However, if not, floor spacing will be a real concern. They don't have any great shooters, and they have a few guys who could step up, but Schwartz has the potential to be a really good scorer and if his shooting comes along, he could end up breaking into the level of Wright and Bey.
Final Verdict: I've seen Colorado in some preseason Top 25's, and comparisons to Seton Hall, who I love this year. I think the difference between those teams in threefold. First, Myles Powell is an All-American level player that Colorado just doesn't have, and he will win a few games on his own. Second, they add in Ike Obiagu, who I think makes a big impact and is an improvement over who they had last year. Lastly, they put up a lot of wins against a league that was mocked for how bad it was. I don't know how much winning 10 Pac-12 games against a bad conference translate. All that being said, I think they will be good, as McKinley Wright and Tyler Bey are very good, and they have multiple guys who can take leaps, like Schwartz and Gattling. Shooting is a slight concern, and I'm selling them as a Top 25 unit, but this should be a tournament team.
5. Arizona State
Starting 5: Remy Martin, Rob Edwards, Kimani Lawrence, Taeshon Cherry, Romello White
Why They'll Be Good: Bobby Hurley has developed a reputation for pulling off big wins over the last season, knocking off Kansas twice and Xavier during a season when they were a 1 seed in the Big Dance. They play at a breakneck pace and Hurley empowers his guards to make plays and take shots. When they aren't falling it, things can go poorly (they followed up their win over Kansas last season by losing to Princeton at home), but Remy Martin and Rob Edwards should be able to avoid too many games like that. Both returning guards are very good shot makers, with Martin handling the ball and being a good distributor, while Edwards is mainly focused on scoring. Both are pull up threats and able to make shots from behind the arc, but oddly neither was good at the rim, and will need to improve there. Arizona also welcomes two newcomers into the backcourt in son of Eddie House, Jaelen, who will be a good backup point guard and provide some additional scoring, and Alonzo Verge, a junior college transfer who scored 30 a game last year. He is also a good passer and should be a guy who contributes immediately. Fellow junior college player Khalid Thomas will bolster the front line, and he can contribute both on the glass and as a floor spacer. He fits in with Kimani Lawrence and Taeshon Cherry as forwards who can play out on the perimeter. Lawrence is an all-around contributor and good defender, while Cherry is a potential breakout. A top 50 recruit last year, the sophomore will be stepping into a bigger role offensively and his blend of athleticism and shooting could make him a star in Tempe. At center, Romello White will look to build on his strong second half of the year and Jalen Graham, a bouncy freshman, will push for immediate minutes as well.
Why They Won't: As fun as the up tempo offense style is, defense could be an issue. The Sun Devils lose their two best defenders from last year in Luguentz Dort and Zylan Cheatham. Dort harassed opposing lead guards and put constant pressure on ball handlers, while Cheatham was essentially a one man wrecking crew on the glass who also contested a ton of shots at the rim. They will have to replace his activity on the inside with gang rebounding, and the perimeter defense will be worse without Dort. Martin brings good energy defensively, but he isn't as strong or tenacious as Dort, and there are questions about most of the other guys on the roster on this end. The inconsistency the program has displayed will also need to be corrected. While their ability to pull off big wins is great, they often undermine themselves and their tournament chances by losing very winnable games. They will need to straighten that out for them to return to March this year.
X-Factor: Arizona State has a few guys I could've put here, but Taeshon Cherry is my pick. He's a guy I really like, with a lot of athleticism and a good shooting stroke. He has the recruiting pedigree as a top 40 recruit last year, and there were stretches last year where he looked like a future star. However, he was inconsistent as a freshman and will need to step up as a sophomore and fill a bigger role. I'm buying a breakout from him, and that would be big for the Sun Devils. They would get a scorer on the wing, and it would improve their offensive versatility. If not, then a heavier burden falls upon their guards and the front court looks much worse. Keep an eye on Cherry this year as he could be the difference between Arizona State dancing or not.
Final Verdict: I'm sneaky high on Arizona State this year. They have a really nice backcourt with four guys who can score, and I expect to see a healthy dose of three guard looks from Bobby Hurley this year, and Taeshon Cherry just screams breakout to me. Romello White and Kimani Lawrence are solid pieces, and Jalen Graham could emerge as a high level shot blocker thanks to his bunnies. The defense will take a hit, but I think the offense improves and some of the inconsistency gets ironed out from their play, leaving them as a tournament team this year.
The Bubble Teams
6. USC
Starting 5: Elijah Weaver, Jonah Matthews, Daniel Utomi, Onyeka Okongwu, Nik Rakocevic
Why They'll Be Good: Andy Enfield has consistently brought in talented players to Southern California, but the success has yet to come on the court. And yet, here I am predicting once more that this will be the season that is different. There were very obvious chemistry issue last season and players often look disinterested. I'm betting on a bounce back from the Trojans this year. They will have a strong front line this year. Nik Rakocevic returns to lead the line, and he should do a very good job after nearly averaging a double double last year. He'll be joined by two five stars in Onyeka Okongwu and Isaiah Mobley. Both are exceptional athletes and will make up for Rakocevic's last of bounce and shot blocking. Given that USC plays a 2-3 zone defensively, all three could share the floor and provide a team that completely locks down the glass. Okungwu, the lower ranked of the two, has drawn rave reviews thus far, and I expect him to earn the star next to Rakocevic this year. Mobley has a nice inside out game that should get him minutes. On the wing, there are two newcomers joining Charles O' Bannon Jr., a former four star prospect and son of UCLA great Charles O' Bannon. Daniel Utomi comes over from Akron and will provide floor spacing, and Max Agbonkpolo is a four star freshman who offers a bigger body and has talent as a scorer and shooter. In the backcourt, Elijah Weaver and Jonah Matthews return and should form a nice duo. Weaver is a 6'5" point guard and should cover defensively for the smaller Matthews, while Matthews will pick up the scoring load, especially from deep. Quinton Adlesh joins from Columbia, and he should be a solid third guard thanks to his ball handling, defending, and shooting. They also add Kyle Studivant, another solid player who can earn minutes will his passing and skill in transition. Plus, Drake London, also a receiver on the football team, is capable of doing this, so he'll probably be good in the open court as well.
Why They Won't: Last year, talent was not the issue in Los Angeles. They had a first round pick in Kevin Porter and a very good wing in Bennie Boatwright, plus all of the guys returning, but they had off the court issues and some on the court ones. The zone was largely ineffective, with very little activity from the players, and their effort level on the whole was poor. Andy Enfield also seems to have forgotten how to coach since he left Florida Gulf Coast and seems content to just roll the ball out and hope he can out-talent his opponents. They need some sort of organization offensively to succeed this year. They will also need shooting. The addition of Utomi should help, but the loss of Boatwright will really hurt there and playing two bigs likely won't be great for floor spacing, and if they choose to go ultra big with Mobley, Okongwu, and Rakocevic all on the floor at one, there could be some real floor spacing problems, especially if Mobley proves unable to shoot from deep.
X-Factor: USC has struggled with inconsistency, and Elijah Weaver could be the guy to straighten that out. He wasn't the biggest factor as a freshman, but finished the year strong and showed promise of being able to lead the offense. He has good size for a point guard at 6'5", which should make him good defensively, and has a fairly good shooting stroke. He needs to take better care of the ball this year after averaging 1.7 turnovers last season, and him being able to take care of the ball and set up his teammates, especially the talented front line, is key. The Trojans had point guard issues last year, and having a steady hand there would be big. If he can step up and play well, then look for USC to go dancing. If not, there may not be a better alternative and USC could once again fail to live up to expectations.
Final Verdict: This is a hard team to peg given they have been in this situation before. They've had the talent and promise, but it hasn't translated to on the court success. Andy Enfield isn't the best coach, but he may have a good team on his hands. The roster fits much better than year's past with more shooting and some personnel that fits the zone well, but offense is still a question as they lack a dynamic shot creator and structure on that end. I think they are talented enough to make the tournament, but it won't be as easy as it should be.
7. Oregon State
Starting 5: Ethan Thompson, Zach Reichle, Alfred Hollins, Tres Tinkle, Kylor Kelley
Why They'll Be Good: The Beavers might have the best player in the conference, and it may be the best supporting cast he's ever had. Tres Tinkle is a bonafide stud. There's a real chance the power forward average 20/5/5 this year and he's been an All-American level player. He does is all offensively, as is the go-to scorer, can get buckets both inside and out, often plays as a point forward and is a good passer, and has the entire offense run through him. Defensively, he's pretty solid as well, leading the team in steals last year. This actually has the chance to be a good defensive unit, as Tinkle's front court partner Kylor Kelley is an absolute monster on that end. The 7'1" center was second in the nation in blocks with 3.4, and if he ends up playing more minutes, those numbers could even go up. Additionally, Alfred Hollins is a good defender on the wing, but has his struggle offensively. Luckily, Ethan Thompson should pick up the slack for him. His brother Stephen was the second leading scorer last year and Ethan played more of a secondary role, but look for him to step up and take on more of the scoring load this season. Zach Reichle is a guy who should take a step forward as a shooter this year and provide more of an offensive punch, and freshman guard Jarod Lucas comes in with a scoring reputation. Junior college wing Sean Miller-Moore has reportedly been impressive, and he could also provide more offense this year.
Why They Won't: Outside of Tinkle, Kelley, and Thompson, this team is not great. It's pretty bad actually. Hollins stinks out loud on offense, Reichle is a shooter who didn't shoot last year, and they have no other proven guys. Outside of Tinkle and Thompson, offense will be hard to come by. Kelley is just a guy who finishes around the rim, and he isn't really a post scorer either, plus Thompson has to show he can get buckets like his brother did. Tinkle is awesome, but he can't do everything on the offensive end, and I'm not sure how much help he is going to get.
X-Factor: Tres Tinkle and Ehtan Thompson are known quantities, but Zach Reichle is a bit more of an unknown that could step up and be a real contributor offensively. He has a good looking stroke from deep that should space the floor to allow Tinkle and Thompson to do their thing. However, he's been not great from deep thus far in college, making only 33% of his shots over the course of two seasons. He needs to raise that percentage and be a guy who is a reliable three point shooter for the Beavers to make the tournament, as they need that floor spacing and the third scoring option to be a tournament team this year.
Final Verdict: I really want them to be a tournament team, I really do. Tres Tinkle has been hidden by the mediocrity of his supporting cast, but he's been excellent throughout his career and he's a guy who deserves to be seen on a national stage. However, I think the supporting cast holds him back once more this year, as they just don't quite have enough on the offensive end to support Tinkle. Kelly and Thompson are good pieces, and I think they will be right on the bubble, but just won't have enough juice to make it to the Big Dance.
8. UCLA
Starting 5: Tyger Campbell, Prince Ali, Jules Bernard, Cody Riley, Jalen Hill
Why They'll Be Good: UCLA had a year to forget last season, letting go of head coach Steve Alford mid year and really struggling to play well. Mick Cronin is now in, and he should have this team playing better. He is known for making his defenses excellent, and he will try to get the Bruins to buy in on that end. He will have a deep front line to work with. Cody Riley, Jalen Hill, Shareef O' Neal, and Chris Smith were all four star recruits entering UCLA, and Cronin will be able to have a nice rotation there. Look for O' Neal to potentially break out, as he was sidelined for all of last season with heart issues, but is bouncy and has pretty good bloodlines. There's a chance he emerges as the best of this group. Riley and Hill are both primarily post up threats who are both good scorers on the interior. Smith could end up featuring on the wing as well, along with Jules Bernand and freshman Jamie Jacquez. Both are good shooters and they should be good options on offense. Plus, Bernard offers good defensive potential, which Cronin will like. The backcourt has some nice options as well, with Prince Ali being a good scorer and David Singleton emerging as a 3 and D option down the stretch last season. Additionally, Tyger Campbell is healthy, and his passing ability and knack for not committing turnovers should help the offense run smoothly during Cronin's first year in charge.
Why They Won't: When all of these players committed, they committed to a significantly different system. Steve Alford was known for his up tempo, offense first, defense second system, and it remains to be seen how they adapt into Cronin's style. Most of the players aren't great defenders, and they could initially struggle on that end of the floor. They will also be playing much slower, and a lot of the guys, like Campbell and Ali, are much more suited to a more transition based system. In the half court, they could struggle with shot creation. While they have some nice pieces, they lack a guy who is capable of going out and getting a bucket whenever he wants, unless significant strides are made by someone on the team.
X-Factor: After missing all of last season, Tyger Campbell is finally healthy and he's going to be a key piece for the Bruins this year. His passing ability makes him a good point guard option, and he should immediately step into the starting role for UCLA. A top 100 recruit who is known for his skill in transition and his pinpoint passing. However, his fit in Mick Cronin's system is questionable. Cronin isn't exactly known for his up-tempo style, and that's where Campbell is at his best when in the open court. He should take care of the ball well, but he isn't a great scorer, and it remains to be seen how he recovers from his ACL injury and if he maintains the same explosiveness he had before the tear. He needs to be able to play in the half court effectively and compete defensively for him to work with the new coach, and he'll have to prove to him that he is a key piece of this team.
Final Verdict: I think a lot of the fits here are weird. Mick Cronin isn't the most logical fit for UCLA, but he should have this team looking better than it has in the past. But the roster this year is a strange fit for Cronin's style, and I think they will struggle to adapt to the way he wants his teams to play. I just get the wrong feeling about this roster, and I don't think they will end up making the tournament.
The NIT Hopefuls
9. Utah
Starting 5: Rylan Jones, Alfonso Plummer, Both Gach, Timmy Allen, Riley Battin
Why They'll Be Good: I think Utah will have a nice six man rotation. Sophomores Both Gach, Timmy Allen, and Riley Battin will be joined by junior college transfer Alfonso Plummer and freshmen Rylan Jones and Branden Carleson. The sophomore trio should hold down the front court for the foreseeable future, as all were productive as freshmen. Gach is the best offensively of the three, as he looks good attacking the rim and can shoot from deep, while Allen and Battin prefer to do their work on the interior. Battin can step out an make corner threes as well, and Allen is at his best in the high post, so there shouldn't be a ton of floor spacing concerns. Defensively, Gach's length make him a very useful piece, while Allen is already very good on that end. The backcourt will feature Jones and Plummer, both of whom enter with reputations as shooter. Jones should be a good floor general immediately, as his passing ability is excellent and he takes good care of the ball, plus he can knock down shots from deep. Plummer shot 44% from deep on nearly 300 attempt in junior college, so there aren't too many worries about his ability to stretch the floor. Carleson is back from a two year mission trip, and the reports of his skill and size could allow him to contribute immediately. Finnish freshman Mikael Jantunen could also be in play to get minutes this year. Additionally, a quick shoutout to Larry Krystowiak. The long time coach of the Utes is criminally underrated and he does an excellent job of making them competitive every year.
Why They Won't: There is a real concern about depth here, especially in the backcourt. I'm not really sure if Jones can come off the court because there isn't really another point guard on the roster. They are relying on a lot of young guys who will need to play a lot of minutes. I never count out a team just because they rely on freshmen, but given this Utah team and how little experience they have, it's tough to imagine them being good this year.
X-Factor: Perhaps the sophomore with the most to prove is Both Gach. He has the potential to be a go-to guy offensively for the Utes, but he needs to consistently put it together. He was a four star recruit out of high school and averaged 7.7 points a game last year, but will need to step into a larger offensive role this season. The key for him will be the three point shot, as he only made 31.6% of his attempts from deep. If he can iron out the kinks in his jumper and become a more consistent shooter and scorer overall, then perhaps Utah can push for a tournament bid on the back of his scoring prowess. If not, he'll continue to be too inconsistent and the Utes will struggle to space the floor.
Final Verdict: I like the sophomore core, and I think Rylan Jones will be a nice piece to compliment those guys. But it's at least a year too early, as they are too young and I don't know about the bench. I think they struggle on the defensive side of the ball this year, but show flashes of being much better in the years to come.
10. Stanford
Starting 5: Daejon Davis, Tyrell Terry, Bryce Wills, Oscar Da Silva, Lukas Kisunas
Why They'll Be Good: As with Utah, there is a good starting five here. Daejon Davis has shown flashes of living up to his lofty recruiting ranking, and when he's on, he looks excellent. He may turn it over more than you would like from a starting point guard, but he's the best shooter on the roster and has the ability to score in bunches, as he is capable from all three levels, and he's good at getting into passing lanes as well. Tyrell Terry is a four star recruit who is also a good scorer and he should see major minutes right away. Having two ball handlers in the backcourt should reduce the playmaking load on Davis and reduce turnovers on the while. Bryce Wills is a big guard who showed flashes of excellent potential, and is a prime breakout candidate without KZ Okpala and Cormac Ryan around any longer. He's very long and athletic and has a good mid range game, so there's some hope he can shoot from deep more consistently. Joining him on the wing will be freshman Spencer Jones, another good athlete. Up front, the three man rotation of Oscar Da Silva, Lukas Kisunas, and Jaiden DeLaire should be quite good. Da Silva is arguably the best player on the team, as the junior forward can score through face up moves and with his back to the basket, and plays some pretty good defense. Kisunas and DeLaire will both be stepping into bigger roles this year with the departure of Josh Sharma, and they should contribute on the glass.
Why They Won't: The defense on this team was very good last year, and I expect it to take a step back this season. They had a lot of length with KZ Okpala and Josh Sharma, both of whom are gone, and Da Silva is really the only good defender on this team now. They will prioritze running teams off of the three point line, which should work, but it often leads to good looks either in the mid range or at the rim. Additionally, Okpala was a great offensive player, and Stanford will need to replace him, and more importantly, his shooting. Cormac Ryan also leaves a hole with perimeter shooting, which could end being a pretty big issue for Stanford this year. They will need at least one more player to step up and be able to make shots from behind the arc.
X-Factor: For Stanford, Bryce Wills could end up being a star. A top 150 recruit out of Iona Prep, the tall wing has loads of potential. He's a good scorer that needs to work on his jumper, but it's clear to see that he could be an impact player. He averaged 6 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2 assists last year, and had impressive flashes of what he could be. Without KZ Okpala this year, he should see plenty of minutes at small forward and he will need to provide consistent scoring from the wing. His jump shot needs to improve after only making eight threes all of last year, and his lack of a jumper could keep Stanford away from tournament contention. If he is an improved player from behind the arc and more well rounded offensively, he could propel the Cardinal into the bubble picture.
Final Verdict: They remind me of Utah, with some nice young pieces like Wills, Kisunas, and Terry, but they are at least a year away. The defense will be brutal, and I'm not sure they have enough depth to make it through Pac-12 play. There will be games where they look really good, but then they might lose by 20 the next time out. This season will be more about development for their younger players.
The Basement
11. Washington State
Starting 5: Jervae Robinson, Marvin Cannon, CJ Elleby, Deion James, Jeff Pollard
Why They'll Be Good: It's hard for Washington State to be much worse than they have recently, as the Cougars have had 7 straight losing seasons. They welcome in a new coach in Kyle Smith, and I think he'll be able to bring the program back to relevance a little bit. He's been excellent at finding undervalued players on the recruiting trail and is one of the better offensive coaches in the game. The upgrade over Ernie Kent on the sidelines should lead to Wazzou being better this year. They also have an emerging star in CJ Elleby, who was excellent as a freshman. He averaged 14.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 3 assists while shooting over 40% from three, and those numbers could even improve this year with the offense running through him. Marvin Cannon is back with him on the wing, and he's a high flyer capable of playing good defense. Deion James and Jeff Pollard will hold down the front court, with both providing some good rebounding ability. Smith also welcomes seven newcomers, not counting James, who is a transfer from Colorado State, and I'd expect one or two of them to look better than their recruiting ranking says. Not sure who that will be, but be on the lookout for some potential impact freshman.
Why They Won't: The Cougars weren't good last year, and they lose their best player in Robert Franks. The versatile forward was one of the more under-appreciated players in the country because he played for a bad team, but he was excellent, averaging team highs in points and rebounds while maintaining pretty good efficiency for the amount of shots he took. He was also the best defender on the team, and that could be a real weakness this year, especially around the rim without a real shot blocker. While I think Smith is a good fit for the job and a good coach, it could be real tough sledding for him early on.
X-Factor: CJ Elleby was perhaps the most under appreciated freshman in the country. Sure, the Cougars stunk last year, but you saw his stats from last year. Those are absurd, and he will look to build on that this year. I like Kyle Smith a lot as a coach, and I think he'll do a good job of getting him good looks. The biggest question for him is if he can carry the load offensively without Robert Franks around. I think his efficiency will go down this year even if his numbers go up, but if he can morph into a true star, then Washington State could outperform my ranking of them.
Final Verdict: Kyle Smith was an excellent hire. He's shown he can win even with lesser talent and find undervalued guys, so I think he'll be able to turn this program around, but it will take time. CJ Elleby is an excellent piece to build around, but I don't think he's enough to make them good this season. Expect some improvement, but not a lot.
12. Cal
Starting 5: Paris Austin, Matt Bradley, Kareem South, Andre Kelly, DJ Thorpe
Why They'll Be Good: Cal made the tournament three seasons ago, but that feels like it was hundreds of years in the past. They have been absolutely atrocious recently, failing to crack double digit wins each of the past two years, and they quickly let go of Wyking Jones, who was only in charge for those two seasons. He's replaced Mark Fox, and under him, they should be less of a dumpster fire than in the recent past. Paris Austin is a solid point guard who won't turn the ball over too much, and Matt Bradley will look to improve on his double digit scoring averages as a sophomore. He's a good shooter that should be the go-to scorer on the roster. Kareem South was very good at Texas A&M Corpus Christi, and there's hope he can translate up to the Pac-12 for his lone year with the Golden Bears. Sophomore forward Andre Kelly could take a step, and junior wing Juhwan Harris-Dyson has potential as well. DJ Thorpe and Joel Brown are two freshmen that should find immediate minutes as well.
Why They Won't: Losing two of your top three scorers from a team that won 8 games isn't exactly a recipe for success. Justice Sueing and Darius McNeil are gone, and replacing their production will be very difficult. Austin and South were literally mid-major guards at one point in their careers, and they are probably better suited to that level. The offense lacks punch and the defense, while it should be better under Fox, is still likely to get gashed by quality opposition. They lack size on the interior and shot making on the perimeter, and they'll once again inhabit the Pac-12 basement, although expect them to put up more of a fight.
X-Factor: California doesn't have a ton to look forward too, but DJ Thorpe could be a good long term asset. He's going to get immediate minutes at center, possibly even starting, and if he looks good, then he could be a nice part of Mark Fox's rebuild of the Golden Bears. He's supposedly a hard worker and good rebounder, so if he shows an offensive game, then he could end up being one of the guys who leads them into the future. This year won't be pretty, but maybe Thorpe can make it more manageable for Cal fans.
Final Verdict: Mark Fox should have them looking better, but still not good. There is just a lack of talent here, and while they'll likely be more competitive in games this year, I don't know how much that ends up translating into their record. I expect the trend of struggles in Berkley to continue, although there may be brighter days ahead.
First Team All Pac 12
G: Nico Mannion, Arizona
G: Payton Pritchard, Oregon
G: McKinley Wright, Colorado
F: Tres Tinkle, Oregon State
F: Isaiah Stewart, Washington
Second Team All Pac 12
G: Remy Martin, Arizona State
G: Anthony Mathis, Oregon
G: CJ Elleby, Washington State
F: Tyler Bey, Colorado
F: Nick Rakocevic, USC
Third Team All Pac 12
G: Ethan Thompson, Oregon State
G: Bryce Wills, Stanford
G: Josh Green, Arizona
F: Timmy Allen, Utah
F: Jaden McDaniels, Washington
Pac 12 All Freshman Team
G: Nico Mannion, Arizona
G: Josh Green, Arizona
F: Onyeka Okongwu, USC
F: Isaiah Stewart, Washington
F: Jalen McDaniels, Washington
Pac 12 Player of the Year: Tres Tinkle, PF, Oregon State
Pac 12 Freshman of the Year: Nico Mannion, PG, Arizona
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