The Big Ten is going to be super interesting this year. I'm really only confident in roughly four teams being good, and as you'll see, there's this giant group of teams in the middle of the conference that could finish in any order. The top of the conference is absolutely elite, with some of the best teams in the nation, but I think there is a drop off and there could end up being a good number of teams on the bubble this year. Who can emerge from that group will be a fascinating storyline, and one I'm excited to track throughout the year. Let me know your thoughts on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and tell me how you see the conference playing out.
The Contenders
1. Michigan State
Starting 5: Cassius Winston, Rocket Watts, Aaron Henry, Thomas Kithier, Xavier Tillman
Why They'll Be Good: The Spartans have been a model of consistently, finishing near the top of the Big Ten nearly every season. That won't change this year, as they return arguably the best player in the country in Cassius Winston. The point guard was a First Team All-American last year, and it seems likely he'll repeat that this year. He's developed from a good table setter for his teammates into a star in his own right, developing his offensive game while keeping the same distribution skills. It wouldn't be outside of the realm of possibility for Winston to average a double double with points and assists this year, and he should score around 20 points a game. He's at his best in ball screens, where he can either attack the rim, pull up from three, where he's a deadly shooter, or dish it to a teammate. His pick and roll partner will be Xavier Tillman, a junior big who will be a force on the interior. He's a very good scorer around the rim with greta footwork and strength to get his shot off, and he'll anchor the defense with his rebounding and shot blocking abilities. He also showed a little bit of ability to make shots from deep, and if that can be more consistent, watch out. Surrounding them are multiple players poised for breakout seasons. The name on everyone's breakout lists this year is Aaron Henry, and with good reason. He started 22 of the last 23 games for the Spartans, and constantly showed flashes of being a star, including dropping 20 on LSU in the Sweet Sixteen. He's an excellent defender, and on offensive, he can shoot as well as use his abundant length to finish around the hoop. Look for him to be one of the better players not only on the team, but in the conference. Fellow sophomores Thomas Kithier and Marcus Bingham will battle for minutes next to Tillman in the front court. Kithier was effective in limited minutes last season, and he's a talented low post scorer. Bingham is more athletic and versatile than Kithier, but also more unproven. He could develop into a stretch four with plenty of bounce to block shots and throw down dunks this year, but he needs to get on the court to do so. Gabe Brown should find minutes on the wing as a 3 and D option and Foster Loyer will continue to serve as the backup to Winston, rounding out the sophomore class. The freshman class should be able to find minutes right away, as All Name First Team member Rocket Watts and Malik Hall, two top 75 recruits, should be able to find minutes. Watts is a high scoring guard who will serve as a secondary ball handler and playmaker who will get buckets from all three levels. Meanwhile, Hall is an extremely versatile forward who can do it all. He's adept as a dribbler and passer while also being able to score inside and out. He could end up seizing the starting four man spot by the end of the season if he lives up to his potential. This group is going to be good both offensively and defensively, making them one of the most feared teams in the nation.
Why They Won't: There are two key cogs who are currently injured: Kyle Ahrens and Joshua Langford. Ahrens is a spot up shooter who has experience with Izzo and would've likely been a starter on the wing with his floor spacing ability. However, he suffered a high ankle sprain in a preseason exhibition game and is going to miss some time. Getting him back quickly would provide some nice shooting and experience to the Spartans. Langford is both the more significant loss and the one with a less definite timetable. He suffered an ankle injury last year that held him to 13 games, and it was recently announced that he was out indefinitely. He was going to be the secondary offensive engine with his scoring ability on the wing, and it now looks as if he'll be out until at least the start of conference play. This means that Sparty needs the breakouts to come, rather than being able to bring some of the freshman and sophomores along slowly. There will also be more inexperienced players on the floor than we've seen from Michigan State in recent years, with the rotation consisting mostly of underclassmen. They'll need someone to step up into the role Langford was expected to fill this year.
X-Factor: If there is one player that people are expecting to break out, it's sophomore wing Aaron Henry. I talked about him earlier, but he was a starter for Michigan State down the stretch and showed a lot of promising flashes of becoming a star during his time in East Lansing. He'll need to step up without Langford this year and be the primary scorer on the wing. He's certainly capable of doing so, but with defenses more alert to him and Henry encountering better defenders this year, it could be more difficult for him. He'll need maintain his efficiency, especially from behind the arc, while taking more shots against better players this year, or else Cassius Winston will have an even bigger load on his shoulders.
Final Verdict: Michigan State is gonna be real good this year. Led by an All-American point guard and with multiple high level role players surrounding him, they are going to be tough to stop. The loss of Langford lowers their ceiling slightly, but Aaron Henry should take a step forward, and Watts and Hall look like they'll be immediate contributors. I'd expect them to not only win the Big Ten, but challenge for a national title this season.
2. Ohio State
Starting 5: CJ Walker, DJ Carton, Luther Muhammad, Andre Wesson, Kaleb Wesson
Why They'll Be Good: Ohio State has an excellent make up that is conductive to winning: a great coach, key pieces returning, and some impact newcomers. Starting with the coach, Chris Holtmann is one of the best with the clipboard in the country, and he does an excellent job of not only setting up his teams for success, but maximizing the talent on his roster. He will have the luxury of bringing back some great players. Kaleb Wesson is going to be a load inside once again, and he's shown a little bit of shooting ability from the perimeter. While that's nice, his skills on the interior are some of the best in the country and he's one of the best in the country at using his size to his advantage. His older brother, Andre, should join him as a starter in the front court and he provides more of the perimeter based play. He also is a good defender of both bigs and perimeter players, and he's the leader of the team of the lone senior. Kyle Young rounds out the returning front court players, and he can share the court with the Wesson brothers or give one of them a break. He is a throwback big, as he crashes the glass hard and does the little things. Look for that on the broadcast if he ever takes a charge. In the backcourt, defensive stopper Musa Jallow, microwave scorer Duane Washington, and Luther Muhammad all return. While the first two are role players, Muhammad is a starter and the New Jersey native is expected to have a big year. He's a good shooter from the wing, and an elite on ball defender. If he can improve as a slasher, look for him to have a big year. Finally, they have the best recruiting class in the Big Ten and also welcome in a transfer. CJ Walker comes over from Florida State, where he was a starter as a sophomore, and he should be an immediate contributor. He's a good game manager who can also make shots from the perimeter, and he'll share time with borderline five star guard DJ Carton. Carton is a great athlete with a plus wingspan that should make him very good defensively, and he is very good at attacking the rim. I think those two can share the backcourt and they compliment each other very well. Top 50 recruits EJ Liddell and Alonzo Gaffney will also join, with Liddell looking to get minutes at the four, and he'll carve out a role as a tenacious rebounder and good defender, while Gaffney oozes potential thanks to his long arms and athleticism. He could be good defensively right away, but he lacks strength, so it may take a year for him to be ready to contribute at a high level. Speaking of defense, they were a very good unit last year, and that shouldn't change this year. Andre Wesson, Jallow, Muhammad, Young, Carton, Liddell, and Gaffney are all good defenders, and CJ Walker and Kaleb Wesson aren't anything to scoff at either. Their offense should be improved as well, so they will be a very good program this year.
Why They Won't: Inexperience is always something that I feel the need to bring up, since you never know how players will translate to the college game. They do only have one senior on the roster, so if things go poorly, it remains to be seen how they will react. They also may have some trouble shooting, with Muhammad and Walker being the only plus guys from deep. Washington was a highly touted shooter who struggled as a freshmen, so he will need to improve, and Carton and the Wesson brothers need to be around average from deep, but those are some questions. They also are relying on Carton and Walker to replicate the shot creation of departures CJ Jackson and Keyshawn Woods, and Carton will have a lot on his shoulder.
X-Factor: Luther Muhammad
Final Verdict: The more I look at this team, the more I like it. The roster has a ton of possibilities, with the ability to play three guards, like I'm projecting, or you can put Liddell in and move Andre Wesson to the three. I think they'll be very good on defense, and I buy into Walker, Carton, and Liddell all being guys who come in from the jump and contribute. The backcourt pairing of Walker and Carton has the potential to be one of the best in the country. This is a deep and talented group, and I think they give Michigan State a run for their money this year.
3. Maryland
Starting 5: Anthony Cowan, Eric Ayala, Aaron Wiggins, Ricky Lindo, Jalen Smith
Why They'll Be Good: The Terrapins return a ton of talent with multiple players expected to make jumps this year, and they should have little problem challenging at the top of the Big Ten. Anthony Cowan leads the backcourt, as the senior guard is the leading returning scorer. After a failed experiment to move him off ball, he's back to handling the point guard duties, and he should have no problem scoring. He's got good speed with the ball in his hands and has shown pull up ability throughout his career, so he will be the primary catalyst for the offense. Jalen Smith will look to emerge in the front court to compliment the star guard. He was good as a freshman, but took a back seat to Bruno Fernando. While he isn't as strong as Fernando, he is bouncier, and can play out on the perimeter a bit. He should emerge as a two way force this year. They are surrounded by some of Smith's classmates, as Maryland's rising sophomore class looks like it's filled will contributors. Guards Eric Ayala, Aaron Wiggins, and Serrel Smith are all expected to be big parts of the rotation this year. Wiggins has been projected as a breakout player thanks to his prodigious scoring ability. He gets it done at all three levels, he was the team's best three point shooter last year, and he's earned himself more minutes this year. Meanwhile, Smith is a defensive whiz, while Ayala is a blend of the two, as he's a capable shooter and defender, plus has ball handling ability, but he doesn't do anything at a super high level. Junior guard Darryl Morsell will also find plenty of minutes as an elite defender, possibly one of the best in the country. Finally, sophomore forward Ricky Lindo could be in for a real breakout season. He's got an intriguing blend of length and skill, and he should at the very least be able to be a good defender and rebounder. There is a possibility that he can play out on the perimeter as well, which would be very intriguing indeed. Freshmen Makhi Mitchell and Chol Marial are two guys with good size who should enter the front court rotation as well, and wing Donta Scott could see time as a small ball four.
Why They Won't: Mark Turgeon isn't known for his coaching prowess. In fact, he is known for having his teams underperform their talent levels. That's not what you want to hear if you're high on Maryland. As with Michigan State, they are relying on some breakouts this year, and outside of Cowan and Smith, and maybe Wiggins I guess, no one is proven as a scorer. As a matter of fact, Morsell has proven that he is a negative on that end, and Smith looks likes he's heading that way as well. Maryland will need some of the sophomores to establish themselves as quality players on that end if they hope to compete near the top of the conference.
X-Factor: Just like Aaron Henry, Aaron Wiggins is on seemingly every breakout list in America. There's a reason for that. As a freshman, he made 41.3% of his threes and scored 8.3 points a game. He is a very fluid athlete and can create his own shot off of the dribble, which makes him dangerous whenever he has the ball. However, he struggled to finish at the rim and on the defensive end of the floor. With Smith and Morsell ready to contribute as defenders, he'll need to step up his game if he wants to stay on the court. He also needs to be ready to assume a greater offensive load and make sure he isn't overwhelmed with the increased responsibility. He certainly passes the eye test as a potential impact offensive player, and if his defense improves enough, he could even play some small ball four, but he needs to become more well rounded before he can be relied upon on the offensive end.
Final Verdict: The Terrapins are such an interesting team. They clearly have the talent, but their coach seems disinterested in utilizing it in the best way and may be holding the team back from it's full potential. With Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith, they will have two stars, and I think Wiggins will be very good as well, so they will still be one of the best teams in the conference, and with a better coach, they may even push Michigan State. However, they'll likely be a slight disappointment based on Mark Turgeon's track record.
The Tournament Teams
4. Purdue
Starting 5: Nojel Eastern, Jahaad Proctor, Sasha Stefonovic, Aaron Wheeler, Matt Haarms
Why They'll Be Good: Purdue has been consistently been great the last few years, and last year was no exception. I was admittedly wrong about them, and I won't make the same mistake this year. Despite losing Carsen Edwards, Matt Painter will have his team ready to go offensively and, side note, there may not be a coach who gets less national media attention for being awesome. Basically everyone in college basketball circles recognizes how incredible he is, but it seems like you never hear talk about him on ESPN. Painter is a great coach, and he'll have this team ready to go on the offensive end. The biggest question is replacing Carsen Edwards, who was an absolute flamethrower last year and one of the best players in the nation. He's gone, but Painter has some very good players to fill the void collectively. Jahaad Proctor will slide into Edwards role from last year, but the High Point transfer is obviously not as talented as Edwards. Still, he has the scoring ability, especially from behind the arc, and he fills in as a similar archetype as Edwards. Sasha Stefonovic will also be a floor spacer, and he'll step into Ryan Cline's shoes as a deadeye from behind the arc. The floor spacing will be necessary given that Nojel Eastern, the primary ball handler, is a non-shooter. He's a wing really, but he's developed into a good facilitator and a triple double threat. Sophomores Aaron Wheeler, Eric Hunter, and Trevion Williams are all in line for breakout years. Hunter is a solid ball handler and there is hope he becomes a more consistent shooter this season. Wheeler and Williams are two front court guys who, along with Matt Haarms, will form a terrifying defensive front court. Eastern is also a great defender, and these three will contribute to a very good defense. Wheeler is a superb athlete who can guard 2-4, and on offense, he looks primed for a huge year. He can really attack the rim well and has shown promise as a shooter, and I think he can be their leading scorer this year. Williams and Haarms should split minutes at the 5, and they compliment each other very well. Williams is more of the bruiser as a really good scorer and rebounder, while Haarms is a finesse guy who is 7'3" and a great shot blocker. I think their defense takes a step forward while their offense takes a step back, and they look good once again this year.
Why They Won't: It can't be overstated how good Carsen Edwards was. The dude was absolutely insane, and a lot of people, even myself right now, are just sort of putting our trust in Matt Painter to replace an All American who was a top 10 scorer in the nation. He was able to keep them in a ton of games by just getting hot and filling it up. They don't have that guy right now, and I don't think they will all year. Shot creation could end up being a problem with them relying on a Big South grad transfer and a guy in Wheeler who scored 4.7 points per game last year to get their looks. They also need the shooting out of Proctor and Stefonovic to be knockdown shooters, and Wheeler to be at least average, because Eastern is really brutal on that end. There is the concern that the offense just falls off of a cliff without Edwards, and it makes them a bit of a risky bet.
X-Factor: Replacing Carsen Edwards scoring will obviously not be easy, but Jahaad Proctor will fill that same role. He's a very good scorer who can make shots from deep, and I believe he'll fit in with the rest of the roster. Obviously, he won't be able to replicate that level fo play, but he did score 19.5 points a game last season for High Point. He will need to convert that scoring to a higher level of play if Purdue wants to be good this year. If not, they could struggle to get buckets in the half court and the court could shrink because of the lack of shooting on the roster. If he can do his best impression of Edwards, then look for Purdue to be a very good team once more.
Final Verdict: I learned my lesson last year, as I continually said Purdue was overrated, basically right up until they went to the Elite Eight, and I will not be betting against Matt Painter this year. They have some very intriguing pieces, and I'm a very big Aaron Wheeler guy, I think he's in for a big year. Proctor will have to bring his play up a level in completion, and Eastern has to figure out how to score, but they have a good defense and I think they will be comfortably be in the tournament.
5. Illinois
Starting 5: Ayo Dosunmu, Trent Frazier, Tevian Jones, Giorgi Bezhanishvili, Kofi Cockburn
Why They'll Be Good: The Fighting Illini are going to need to keep up their end of the season run this year, and there is a lot of hope that they can do that. They have a three headed backcourt monster that is a great fit for coach Brad Underwood's affinity for the press, with Ayo Dosunmu, Trent Frazier, and Andre Felix all creating havoc with their ability to get turnovers. While Underwood has mentioned wanting to press less, as there system he used at Stephen F Austin has been ineffective, but using some form of pressure seems like a good idea given the defensive strength of the guards. Of the three, Dosunmu is the best on the offensive end, being very quick and a good finisher and playmaker. Frazier is a capable shooter from distance and Feliz a nice sixth man as a secondary ball handler. Tevian Jones is one of those guys I'll always buy into as a breakout candidate. The sophomore had a good recruiting ranking, is a good athlete, and has potential to shoot the ball, and at the very least, should be good in transition. Up front, there is surprise freshman star Giorgi Bezhanishvili, who went to the Sandro Mamukelashvili school of only being referred to by their first name, who was more effective than anyone could have imagined, and top 50 recruit Kofi Cockburn. I think they could end up playing together this year, as Cockburn is an ideal player to have at the back of a press with his ability to swat shots away, and Giorgi is sneakily mobile for a 6'9" European big. I don't feel great about having him run around on the perimeter, but the defense could be terrifying at the rim. Kipper Nichols really struggled last year, and he will have to find his outside shot to be a contributor for this team.
Why They Won't: For a team that wants to press a lot, at least in theory, I don't love the depth on this roster. They might only go 7-8 deep, depending on what you think you get out of De'Monte Williams, and that's going to lead to tired legs. Also, the press may just not work against Big Ten competition, and I'm not entirely sure what the defense will look like if Brad Underwood abandons it completely. Offensively, shooting is a worry. Playing Giorgi and Cockburn together means that everyone else needs to be able to space the floor, and I just don't think that's going to happen. Dosunmu is an OK shooter, and Frazier is a plus, but they need Jones and Feliz to get into the 30s, and likely the 35-36% range. It's just far too easy to clog the paint against this team right now and dare them to hit threes.
X-Factor: As I mentioned, there is a key potential breakout candidate own the roster in Tevian Jones. He was a borderline top 100 recruit coming into school last year, and he was mostly disappointing as freshman. He only scored 3.5 points a game and shot under 30% from three despite his abundant potential. It was never more clear than when he scored 18 points in a game against Maryland, including making 4 shots from beyond the arc. He also has a lot of defensive potential, given his long arms and athleticism. He has the potential to be one of the best players on the team, and if he breaks out, he'll elevate the Fighting Illini to a new level with an additional dynamic scorer on the wing.
Final Verdict: I think this is the year that the press would work, and it seems to be the year that Underwood is ready to abandon it. I think this team would thrive upon the chaos created by the guards getting into passing lanes and playing more in transition, where the concerns about shooting are much less of a factor. I'm a huge fan of Dosunmu and Frazier in the backcourt, and I think the front line can work, but Jones needs to deliver. I think they make the tournament just by beating the teams they should at the bottom of the conference, but I don't expect them to be a team that looks super good or anything like that.
The Bubble Teams
6. Iowa
Starting 5: Jordan Bohannon, Bakari Evelyn, Joe Wieskamp, Patrick McCaffery, Luka Garza
Why They'll Be Good: The Hawkeyes offense projects to be quite good now that Jordan Bohannon looks like he's healthy. The point guard is an elite shooter who looked like he was going to miss the season with a hip injury, but is now apparently playing. His ball handling and shooting ability should be key for Iowa. He can also play off ball some more with Valparaiso transfer Bakari Evelyn in, another potentially good shooter who is a solid game manager type. Joe Wieskamp could be in for a breakout season after scoring in double digits as a freshman, and he'll step into a bigger role as the Hawkeyes go to wing scorer. He's another knockdown shooter, and he has the ability to create his own shot as well. Connor and Patrick McCaffery will also find minutes on the perimeter as, you guessed it, shooters, although Connor isn't as good as his brother is from deep. Up front, Luka Garza is one of the more underrated players in the country, as the big man averaged 13 points a game last year and is a really good post scorer. He, like seemingly this entire roster, has some three point range, although he's not a great shooter. Ryan Kreiner and Jack Nunge will also factor into the front court rotation as two non-shooters, but both have ability down low and are good rebounders. If you couldn't tell, shooting will be a strength for the Hawkeyes.
Why They Won't: Well, their defense will stink. It was one of the worst in the Big Ten last year, and they lost arguably their best defender in Isaiah Moss. They will likely be a sieve on the perimeter, and none of the bigs are going to erase shots with the departure of the bouncy Tyler Cook. I'm also not completely convinced that Bohannon is fully healthy. If his hip injury flares up or limits up from being at full effectiveness, then Iowa could struggle. His shooting, and especially his pull up game are so key to the success of the team. I also think he's a good deal better than Evelyn or whoever else they'd throw out there, and the team as a whole just wouldn't be as good without him at full health.
X-Factor: There isn't a bigger swing player on this roster than Jordan Bohannon. He's been a double digit scorer in all three of his seasons with Iowa, and his ball handling and passing make him a good all around player. His shooting ability from behind the arc makes him a real threat whenever he has the ball in his hands, and it opens up a lot of the offense for the Hawkeyes. However, he does have this nagging hip issue that could pop up again and be a recurring problem throughout the season. If he is hampered or can't play to his full potential this year, then Iowa's tournament chances go down. However, if he's back to his full form, then this team will be a really good team.
Final Verdict: Welcome to the portion of the Big Ten where I just have absolutely no idea what to do with these teams. The 6 teams on the bubble are so confusing to me. They could literally finish in any order I wouldn't be surprised. The trio of Bohannon, if he is indeed playing, Wieskamp, and Garza is better than anything the other teams have, so I have Iowa as the best of the bubble teams and into the tournament. However, without Bohannon, they would drop to ninth and end up on the wrong side of the bubble. This conference is a mess.
7. Wisconsin
Starting 5: D'Mitrik Trice, Brad Davison, Kobe King, Aleem Ford, Nate Reuvers
Why They'll Be Good: The Badgers are another one of those programs that you just sort of expect to be good every year no matter who is on the roster. However, the loss of Ethan Happ will be a tough one to overcome. The forward did everything for the Badgers, from scoring, to rebounding, to even bringing the ball up. He will be sorely missed, but this team isn't to be left for dead. They have a good backcourt with juniors D'Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison who are ready to assume the lead scoring roles. Both can shoot from deep and handle the ball well, although Trice is more of a pull up threat while Davison can get to the bucket. Look for former transfer Brevin Pritzl and Trevon Anderson to also factor into the backcourt rotation and both of them can shoot from deep. Pritzl especially will be relied upon as a bench shooter given his excellent end to the year, making 53.5% of his threes in conference play. On the wing, Kobe King looks ready to step into a bigger role as a freshman. Already a good defender, he is good when attacking the rim and could be improved offensively this year. Up front, Nate Reuvers will attempt to fill Happ's shoes. While he obviously isn't going to be as good, he offers some different elements. He's a much better shooter from the perimeter than Happ, and on the defensive end, they won't lose a ton. Aleem Ford is also supposedly able to stretch the floor, although he struggled to shoot from deep last year, and he will offer potentially more floor spacing. Micah Potter comes over from Ohio State, and he'll be a grinder on the interior for rebounds and also potentially offer perimeter jump shooting.
Why They Won't: Losing Ethan Happ is going to be a big loss. He was so influential to everything they did offensively, and they will need Trice and Davison to step up and become the guys. Additionally, their defense will take a step back. While they will still be good, they were an absolutely elite level last year, and they will undoubtably be worse this year. And while they do have plenty of shooters, there are questions about some of the more important guys, like Kobe King and Aleem Ford. Those two will need to be near average shooters for this team to be near its peak, and if not, the floor spacing could be quite cramped.
X-Factor: With Wisconsin losing Ethan Happ, they will need big man Nate Reuvers to step up as the guy in the front court. Reuvers was a four recruit out of high school, and he's never truly gotten up to that level. He started every game for the Badgers last year, and he will need to step into a bigger role offensively this year. He has skills both inside and out, making 38% of his threes last year, and he's got the potential to be a really good big. He needs to improve his rebounding and he won't bring the same playmaking abilities as Happ did, so there will no doubt be a drop off. He needs to become a better scorer overall this year, and turn some of his length and shot blocking abilities into production on the boards if Wisconsin wants to be a tournament team this year.
Final Verdict: I'm almost just picking this on name alone. Wisconsin feels like they deserve the same level of program respect that Virginia and even Purdue in their own conference have been getting, but they aren't. Ethan Happ is obviously a massive loss, but Trice and Davison is a nice back court, and I'm a fan of Reuvers. And to be honest, as I was writing this, I grew a little more bullish on the Badgers as well. They should be able to score from deep and have a good enough defense to make it to the tournament.
8. Michigan
Starting 5: Zavier Simpson, Eli Brooks, Cole Bajema, Isaiah Livers, Jon Teske
Why They'll Be Good: The Wolverines enjoyed a long run of success in the Big Ten under John Beilein, but he departed for the NBA this offseason. They hired alum Juwan Howard, who was well regarded during his time on the sidelines with the Miami Heat as an assistant coach, but it remains to be seen how he adapts to the college game. He should keep the pick and roll that Beilein used an embrace NBA pace and space concepts. The Zavier Simpson and Jon Teske pick and roll that was so effective last year should be back. Simpson isn't a great shooter, but he was incredibly effective as a pick and roll playmaker and Teske was great as a roll man. They also have a stable of shooters, like Isaiah Livers, Adrien Nunez, and David DeJulius, plus freshman Cole Bajema should be good from deep as well. Their defense might take a hit after losing incredible assistant coach Luke Yaklich to Texas, but Simpson, Teske, and others are stout on that end and should keep the defense at a high level.
Why They Won't: This team feels like it was built for John Beilein and Luke Yaklich, and I don't know what it will look like under Juwan Howard's leadership. Guys like Simpson and Teske were very effective in a very specific system, and translating that will be a challenge in my opinion. I'm also unsure of how good the roster is beyond Simpson, Livers, and Teske, as they are the only ones who have proven themselves at the Big Ten level. This transition could end up being very ugly and I'm not sure where that leaves the Wolverines this year.
X-Factor: I really do not know what to do with Michigan, so I'll throw Isaiah Livers out as my x-factor. He has the potential to be very good in the Juwan Howard system. His ability to stretch the floor as a 42.6% three point shooter last year should be very beneficial for the NBA system that Howard will likely implement in Ann Arbor. He's got a chance to be one of the best players on the team and he might become a star in the new system. There's a chance he doesn't do that, and Michigan would really struggle, so him adapting to the new system and spacing the floor will be big for the Wolverines.
Final Verdict: If this is the section where I don't know what to do with any of the teams, Michigan is the biggest question mark. The coaching change cannot be overstated. With Beilein and Yaklich gone, who knows what the Wolverines look like on either side of the ball. I also don't know how the players on the roster fit into whatever Juwan Howard players, as guys like Simpson and Teske felt so specific to the previous regime. I know this section is quite short, but I just do not know what Michigan will look like this season. This team could sneakily go up in flames, but I think the defense is just good enough to lead them into March, but man, I have no read on them at all.
9. Rutgers
Starting 5: Geo Baker, Montez Mathis, Ron Harper, Akwasi Yeobah, Myles Johnson
Why They'll Be Good: I'm optimistic about Rutgers this year. And no, that isn't a joke. The Scarlet Knights return a good group of players and add two guys that I think will make an immediate impact. Leading returning scorer Geo Baker will lead Rutgers once again, and the junior guard will look to build off a strong sophomore campaign. He put up over 12 points and 4 assists, and thrive off penetration and also has a good mid range game. He'll be aided by a strong sophomore class. Montez Mathis, Ron Harper, and Myles Johnson should all be starters, while Caleb McConnell will be a bench shooter and backup point guard. Mathis is a great defense with good length who really compete on that end of the floor. Offensively, he's good at attacking the rim, but needs to get his shooting mechanics worked out. Harper is one of those guys like Tevian Jones where I will always think "Well if he can just put it all together...". He's got excellent length and he is a smooth athlete. He looked better as a shooter during Big Ten play, and already excels inside the arc. The pieces are all there for him, and he could emerge as a really good player this year. Johnson is a tenacious rebounder and good defender, and with an added year of experience, he should offer more of a scoring threat in the post. He'll split minutes with the more offensive gifted Shaq Carter on the interior, and be on the lookout for Peter Kiss, a sharpshooting wing who should be better in his second year in the Big Ten after transferring from Quinnipiac. They also add two transfers and a good freshman to round out their team. Akwasi Yeobah is an import from Stony Brook, where he was recruited by currently Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell, and he offers a versatile package. He's a good rebounder, which also him to play the four, and he can operate on the perimeter with good ball skills. He will look to translate his 16.7 points per game in the America East into Big Ten play smoothly. Fellow transfer Jacob Young from Texas also offers scoring impact. He never fully got his chance to shine with the Longhorns, but he looked good in spurts and will offer another guy who gets to the rim really well. Finally, freshman Paul Mulcahy is a do it all wing who can handle the ball, and could even play some point to let Rutgers go super big. It'll be interesting to see how Pikiell deploys him this year.
Why They Won't: With the loss of program star Eugene Omoruyi, Rutgers could struggle to score. Baker is the only one who has proven he can consistently get buckets against Big Ten defenders. Yeobah has the potential to be a double digit scorer, but it's never easy to figure out how players translate their games from lower levels. Mathis, Harper, and Young all have the potential to be good scores, but they will need to prove it first, as will Johnson. Omoruyi's loss will also be felt defensively, and they need a few of their guys to step up and be solid on that end of the floor.
X-Factor: There are a ton of guys who could be breakouts on this team and provide some nice scoring for the Scarlet Knights, but I've gone with Ron Harper. As I've mentioned, I love the archetype of Harper, and he could be a guy who breaks out in a big way this year. Coming out of Don Bosco Prep in New Jersey, he's got a very nice frame, and he could potentially be a great scorer. He's smooth when attacking the rim and has a good looking jumper. He averaged just under 8 points a game, so he could easily step up into a bigger role and be a go to wing scorer for the Scarlet Knights. I really think he comes into his own and becomes a good player, but if not, buckets could be hard to come by for Rutgers.
Final Verdict: I like DePaul and Rutgers this year. I don't know what that says about my college basketball evaluation abilities, but I'm at the point where I think Rutgers has a legitimate shot to make the tournament. I really like this roster, and I think the guard play will be strong. They should be deeper than before, and I buy the defense being good. I do think the tournament is just a step too far for this young team, but I'd be pretty shocked if this core didn't end up dancing at least once during their time in Piscataway.
10. Indiana
Starting 5: Rob Phinisee, Devonte Green, Aljami Durham, Trayce Jackson-Davis, De'Ron Davis
Why They'll Be Good: This team is going to bully people on the inside with their deep stable of big men. Justin Smith and De'Ron Davis return, and Joey Brunk and Trayce Jackson-Davis come in as well to give them one of the more physically imposing front lines in the country. Smith is the most perimeter oriented of the four, and he is very good at attacking the rim from the wing. He doesn't stretch the floor with his shooting, but he's a good slasher. Davis is a physical best and great rebounder, and his physicality makes him a very good defender in the post. Brunk is a similar player, although a little better on the offensive end while giving some of the defense back, and he'll be a steady presence for them. Jackson-Davis is a borderline five star talent who is a very good athlete and might be able to guard fours. Additionally, he has some face up talent and might be able to stretch out the perimeter just a little bit. Shooting was a massive concern for them last year, and there is hope it will be better. Rob Phinisee, Devonte Green, and Aljami Durham all come back and should be able to stretch the floor, at least somewhat. Phinisee and Green will share the point guard duties, and they should share the court in some dual guard looks. Durham showed improvement as a jump shooter last year and he will have to not only keep that consistency, but probably even improve this year. Keep an eye on Jerome Hunter this year. He was a four star recruit ranked in the top 60 last year, but was out with an injury all year. Assuming he's healthy, he's a versatile forward who can shoot from deep and also has some playmaking ability as well, and he could be a big piece for them. Given the amount of big bodies and athleticism on the wing, the defense should be pretty good, and they'll likely lock down the glass.
Why They Won't: Offense is still a real concern. The shooting issues are still there and they are bad. Durham and Phinisee are touted as some of the best shooters on the roster, and they shot under 35% from three last year. It's really bad on the perimeter in Bloomington, and they will need to figure out how to space the floor if they want to be effective, especially since they want to run their offense through their bigs. Defense should be able to clog up the paint against them and limit the effectiveness of their big bodies. They will need to space the floor, and I just really don't know if they can do that.
X-Factor: Rob Phinisee was a freshman that I thought did quite well during his first year playing in Assembly Hall. He was a four star recruit out of high school, and made national attention for his buzzer beater against Butler. I do think he can be a better player this year, as he'll relied upon for a lot of shot creation and ball handling for the Hooisers this year. I expect all of his numbers to take a step forward with more time with the ball, and he could be the go to scorer on the perimeter for Indiana. If he can't become a guy who can get buckets on the perimeter, especially if he isn't shooting threes, then Indiana could have problems with floor spacing and scoring from places other than the interior. Look for him to be a potential breakout this year.
Final Verdict: Once again, who knows what this team will be. I think Phinisee and Jackson-Davis will be good this year, but beyond that, I've got nothing. They should be good on the interior, but I just don't think they can shoot it like at all, and that's a pretty big problem in my eyes. I like Archie Miller as a coach, and he seems to be building something pretty nice, with a good looking recruiting class for next year, but the Hoosier faithful could get fed up with another season without a tournament berth, which I do think happens this year.
11. Minnesota
Starting 5: Marcus Carr, Gabe Kalscheur, Tre Williams, Alihan Demir, Daniel Oturu
Why They'll Be Good: There are quite a few nice pieces on the Minnesota roster. Daniel Oturu didn't get enough credit for his good freshman campaign on the block, and he will continue the tradition of good Minnesota bigs. He is quite a good scorer in the post and he is good on the boards as well. His classmate, Gabe Kalscheur, will lead the team on the perimeter. He's a great shooter who will look to expand his game and offer more in the way of attacking the rim and his game with the ball in his hands. Those two will be helped by an influx of newcomers. On the recruit trail, Richard Pitino brings in two top 150 recruits in Isaiah Ihnen and Tre Williams. Ihnen is a guy I know very little about, as he is coming over from Germany, but he's apparently an athletic forward who can contribute right away. Meanwhile, Williams is a polished scorer who can shoot for deep, and could step directly into the starting lineup for the Golden Gophers. Pitino also added three transfer in Marcus Carr, Peyton Willis, and Alihan Demir. Carr was good on a very, very bad Pittsburgh team, and he will be running the show at point. He is a good passer who will look to set up Kalscheur and Oturu, and he should be able to contribute with his ability to attack the rim. Willis is another shooter who should be a factor this year, and Demir is another floor spacer as a forward, although he offers more than Willis with his ability to rebound as well. I actually think the offense will be pretty good and they should have plenty of shooting.
Why They Won't: I really worry about the defensive end with this team. Jordan Murphy and Amir Coffey were two program stalwarts who really contributed on both ends, and I think it's felt more defensively. Murphy was a walking double double who consistently gobbled up boards, while Coffey was the best perimeter defender on the roster. Outside of Oturu, I'm not sure how much defense they will be playing this year. They also have little to no depth. The seven players I mentioned are really the only seven good ones on the roster, and I'm not sure how good Ihnen actually is. They could be relying a lot on their starters, and that could be harmful down the stretch, especially in a league as physical as the Big Ten.
X-Factor: The lowest ranked recruit coming into Minnesota last year, Gabe Kalscheur surprised by contributing in a big way. He averaged double digit points and shot over 40% from three, and he'll likely step into a bigger role this year on offense. He will need to develop a game with the ball in his hands rather than just being a catch and shoot threat, and he needs to work on becoming a more of a threat around the basket. If he can develop his game to be more than just shooting, then he could lead this team in scoring an be a full breakout on a national scale. If not, he could struggle as a go-to scoring option and be quite inefficient. His development will be key for Minnesota this year.
Final Verdict: I ultimately think the losses of Jordan Murphy and Amir Coffer will be a little too much for this team to handle. The two program cornerstones will be missed dearly, and I'm not sure if the Gophers go more than six deep, at least for quality minutes. I like the shooting potential here, and Gabe Kalscheur is very good, plus Daniel Oturu should have a good season leading the front line. They could finish anywhere in this group of bubble teams, but I just don't think they'll be good enough on defensively to make it to March Madness.
The NIT Hopefuls
12. Penn State
Starting 5: Jamari Wheeler, Myles Dread, Curtis Jones, Lamar Stevens, Mike Watkins
Why They'll Be Good: The Nittany Lions should have one of the best front lines in the conference. Lamar Stevens is a bona fide stud, averaging nearly 20 points a game last year. He is a bit inefficient, but once he gets going, he's nearly impossible to stop. He will lead their offense, while also bringing defensive value. He is joined in the front court by Mike Watkins. Watkins is a very good defender in the post, and he and Stevens make for a good defensive front court duo. He has some ability as a post scorer, but he shouldn't be counted on as a go-to option. I actually think the defense will be quite good in Happy Valley this year, with guys like Jamari Wheeler and Seth Lundy projecting as plus defenders on the wing, and getting out in transition, as that's where Stevens is at his best, as is Curtis Jones.
Why They Won't: To be frank, I don't believe in their backcourt at all. Two of their three leading scorers are gone in Rasir Bolton and Josh Reaves, and I think shooting will be a big issue. Myles Dread is probably the best shooter on the roster, but I think he's like a fifth best player in an ideal situation, and he'll be looked to as the leader of the perimeter group. Wheeler offers nothing offensively, and turns it over far too much for a point guard. Curtis Jones is sure going to shoot the ball a lot, but it remains to see how much he makes it, and Myreon Jones was pretty terrible as a freshman. There is hope that Lundy, a freshman, can be effective offensively this year, but I think he's a bit more of a project. Finally, Saint Bonaventure transfer Isaiah Brockington should be counted on to shoot it, but I don't really know what else he does. There are far too many question marks offensively for me to be confident about this team. I also think the defense takes a step back without Reaves, as he was excellent at creating turnovers and made them significantly better on that end.
X-Factor: Of all of the guys on Penn State, Myles Dread could be the one who actually has a good year. A borderline top 150 recruit out of high school, he averaged 8.3 points per game and he will have to try and fill in the role of Josh Reaves. However, he isn't a great shooter and needs to improve from deep to become a better player and go to scorer for the guard group. I have a little bit of hope that he can do the things he needs to and turn into a quality Big Ten guard, which would be huge for a team that desperately needs it. However, I think it's far more likely that he ends up scoring more, but struggles with efficiency and doesn't look all that good on the whole this year.
Final Verdict: Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins is a really nice duo up front, and the front court will be a strength. It might be their only strength. I don't like a single guard on their roster, and the loss of Josh Reaves will hurt the defense quite a lot. They have a lot of guys who could maybe be good in the back court, and if one of them hits, then maybe they play their way onto the bubble, but I do not see it with this team.
The Basement
13. Nebraska
Starting 5: Cameron Mack, Dachon Burke, Haanif Cheatham, Shamiel Stevenson/Thorir Thorbjarnason, Matej Kavas
Why They'll Be Good: Their backcourt is actually not horrible. If Cam Mack, Jervay Green, Dachon Burke, and Samari Curtis can live up to their billing, then they should be able to score fairly effectively. Mack and Green both come from JuCo where they were very good, and I anticipate both of them having success on this team. They are quick with the ball and good scorers, and they should find success in Fred Hoiberg's system. Burke enters from Robert Morris where he was a big time scorer, and he'll likely be asked to do less in Lincoln, so he could become more efficiency. Curtis has a reputation as a good scorer, and he should be able to contribute as a bucket getter immediately. Transfers Haanif Cheatham and Matej Kavas should contribute as shooters from the jump as well.
Why They Won't: There is absolutely zero size on this team. Like none. Kavas is going to see time at the five because he's 6'8", but he's a stretch four at best. Shamiel Stevenson has more strength and rebounding ability, but barring a waiver being approved, he won't be eligible until the semester break. That leaves them at a significant disadvantage defensively, where they weren't going to be good anyways. Only Cheatham is good on that end, and this team is going to struggle mightily to get stops.
X-Factor: Haanif Cheatham has had an interesting career. He transferred from Marquette, where he was a legitimately good player for the Golden Eagles, to Florida Gulf Coast. Just as it looked like he was going to be the guy for FGCU last year, he got injured, and used his new year of eligibility to transfer to Nebraska. He's my pick to lead the team in scoring given his polished resume to this point already, and his ability to shoot from three. Plus, he's got defensive ability, and the Cornhuskers will likely look much worse without him on the floor this season. Look for him to have a big year for Fred Hoiberg.
Final Verdict: Fred Hoiberg was a good hire, but it will take time for him to establish his system and get his guys into it. The lack of size is going to hurt in a league with some very good bigs, and I don't fully know how the roster fits together. In time, I think Hoiberg will have the Huskers competing, but it won't be this year.
14. Northwestern
Starting 5: Ryan Greer, Anthony Gaines, AJ Turner, Miller Kopp, Pete Nance
Why They'll Be Good: The Wildcats are going to be bad this year. They have some intriguing pieces, but there isn't a whole lot to get excited about. Anthony Gaines and AJ Turner project to be the two leaders of the team on the offensive end, with Turner particularly being very intriguing given his blend of size, shooting, and ball skills. Gaines isn't quite the shooter that Turner is, but he gets to the rim well and is quite a good defender as well. They will need more this season out of healed recruits Miller Kopp and Pete Nance, who were both fairly disappointing as freshmen. Kopp is known as a good shooter, and he'll have to display his shot making skills this year. Meanwhile, Nance, brother of NBA player Larry, is a good athlete who needs to figure out how to properly use his gifts to become a force on both ends. Pat Spencer is potentially intriguing, as the Loyola Maryland lacrosse star has decided to play college hoops for a year. He's a very good athlete that should get minutes in the backcourt. Freshman bigs Robbie Beran and Jared Jones should both factor into the rotation as well.
Why They Won't: Point guard play is a pretty big issue. Spencer, Ryan Greer, and Boo Buie are all inexperienced options and Greer, who was on the court last year, really struggled. I expect turnovers to be a pretty big issue. Inexperience as a whole will have to be something Chris Collins has to deal with. He's really only got two guys who have the capability of performing at Big Ten levels this year, and while multiple guys look like they have bright futures, the results this year could be tough.
X-Factor: I don't know if he really qualifies as an x-factor, but I really like AJ Turner. He's a good shooter and has some point guard-esque skills at 6'7", making him a legitimate weapon for the Wildcats. He needs to become the guy for this team this year, and if he can do that, Northwestern may not be as bad as I think they will be. He's just a fun player to watch, and I think he deserves a lot more publicity than he gets, as despite playing for a team that likely isn't going to great, he might have a really nice year.
Final Verdict: It's not going to be a good year in Evanston. I actually really like Turner, but the rest of the roster is pretty brutal, and I'm not sure they'll even be competitive in some of their games this year. I think the future isn't all doom and gloom, but this year is not going to be one to remember for the Wildcat faithful.
First Team All Big Ten:
G: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
G: Zavier Simpson, Michigan
G: Anthony Cowan, Maryland
F: Kaleb Wesson, Ohio State
F: Jalen Smith, Maryland
Second Team All Big Ten
G: Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
G: Joe Wieskamp, Iowa
F: Xavier Tillman, Michigan State
F: Lamar Stevens, Penn State
F: Jon Teske, Michigan*
Third Best All Big Ten
G: Gabe Kalscheur, Minnesota
G: Geo Baker, Rutgers
G: Rob Phinisee, Indiana
G: D'Mitrik Trice, Wisconsin
F: Luke Garza, Iowa
Big Ten All Freshman Team
G: DJ Carton, Ohio State
G: Tre Williams, Minnesota
G: Rocket Watts, Michigan State
F: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana
F: EJ Liddell, Ohio State
Big Ten Player of the Year: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
Big Ten Freshman of the Year: DJ Carton, Ohio State
*These teams assume Joshua Langford is out for the year. If he is healthy within a reasonable time frame, he'd be on the second team, Jon Teske would slide down to the third team, and Rob Phinisee would drop out of the teams.
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