After a long summer, I have returned to the college basketball blogging game. I apologize for taking such a long time off, but I've been keeping up with everything in the world of college basketball, and I'm excited to get back into the swing of things. We start off my preseason coverage with a league that is near and dear to my heart, the ACC. For those of you who don't know, I'm a Syracuse student and fan, but I try not to let my bias get in the way of my journalistic integrity. I'll have tiered rankings, but the order I give is the order I expect them to finish. As for the ACC itself, after years of dominance, this season figures to be a bit of a down one, with the bottom half of the conference being very weak. As always, let me know your thoughts on the conference and where you may disagree with my predictions on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and be sure to check back throughout the next few days for my previews for the other conferences.
The Contenders
1. Duke
Starting 5: Tre Jones, Cassius Stanley, Wendell Moore, Matthew Hurt, Vernon Carey
Why They'll Be Good: The Blue Devils have the tall task of replacing Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish, all top 10 picks in the NBA draft last June. However, Coach K has brought in another talented crop of youngsters to fill their admittedly large shoes. They have two top 12 players and two more four star recruits ranked in the top 40. The two five stars are forwards Vernon Carey, sixth overall, and Matthew Hurt, ranked twelfth, were both McDonald's All Americans and will be a formidable duo. Both have shooting ability and crash the glass hard, and Javin DeLaurier joins them as a holdover who should be a solid third big who is more known for his defense. The other members of the freshman class are Wendell Moore, an athletic wing who will remind Duke fans of Justice Winslow, and Cassius Stanley, a former UCLA commit who knows how to get buckets at all three levels. Rounding out the starting lineup is point guard Tre Jones, a five star recruit last year who returns for his sophomore season. He'll set the tone defensively, where Duke should be excellent again. Between Jones harassing the opponent's lead ball handler at the point of attack, Moore's long and athletic frame causing problems on the wing, and the three bigs locking down the boards, expect this to be one of the top defenses nationally. Stanley should also be able to contribute on that end thanks to his good athleticism. Furthermore, this defense should lead nicely into the transition game, where Duke will be terrifying. As mentioned, Stanley and Moore are both great athletes who should attack the rim ferociously and Jones will be more than happy to feed them. Carey runs the floor well for someone of his size, and should find early offense opportunities, and I imagine Matthew Hurt will be getting some late arriving looks from three. All in all, the talent on this team is immense, and they have the potential to win the ACC.
Why They Won't: There's a lot of new players here, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Duke had a bunch of new pieces last season and were arguably the best team in the sport. However, the fit of each player is key, and there are the same questions as last year: can Duke shoot? They should be better in that regard with the additions of Stanley, Carey, and especially Hurt, but it isn't a sure thing. Jones was a nightmare from behind the arc last season, and he needs to take a step forward in that respect if he wants to play at the next level. Jack White showed promise as a shooter before completely losing his stroke down the stretch, and Joey Baker is basically an unknown, although he was a heralded shooter out of high school. Alex O' Connell figures to be a sharpshooter off the bench, but it's still unclear what else he offers when he's on the floor. The shooting leads to another concern about Duke: their half court offense. Because of the lack of shooting last year, there was 0 space to operate in, and the Blue Devils struggled in slower games played more in the half court. That could be the case this year again. When they can run and let their natural talent and athleticism shine, this team will be scary. But in slower games, it remains to be seen whether or not this group will be able to perform with other top teams. The way these talented pieces fit will be key to a successful season in Durham.
X-Factor: Tre Jones and his shooting may be the biggest individual skill that could decide the national championship this year. As mentioned, last year, he was a nightmare for Duke, as teams sagged off him to an extreme degree to stop Zion and RJ, with UCF going as far as to have Tacko Fall guard him while standing in the paint. He only made 26.2% of his threes last year, and if he can get that up to even like 32%, it would be huge for Duke. He is a 76% free throw shooter, so there is some hope. Outside of that, he's a great fit for the team. His defensive intensity will set the tone for the Blue Devils, and he's a very willing passer, so he'll have no problem deferring to some of his teammates. He'll be excellent at leading the team in transition, where they should thrive. However, if he can't make shots in the half court, there will be team wide ramifications and it could keep the Blue Devils from fulfilling their potential.
Final Verdict: While the shooting concerns may be real, I'm not worried. They have more shooting than last season, when they often had no real threats from behind the arc on the floor, and they'll have plenty of transition opportunities anyways given the potential for defensive havoc and creating a ton of turnovers. Their ceiling this year is directly tied to Jones, as I detailed, but I think he improves and this new team gels together well, making them the ACC Regular Season Champions in 2020.
2. Louisville
Starting 5: Lamarr Kimble, Samuel Williamson, Dwayne Sutton, Jordan Nwora, Steven Enoch
Why They'll Be Good: The Cardinals exceeded expectations in Chris Mack's first season on the sideline, and with a lot of key members returning, they should be even better in year two. They will be led by Jordan Nwora, who experienced a breakout season last year and could be even better this season. The versatile forward can score inside and out, and is a good defender as well. He could average around 20 PPG this season, and he'll be the focal point for the Cardinals. Also on the front line are Dwayne Sutton, a Swiss army knife type who can guard multiple positions and contribute in a variety of ways offensively, and centers Stephen Enoch and Malik Williams. Both are solid outside shooters, with Williams being more of a defensive stalwart and Enoch being a better post scorer. Also returning are backcourt players Ryan McMahon and Darius Perry. McMahon will provide floor spacing while Perry will compete for the starting point guard role. However, what elevates this team's ceiling is their newcomers. St. Joe's grad transfer Lamarr Kimble is a talented player who can score from all three levels and has the ability to create for others as well. However, he's battled injury issues for the past few years, and he'll need to stay healthy. They also have the twelfth ranked recruiting class, led by five star Samuel Williamson. He should fit right in on both side of the ball, with his size allowing him to fit into Chris Mack's switching scheme defensively and his athleticism and shooting stroke should allow him to contribute on offense. Aidan Igiehon is known as the Irish Hulk, with tons of strength on the front line that should be a solid third big as a rim runner and defender. David Johnson, Josh Nickleberry, and Jaeyln Withers are all top 150 recruits and should be able to carve out roles as well.
Why They Won't: The most important position in college basketball is point guard, and Louisville has some questions there. Kimble is an immense talent, and he could elevate them to a new level. However, if he gets hit by injuries again, there could be problems. Darius Perry has had turnover issues in his two seasons after being a top 60 recruit out of high school, and it remains unclear if he can play well at this level. David Johnson could also be an option, but he has a shoulder injury that will likely keep him out until conference play. There are also always worries when integrating lots of freshman, although given the amount of returners Louisville has and Mack's coaching ability, I'm not worried about the new blood having trouble fitting in.
X-Factor: While Kimble staying healthy may be the most important thing for Louisville this season, you can predict injuries so I'll assume full health for the purpose of this article. To me, that makes Samuel Williamson the biggest x-factor on the team. A five star wing out of Texas, Williamson has the potential to take the Cardinals to new heights. The McDonald's All American projects to start at the two for Louisville, and he has the potential to be a force. At 6'6", he's got good size for the position, and that should help him defensively right away. Chris Mack likes to switch defensively, and Williamson should fit right into that system. He's also very good in the open floor thanks to his fluid athleticism, so expect him and Jordan Nwora to be converting steals into buckets often. Offensively, he's a good shooter, although he's better in the mid range than from three, and he'll have to expand his range to be a true impact player. Ultimately, there is a lot of pressure on the freshman's shoulders from day 1. If he can't live up to his billing and be a key cog in this system, Mack will be forced to turn more to Ryan McMahon, Darius Perry, and fellow freshman Josh Nickleberry, who each have their own problems on both sides of the ball. However, if Williamson performs like I think he will, expect the Cardinals to be a Final Four contender.
Final Verdict: Louisville has a great mix of returning talent, talented newcomers, and a good coach on the sidelines. Jordan Nwora should be an All American this season, and the players surrounding him, while perhaps not stars in their own right, will fill their roles and do so very well. Lamarr Kimble will need to stay healthy, but if he can, look for Louisville to compete for the ACC title.
3. North Carolina
Starting 5: Cole Anthony, Christian Keeling, Leaky Black, Armando Bacot, Garrison Brooks
Why They'll Be Good: North Carolina is one of the most successful programs in college basketball history, and despite losing Coby White, Nassir Little, Cameron Johnson, Kenny Williams, and Luke Maye, basically a full starting five of talented players, they should be good once again. They have some Chapel Hill veterans returning, with Garrison Brooks and Sterling Manley leading the line, along with Andrew Platek, Brandon Robinson, and sophomore Leaky Black, who could be a breakout player this season. They all know the system Roy Williams wants to run, and they'll be influential in teaching the new guys the offense. Speaking of the new guys, the Tar Heels welcome a bunch of talented newcomers. They brought in two grad transfers in Christian Keeling from Charleston Southern and Justin Pierce from William & Mary. Both will provide shooting ability on the wings, and they should compliment the real star of this team, freshman point guard Cole Anthony. The top 5 recruit and potential #1 pick in next June's draft should be a day 1 star for North Carolina. He's a dynamic scorer who can get past his man with ease and loves to attack the rim. Additionally, Anthony fits the up tempo style Roy Williams looks to employ in transition, and he should have this team running up and down and getting easy buckets in early offense. He headlines the #9 recruiting class in the country, which also has fellow 5 star Armando Bacot. I expect him to be a big part of the forward rotation right away, and he'll fit right in with the way North Carolina likes to use bigs by posting them up and crashing the glass hard. Additionally, Anthony Harris is a four star point guard who should see minutes off the bench, and while he won't be a star this year, he'll be a good asset for years to come.
Why They Won't: No matter how good Cole Anthony is, there are a lot of new pieces coming in, which is always difficult to manage. They could end up starting four players who weren't with the program last season, and only three of the players on the roster played more than 10 MPG for the Tar Heels last year. While I'm not worried about how Anthony translates, there are legitimate questions about the rest of the newcomers. Keeling and Pierce are coming from lower levels where they were often on of the two or three best players on the floor, which will certainly not be the case in the ACC. Plus, Pierce's shooting stroke abandoned him last year, and he'll need to have that to open out the floor for Anthony to thrive. I'm not too worried about Bacot, but he may have to guard on the perimeter at times, and it remains to be seen whether or not he can do that. Anthony is going to be a star, but it remains to be seen whether or not there will be a Robin to his Batman on this roster.
X-Factor: Christian Keeling was excellent at Charleston Southern. He averaged 17.9 points per game over his three years with the Buccaneers, and improved throughout his time there as a rebounder and creator for others. He is a dynamic shooter, making 38% of his shots last year, which is excellent given he took 6.3 per game. He is also quick and can get to the rim pretty well, and his athleticism makes him alright defensively. However, it's interesting to see how he translates to this team. There is a big difference between the Big South and the ACC, so playing against more athletic and overall better players will be a challenge for him. Additionally, he's had the ball in his hands a lot, which won't be the case next to Anthony this season. His shift from ball dominant scorer to a more off ball threat will be interesting. If he buys into being a spot up shooter who is tasked with secondary creation and running the offense whenever Anthony is off the floor, he could be very, very useful. However, if he presses looking for his own shot more than fitting into the offensive scheme, he could derail the entire team and be more of a negative than a positive for the Tar Heels.
Final Verdict: At the end of the day, it's North Carolina coached by Roy Williams. They might get off to a rocky start as they try to figure out their best five and how the rotation will work, but by the time ACC play rolls around, I expect this team to be ready to compete at the highest level. Cole Anthony is going to be a star, and the rest of the team compliments him well. There might be small concerns defensively, but this will be a team competing for the ACC title throughout the season.
The Tournament Teams
4. Florida State
Starting 5: Trent Forest, MJ Walker, Patrick Williams, RaiQuan Gray, Dominik Olejniczak
Why They'll Be Good: Leonard Hamilton has been excellent at Florida State, and he knows exactly what he wants from his teams. He likes long, athletic players who can play well defensively and run in transition, using their depth as a strength. This team will be more of the same. They lost some really key pieces in Terrance Mann, Mfiondu Kabengele, Phil Cofer, and Christ Koumadje, which lowers their ceiling, but they still have a bunch of athletes and they should be a very good defensive unit. They have a number of returning players, and the backcourt of Trent Forest and MJ Walker are primed for breakouts this year. Forest is the best returning player, starting nearly every game at the point, and providing good two way value. While he isn't a threat from deep, he is very good at attacking the rim and defensively he causes havoc with his length and ability to create steals. Walker is a former five star recruit who has failed to live up to expectation, but will need to step up and be a key contributor this year. Also returning are RaiQuan Gray and Devin Vassell, who can both stretch the floor and should be solid contributors. They also welcome some talented newcomers this season. Their recruiting class ranks fourth in the ACC and top 20 in the country, and is headlined by five star Patrick Williams. He's, shockingly, a long and athletic wing who will fit right in on both sides of the ball and should contribute immediately. JuCo recruit RayQuan Evans could be a good player in the backcourt. In the JuCo ranks, he was a big time scorer with good strength and ability defensively, and if he can bring that to FSU, he'll be good in the rotation. Nathaniel Jack is another junior college import who is a knockdown shooter who should be able to carve out a role with his shooting. Malik Osborne, a Rick transfer, becomes eligible as an athletic four, and their front court is completely remade with Ole Miss transfer Dominik Olejniczak and top 100 recruit Balsa Koprivica. Those two, along with raw 7'4" freshman Nathan McLeod, give them three seven footers, so rebounding shouldn't be an issue. The Seminoles are exactly what Leonard Hamilton wants them to be, which should be scary for the rest of the ACC.
Why They Won't: The recipe for stopping Florida State has been to get them to play in the half court, and that should be the case once again this year. Their offensive production is largely predicated on getting their excellent athletes out into transition and letting them thrive by attacking the rim quickly. When opposing teams can get men back and make them play in the half court, they have struggled. Shooting has often been a question with this team, and I expect that to continue. While Devin Vassell and Nathaniel Jack can make shots from behind the arc, that probably isn't enough to make them a better half court team. Trent Forrest and MJ Walker have struggled to make threes, which isn't what you want from your backcourt. At least one of them has to prove they can make threes to open up the offense in half court settings, and I'm skeptical they can do that.
X-Factor: MJ Walker was a five star recruit coming out of high school, and he hasn't been able to match that thus far in Tallahassee. He's only averaged 7.3 points per game in his college career, and he's been suspect all around offensively. Like most of the Seminoles, he's a good athlete and a pretty good defender, but he needs to step up offensively this season. His jumper needs to improve and he has to find a way to create his own shot in the half court consistently this year. He's had multiple flashes throughout his college career, and when he's making jumpers he looks very dangerous, but the consistency and ball security will need to improve. People keep waiting for the breakout, and it will need to come this year. There will be plenty of opportunities for him to have his coming out party give the players lost and minutes he will likely see. If he's a consistent scoring threat, then Florida State becomes a much better team. If he's still the same inconsistent scorer, then they will struggle to score in some games. He will have the opportunity, the question is can he capitalize?
Final Verdict: At the end of the day, this team is built on their defensive prowess. While they could struggle in half court settings, their defense will be excellent and give them transition opportunities. I really like Trent Forrest and despite his shooting woes, I think he'll be very good this season. This team will be an elite defensive unit and while they could have some ups and downs offensively, they're locked in as a tournament team.
5. Virginia
Starting 5: Kihei Clark, Casey Morsell, Braxton Key, Mamadi Diakite, Jay Huff
Why They'll Be Good: Virginia are the regning national champions, but they will look much different this year. Gone are Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, and DeAndre Hunter (and Jack Salt!), the key contributors on that team. Tony Bennett is one of the best coaches in the country, and his offensive and defensive schemes will keep this team among the best in the ACC. The pack line defense has led them to top 10 defensive finishes in KenPom every year since 2012 except for 2013, including three top 3 finishes in the past four years. The offense is slow and deliberate, and will look for high efficiency shots no matter what. They have some members from last year's team back in Kihei Clark, Braxton Key, Mamadi Diakite, and Jay Huff, along with some other role players. Clark and Diakite are best known for this shot against Purdue, but they were steady contributors last year. Clark is going to be a steady hand at the point guard position and run the offense well. Diakite really improved down the stretch last year offensively, and if he can continue that development into an All ACC type player, that makes them a very dangerous team. Key is an Alabama transfer who didn't look fully comfortable in the Virginia system last year, but a second year could make him a much better player on the offensive end. He has the potential to be an all around player on the offensive end. Huff is a 7 footer who can stretch the floor, and he has massive potential to be a star if he can put everything together in more minutes. Additionally, look for some new recruits to figure into the mix. Four star guard Casey Morsell should be one of the leading scorers right away as a bucket getter who is physical, and he should be able to be a two way contributor right away. They also welcome Justin McCoy, a late riser on the wing and big Francisco Caffaro, who redshirted last year but looked good for Argentina in the FIBA U-19 World Cup. Finally, JuCo recruit Tomas Woldetensae is a knockdown shooter who should be able to find a role as a sharpshooter.
Why They Won't: As I mentioned, this is a team that lost its three best players. There will undoubtably be some regression from their all time season last year. Their loss will be most felt on the offense end, where they were all bucket getters and they will need to figure out how to replace them. One of the biggest problems I think they will encounter may actually be Bennett's offensive scheme. So much of that is based on feel, and with a lot of newcomers and unproven players at the moment, it remains to be seen how they fit into this scheme. Guy and Jerome were elite at finding space based on how defenses reacted to their movement, and I don't think this team will have those guys yet. There is also the question of who will actually get buckets for the Wahoos this year. Clark wasn't isn't really an initiator offensively, and Diakite showed flashes last year, but will need to prove it over a full season. Braxton Key was good at Alabama, but looked a little lost last year. The rest of the roster is unproven, and this team will need multiple players to step up and be able to consistently get buckets.
X-Factor: Someone needs to step up and replace the scoring of Guy, Jerome, and Hunter, and Casey Morsell may be that man. The four star freshman guard is a highly touted scorer from all three levels. He is also a solid defender given his strong frame, and he plays hard on that end. However, he will need to immediately contribute for this team to reach its peak. There have been some concerns about his shooting from distance, and he will need to immediately adapt to the Tony Bennett system and adapt well. He may actually end up being the number one option for Virginia given how the rest of the roster is constructed, and he could end up being the focus of defenses on the wing. He's going to need to be a double digit scorer out of the gate for the Cavaliers to be good this season, and it remains to be seen if he can do so.
Final Verdict: At the end of the day, despite the offensive concerns, this will be an elite defensive unit. Like top 10 in the country elite. The pieces are there for them to be really, really good on that end and win games that way. There will be games where the offense just can't get buckets and they lose, but the defense will have them at least competitive in every game they play, and guide them to another tournament berth.
6. North Carolina State
Starting 5: Markell Johnson, Braxton Beverly, CJ Bryce, Devon Daniels, DJ Funderburk
Why They'll Be Good: Last year, I went all in on the Wolfpack being a Top 20 team last year, and they really disappointed me. After a terrible non-conference schedule, they then disappointed in conference play and missed out on the tournament. However, I love Kevin Keatts as a coach and they style he employs, so I'm betting on them making the tournament this season. They play a high octane, pressing style that leads to a lot of points, and he employs four guards or wings most of the time. They return six of their top eight scorers, and their backcourt will be dynamic. Markell Johnson is an excellent point guard, one of the best in the conference, as he can score from all three levels and also has good vision as a passer. Next to him, Braxton Beverly is a knockdown shooter who is a solid secondary ball handler. Additionally, look for CJ Bryce and Devon Daniels to take steps forward. Both were transfers in their first year eligible in Raleigh last year, and are in line for bigger roles this season. Bryce is a good wing scorer, especially behind the arc, while Daniels is a great defender who thrives while attacking the rim. DJ Funderburk has the keys to the front court this year, and he could take a step forward offensively. Even if he doesn't, he's a good two way player that will take what is given to him on both ends. Off the bench, Blake Harris will fill in in the back court while Jericole Hellems should see plenty of minutes on the wing. Dereon Seabron is the gem of the recruiting class who fits with the guard heavy rotation and he should find minutes. Pat Andree also comes in as a stretch four from Lehigh, and while he doesn't fit the typical mold of the Wolfpack player, he should find minutes as a floor spacer.
Why They Won't: The pressing style is a lot of fun to watch, and when it works, it's really effective. However, there's a lot of times it doesn't work and they get shredded for easy buckets. Once the press is broken, North Carolina State often looks lost and their half court defense leaves a lot of be desired, especially because of the lack of size at the four. Also, the interior looks like it could be an area of concern. Funderburk is the only player who has proven himself at the ACC level, and he has some injury history. Behind him is redshirt freshman Manny Bates, who has potential but was hurt and forced to redshirt. He could provide some more rim protection and spell Funderburk. The only other option is UMKC transfer Danny Dixon, and I wouldn't be too excited to see a guy who scored 7.5 points a game in the Summit League manning the center position in the ACC at any point.
X-Factor: There are plenty of breakout candidates on the roster, but Devon Daniels might be the most obvious and perhaps the one with the greatest chance of achieving his breakout. He showed plenty of promise in his freshman year at Utah before transferring to North Carolina State, and his numbers took a hit. He was much more inefficient and seemingly lost his jump shot last season. He should have a bigger role with Torin Dorn gone this year, and his defensive prowess will guarantee him minutes. He'll need to regain that Utah form this season as he will be relied upon for a decent amount of shot creation, both for himself and even others. If he's on, look for him to be a good wing scoring option who is also a lockdown defender. If not, North Carolina State could struggle to find good scoring options in the half court and move more to the bubble than a tournament lock.
Final Verdict: I'm a sucker for this team. The style they play is so much fun to watch and I really enjoy it, so that makes me a bit biased. Still, they have a star point guard and multiple guys capable of going off at any time beside him, so I think their offense will be very good. If they can figure out the pressing system and make it work more consistently, watch out. I imagine it still has its up and downs, which drags them to more of a 7/8 seed, but still comfortably in the tournament.
The Bubble Teams
7. Syracuse
Starting 5: Jalen Carey, Buddy Boeheim, Elijah Hughes, Quincy Guerrier, Borouma Sidibe
Why They'll Be Good: It was an up and down season for the Orange, peaking with a win at Cameron Indoor over Duke, people forget that happened, and nadiring during a home loss to Old Dominion. Elijah Hughes returns and looks primed to step into a bigger role this year, as he is a good athlete and shooter. Syracuse should be a better shooting team this year on the whole actually, with Buddy Boeheim and Marek Dolezaj assuming bigger roles, and Joe Girard, Brycen Goodine, and Quincy Guerrier joining the fold. With Jalen Carey at the point, there is hope that there are less ball stoppers on the floor like Frank Howard and Tyus Battle had a tendency to be, and the offense looks good for the first time in a while. They also still have the patented 2-3 zone defensively, which always causes problems, and there is plenty of length from players like Hughes, Guerrier, and potential breakout candidate Robert Braswell to make it effective once again. The freshman class should actually be quite good, with Guerrier, a strong four man with decent touch from the outside, looking like an immediate starter, Brycen Goodine drawing rave reviews for his athleticism and shooting ability as a rotation wing, Joe Girard, New York state's all time leading scorer and a deadeye from deep, and Jesse Edwards and Jon Bol Ajak, two bigs who should find minutes along Bourouma Sidibe on the interior.
Why They Won't: There are a whole lot of questions surrounding the Orange this year. Can they replace Battle, Howard, and Oshae Brissett's production offensively? Even with all of their warts, they knew how to get buckets and they will have to be replaced by someone. Elijah Hughes was a good secondary scorer and spot up option, but he will need to figure out how to become the leading scoring option. There is also no clear second banana here. Buddy Boeheim is a good shooter, but doesn't do much else, Carey didn't play much last year and was mostly not great, the front court doesn't have a ton of scoring options, and there are unproven freshmen as well. Additionally, while the offense could be better, it may also not be, like it hasn't been since 2014. They also have a huge hole at the point. As mentioned, Carey wasn't great last year and he'll need to capitalize on the flashes he showed and his high school ranking. Girard may also find time at the point, but he played against pretty poor high school competition so everything outside of his shooting may struggle to translate. They also have Howard Washington, a sophomore who has had injury issues and suffered a stroke last year, and he's solid if unspectacular when he's on the floor.
X-Factor: Following up that last thought, Jalen Carey is going to be a huge part of this team. He was a four star coming out of Immaculate Conception in Montclair, fun fact I played against him in high school, and he was quite good there, especially against James Caldwell High School. Now, we weren't an elite program by any means, we won three games the year when we played him, and he scored nearly 30 points both times. Anyways, his first year at Syracuse was far less exciting than that. He only appeared in 25 games, and was mostly ineffective, save a 40 point two game stretch at MSG against UConn and Oregon. At his best, he's quick with the ball in his hands and can get to the rim with ease, along with having a solid mid range game that can occasionally hit from deep. He is also good at creating turnovers, although his biggest issue was turnovers on the other end, along with struggling with inefficiency and shooting from deep. He needs to clean up his turnover issues and hopefully see more pick and roll action this year, but there's potential for him to run this offense well. However, if he doesn't, it could be very tough for this team to look competent on the offensive end.
Final Verdict: Am I biased? Maybe. Almost certainly actually. And it's probably affecting my rankings just a little bit. But you know what? I don't care. If you don't like it, go somewhere else. I also don't think saying Syracuse will be a bubble team is that big of a stretch, and I really do believe they will be a tournament team. They need a few breakouts and for the offense to come together like I think it will, but I'm going to say they happen and the zone continues to be effective, putting them on the right side of the bubble this season.
8. Miami
Starting 5: Chris Lykes, Dejan Vasiljevic, Kameron McGusty, Keith Stone, Sam Waardenburg
Why They'll Be Good: After having little to no depth last year, Miami has reinforcements coming in to help them out. Transfers Kameron McGusty and Keith Stone are eligible, while freshman Harlond Beverly, Isaiah Wong, and Anthony Walker should find minutes in the rotation as well. McGusty was very good at Oklahoma before taking a backseat to Trae Young as a sophomore and transferring, but he's a good shooter, who along with Dejan Vasiljevic, should space the floor nicely for dynamo point guard Chris Lykes. Stone comes over from Florida, where while he was plagued by injuries, but when he is on the court, is a more than serviceable shooter and solid rebounder that should see minute at both the four and five. Beverley and Wong will be good bench options, and Beverley especially could see a big role. He's a freak athlete and capable scorer at all three levels, which makes him an ideal sixth man. Wong isn't as athletic, but he can score and should find minutes as well. Walker isn't the most ready, but he's a solid rebound who should carve out a role. Lykes will be the star of the show however, as the 5'7" point guard is so much fun to watch. He's a good shooter as well as lightning quick with the ball, and with more shooters on the floor, he should have more space to attack the rim. His pick and roll ability is excellent, meaning the offense should be very good for Jim Larranaga's bunch this year.
Why They Won't: Unfortunately, the defense projects to be not so great. Lykes is a below average defender because of his size alone, and Vasiljevic struggles on that end as well. McGusty and Stone should help things, but this team won't be getting to many stops. In addition, the front court is pretty weak. Stone is a good player, but there are a whole lot of questions should he get injured again, or even if he doesn't. With Stone projected to start at the four, that means either Sam Waardenburg or Deng Gak will be starting at center. Waardenberg is a fine player, but he's better served as a bench option. Gak, meanwhile, has had his own injury issues, and is incredibly raw offensively. But what he does do well is jump, and he's a force both on the boards and protecting the rim. One of those two will need to emerge as a consistent option to open up the full potential of this team.
X-Factor: The highest ranked incoming recruit for the Canes, Harlond Beverly has the potential to be a difference maker. He's a talented offensive player, blending his athleticism and scoring ability from all three levels to make him very tough to guard. He's also a solid ball handler, and knows how to work in the pick and roll, and will likely be relied upon to run the point when Chris Lykes is out of the game. While this is perhaps the role you'd expect a four star freshman to be playing, it's vital for Miami that he fills it. If he's unable to be a good option off the bench, the rotation will shrink considerably. Fellow freshman Isaiah Wong will be forced to play more minutes and the pressure will once again be on Lykes to take and make some pretty tough shots. Beverly could also open up some four guard looks as his athleticism and size could allow him to guard up a position, although he does still need to add strength. I expect him to be a sixth man who pushes for a starting spot by the time conference play rolls around, but if he isn't Miami could be in trouble.
Final Verdict: For whatever reason, I really like this Miami team. Maybe it's just that Chris Lykes is so easy to root for and so much damn fun to watch, but I like the way the pieces fit together around him. They will probably only go 8 deep most nights, but I like all of those eight and I expect them to find a way to win enough games to make the tournament.
9. Notre Dame
Starting 5: Prentiss Hubb, Temple Gibbs, Rex Pflueger, John Mooney, Juwan Durham
Why They'll Be Good: The Irish are one of the most well coached teams in the country, with Mike Brey initiating one of the most aesthetically pleasing offenses in the nation. He has a lot of talent, with the third ranked recruit class in the ACC last year coming into their sophomore years and some other very talented players surrounding them. The front court may be the strongest area of the team, with John Mooney and Juwan Durham anchoring the Irish. Mooney averaged a double double last year, and knows how to suck in rebounds in addition to having shooting touch from the outside. Meanwhile, Durham is a bit more limited offensively, but averaged 2.3 blocks a game and together the two compliment each other really well. Also look for Nate Laszewski, a stretch four and former four star prospect, to breakout this season after a tough freshman campaign. He's most known for being a knockdown shooter, which would help a Notre Dame team that struggled from deep last season. In the backcourt, Temple Gibbs is the name to know. He was good when surrounded by more talented players in years past, but struggled as the main offensive fulcrum last season, as his percentages tanked with the increased volume. He'll need to more efficient this year, and the return of Rex Pflueger from injury should help. He's a very good shooter and he'll take some of the scoring burden off of Gibbs. Sophomores Prentiss Hubb and Dane Goodwin will also be happy to have Pflueger and fellow sophomore Robby Carmody back from injury, as they got exposed with the lack of depth and really struggled. They were both four star prospects out of high school, and they should settle into slightly smaller roles where they can play to their strengths more.
Why They Won't: Defense has never been the calling card for the Irish, and they won't be a great defensive unit this season. There simply aren't enough plus athletes on the court to guard the Duke's and Florida State's of the world. Durham is really the only plus defender on the roster, and some guys, like Dane Goodwin, are outright negatives on that end. There's also the fact that this team wasn't all that good last year. They were 3-15 in the ACC and have largely the same roster. Yes, Pflueger will help and there will be improvement, but too many people are betting on big steps forward from the sophomores to be who quite simply weren't very effective last season. Yes, they were highly regarded out of high school and yes, Mike Brey is a great coach, but expecting all four of the notably guys to be significantly better in Year 2 seems like a stretch to say the least. They also struggled from three, and while I do believe that improves a lot this year, it is still worth mentioning.
X-Factor: Prentiss Hubb was perhaps the biggest reason the Irish struggled to shoot it from deep. The four star recruit was pretty bad offensively as a freshman, and made just 26% of his threes on 5 attempts a game. His 2:1 assists to turnover rating was pretty solid, but quite often it seemed like he was being dared to shoot late in the shot clock, and didn't really know what to do. He needs to improve from deep, or it will be hard for Mike Brey to keep him on the floor with the additional options this season. Sliding Gibbs to the point and letting Dane Goodwin or Robby Carmody man the two is a fairly easy adjustment, and it makes the shooting a lot better. Hubb offers other things to the team, but he needs to make strides as a scorer or he could find himself struggling to find minutes.
Final Verdict: I've seen Notre Dame as high as sixth in some places, and while I like the roster, I'm nowhere near that high on them. Improvement with health and experience is expected, especially with a coach as good as Brey, but that's a pretty big jump for a team that finished last in the conference last year. I think for them to reach those heights, everyone needs to make a jump, and I just don't see that happening. The defense doesn't project to be that good, and I think Hubb's struggles continue and some players don't develop as rapidly as expected, leaving the Irish faithful sweating on Selection Sunday. I think they ultimately end up in the field, but it won't be easy.
10. Pittsburgh
Starting 5: Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowans, Gerald Drumgoole, Au'Diese Toney, Terrell Brown
Why They'll Be Good: It flew under the radar because the Panthers weren't a good unit on the whole last season, but the freshman backcourt duo of Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowans was very good last season. Johnson averaged 15.5 points, 4.5 assists, and 4 rebounds last season, and could be in for an even bigger sophomore campaign. He's also a good shooter, and was excellent operating in the pick and roll that Jeff Capel likes to run. McGowans is also a good pick and roll ballhandler, although he likes to get downhill and attack the rim more. He's also a very good defender, and these two give Pitt a nice core to build around. Fellow sophomore Au'Diese Toney is a nice piece on the wing, as he's an athletic shalsher who is also good defensively, and freshmen Gerald Drumgoole and Julian Champagnie should find minutes on the wing as well. Drumgoole projects to be a nice 3 and D option on the wing, while Champagnie prefers to attack the rim. There is a lot of potential for the guards and wings to be a really nice group. Up front, there are some solid, if unspectacular, players who will do the dirty work. Returning center Terrell Brown is a good shot blocker and rebounder, and UNC Greensboro transfer Eric Hamilton can also clear the boards. Freshman Karim Coulibaly has experience with the Mali U-19 team at the FIBA World Cup this summer, and he looks to be a good offensive player, although he's still a bit raw.
Why They Won't: The front line isn't exactly awe inspiring, although offensively they aren't asked to do a lot more than be pick and roll dive men. The main concern with Pitt, outside of inexperience, is the lack of shooting. They struggled from three last year, and their best shooter, Jared Wilson-Frame, has graduated. McGowans needs to improve from deep and Drumgoole needs to make shots from the jump to make this team solid offensively. Johnson and McGowans also both need to clean up their turnover issues, and there is a concern with Johnson that he was putting up empty stats on a bad team. However, the lack of shooting is a real worry as it hurts the spacing for Johnson and McGowans to attack, and limits the effectiveness of players like Toney, as everyone expects the drive when he catches the ball on the wing.
X-Factor: With the shooting woes the Panthers possess, Gerald Drumgoole becomes a key piece. He was a good shooter at the AAU and high school level, especially out of the corner, and that will need to translate almost immediately. As things stand, Johnson and JuCo transfer Ryan Murphy are the only real threats from behind the arc on the roster, and if Drumgoole can step in as a shotmaker from deep immediately, that would be huge. It would open up lanes for Johnson and McGowans to attack and really make the offense a lot better. If not, expect the two sophomore guards to force up a lot of contested shots in the paint as teams won't have to worry about anyone else making shots from the outside. Drumgoole is the most likely option to step up as a plus shooter from three, so look for him to be a crucial piece for the Pitt offense this year.
Final Verdict: Xavier Johnson is a guy I love who seriously flew under the national radar as a freshman, and could be an All ACC level performer this year. The shooting is a huge concern, as I've mentioned, but the press Jeff Capel employs should be able to get some easy transition looks. I think the improvement will be evident with the eye test, but it won't fully show up in the standings, as Pitt misses out on the Big Dance.
The NIT Hopefuls
11. Georgia Tech
Starting 5: Jose Alvarado, Michael DeVoe, Khalid Moore, Jordan Usher, James Banks
Why They'll Be Good: The Yellow Jackets have a pretty good looking starting five heading into the year. They'll make their money on the defensive end, where the backcourt duo of Jose Alvarado and Michael DeVoe create problems for opposing ball handlers by pestering them and getting into passing lanes, while James Banks is a prolific shot blocker on the back line. Add in Khalid Moore and Jordan Usher as athletic wings and Moses Wright as an option for defending fours, and the defense shouldn't be a problem. The offense could also take a step forward with the addition of Usher and VMI transfer Bubba Parham. Usher was highly regarded out of high school and is an excellent athlete and could be a major contributor as a small ball four. Meanwhile, Parham is a bucket getter, pure and simple, and his shooting will be key. Moore could also be in line for a breakout after his freshman year, as could DeVoe, with both needing to improve as shooters. However, Alvarado and Banks are the lifeblood of the team on both ends. Alvarado is a pretty good shooter who excels as getting into the paint and dumping the ball off to his bigs for easy buckets. Meanwhile, Banks is a force in the post, and has some ability in the high post, where he has good vision.
Why They Won't: The one thing we know for certain is that this team will not be dancing at the end of the year. The Yellow Jackets were hit with a postseason ban for recruitment violations. I think that will impact their performance, as they have nothing to really play for at the end of the year. Even if that weren't the case, Josh Pastner's offense has been atrocious the past few years. While there is optimism it will be better this year, it does require numerous improvements to be made by numerous players. Alvarado was wildly inefficient last year, DeVoe was inconsistent, and outside of Banks, the wings and forwards are pretty much zeroes offensively. Usher and Parham should help that some, but the team as a whole doesn't project to be all that good on the offensive end.
X-Factor: Michael DeVoe was one of the best prospects to commit to Georgia Tech since 2012, ranking just outside of the top 50, and showed why down the stretch. He shot 43.8% from three during ACC play and was a good defender. He still needs to improve his ball handling and consistency, but he has all the makings of the future leader of this team. For the coaching staff and fans, DeVoe displaying those traits has to be one of the most important factors heading into this year. If he can take a jump to become a more consistent and complete offensive player, it would set the Yellow Jackets up well for next season, when they will once again be eligible for postseason play. Him taking a step forward would also allow Jose Alvarado to take less shots and hopefully become more efficient, and his floor spacing should give James Banks room to operate. Look for the development of DeVoe throughout this season.
Final Verdict: Unfortunately, what was shaping up to be the best season in Atlanta in a while became overshadowed by their postseason ban. Had they been eligible, they would have ranked higher here, but I think the psychological factor is an important one that likely holds this team back from reaching their ceiling. I also don't like Josh Pastner as a coach, and I think the offense will still be pretty anemic this season. Still the defense and new blood should keep the competitive in most games.
The Basement
12. Clemson
Starting 5: Al-Amir Dawes, Curran Scott, John Newman, Tevin Mack, Aamir Sims
Why They'll Be Good: The Tigers aren't completely without talent. Tevin Mack is a prolific scorer who can get hot at a moments notice, and will fill it up for this team. Curran Scott is a good outside shooter which he displayed at Tulsa last season. Al-Amir Dawes, John Newman, and Chase Hunter all have recruiting pedigree, and each should see plenty of minutes to show what they can do this year. Aamir Sims was actually very good for the Tigers when he was on the floor last year, and he should be a steady presence as the lone returning starter.
Why They Won't: Where to begin? They lose Marcquise Reed, Shelton Mitchell, David Skara, and Elijah Thomas from last year's team, probably their four best players, and they will struggle to replace them. The point guard position will be an adventure, with the freshman Dawes having to handle the duties. It's unclear how he'll be able to handle the pressures of handling the ACC, and he'll have a lot on his plate on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, they have little to no size on the interior. Aamir Sims is the lone front court player that has any meaningful experience, and Trey Jemison and Hunter Tyson are the only other bigs on the roster. Teams will likely be able to abuse them on the inside and they'll struggle to get rebounds. Additionally, their defense will be quite bad, as Sims is the only really good defender on the roster, and he could see a decent amount of time at the five. Things could be real bad in Tiger Town this year.
X-Factor: Coming into last season, expectations surrounding John Newman were high. He was a top 150 recruit that was expected to have a fairly sizable role in the offense. He was stuck behind Shelton Mitchell and Marcquise Reed last year, and when he did get limited minutes, he struggled. This year, he will be relied upon as a starter and will need to live up to his lofty recruiting ranking. When he's on, he can attack the rim well and is a pretty good facilitator for others as well. He needs to improve as a shooter and take steps defensively as well, and it may not always be pretty for the sophomore, but look for him to expand his role and be more productive this season.
Final Verdict: At the end of the day, the bottom of the ACC is going to be real bad. Perhaps Clemson's greatest strength this year will be facing off against the other three teams at the bottom of the conference. Tevin Mack can become a human flamethrower at a moment's notice, and that could be enough to knock off one of the better teams. This season will be more about developing some of the young guys like Newman and Al-Amir Dawes while keeping an eye on the future.
13. Wake Forest
Starting 5: Brandon Childress, Andrien White, Chaundree Brown, Isaiah Mucius, Olivier Sarr
Why They'll Be Good: The Demon Deacons actually some some solid returning talent this year. Brandon Childress and Chaundree Brown will lead the offense, and both are actually fairly solid. Childress is by far the most important player on this roster, as the Deacs look lost without him on the floor on both ends. He wass by far the best shooter on the roster last year, and his poise and experience at the point guard position make him a valuable piece on this roster. Brown had a bit of a breakout last year, and the junior will once again be relied upon to attack the rim with reckless abandon from the wing. There is also hope he can improve his jumper, which would make him an even greater threat. In the front court, Isaiah Mucius and Olivier Sarr are both breakout candidates. Mucius was a top 100 recruit out of high school last year, and while he struggled, a second year in college should be beneficial for him as he is more used to the speed and physicality of the game. Sarr was a popular breakout candidate last year, and the extra year under Danny Manning and added strength should only help him. Sophomore Sharone Wright will also be a key piece off the bench, as he looked good down the stretch as a freshman, and three newcomers should improve the outlook in Winston-Salem. Andrien White is a transfer from Charlotte who is a talented scorer and shooter, and should make the backcourt of Childress and Brown even more potent offensively. Freshmen Jacobi Neath, another guard, and Ismael Mahoud, a wing who could end up as a stretch four, both look like multi-year contributors and should see some time this year as well.
Why They Won't: At the end of the day, this is still Wake Forest under Danny Manning. The Demon Deacons have been quite bad over the past few years, and there is no reason to expect that to change this year. Their front line is incredibly thin, as behind Mucius and Sarr, there is little to be excited about. Fromer walk on Sunday Okeke should see minutes, and there are a few very raw freshman who could contribute as well. Look for Mahoud to see minutes at the four, although he is very skinny and could struggle defensively. Speaking of defense, oh boy was this team bad last year. They were dead last in the ACC in defensive efficiency and opponents shot 66.8% around the basket against them last year, one of the worst marks in the country. It's unlikely they make huge strides on that side of the ball, as there aren't any candidates to be really good on that end. Their offense may be improved, but the defense will continue to hold them back.
X-Factor: Charlotte transfer Andrien White could end up being a pretty big piece for Wake in his lone year of eligibility. He's a very good shooter, making 37.9% of his attempts across three years for the 49ers, and he can also get into the paint and score that way as well. He's a pretty good rebounder for a guard as well, and he could end up being one of the leading scorers on the team. His shooting and scoring abilities should take some of the pressure off of Brandon Childress, and sharing the load could lead to better results for both players, and the team as a whole. However, he did struggle to make shots from behind the arc before transferring, only converting his threes at a 32.3% clip. He'll need to be better if Wake wants to stay out of last place in the conference.
Final Verdict: The Demon Deacons are going to be better than last year, which isn't really saying much. They have really struggled under Danny Manning, and it doesn't look like he is the answer on the sidelines. He looks lost trying to coach this team defensively, and it seems unlikely that they will be able to even get into contention for the postseason in the new few years. The offense should be better this year, and they are probably better than the last two teams in the ACC, but don't expect much out of this team.
14. Virginia Tech
Starting 5: Jalen Cone, Wabissa Bede, PJ Horne, Landers Nolley, Branden Johnson
Why They'll Be Good: The Hokies have a new coach and a largely new roster, so things may look different in Blacksburg. Mike Young comes in from Wofford after Buzz Williams left, and he will have some talent still on the roster. Wabissa Bede is a holdover in the backcourt and Isaiah Wilkins, Landers Nolley, and PJ Horne will man the wing. They also have a four star freshman entering the fold with point guard Jalen Cone, an undersized playmaker. They may actually be solid defensively, with Bede being a solid defender at the point of attack, and they have some solid length on the perimeter that should be alright defensively.
Why They Won't: So most of the roster left with Buzz Williams, and it shows. The depth is really hurting, and they are relying on a ton of young guys who have barely played, Almost all of their depth will come from freshmen who weren't very highly rated, and even the starters were rotation players. Things will be tough offensively, as Mike Young's system will take a little time to take and they don't have the shooters necessary right now. They will also struggle on the interior, with Alabama State transfer Branden Johnson manning the center position, which is worrisome as a 6'8" player. John Ojiako is a 6'10" freshman who should also see minutes, but he is just inside of the top 250, so don't expect a lot from him.
X-Factor: With so few things to look forward to, Jalen Cone may be one of the guys that captures the heart of the Hokie faithful. He's a bit undersized at 5'11", but he's a great scorer who is lightning quick with the ball in his hands. He also plays very hard, which will endear him to the fans. He'll need to continue to work on his jumper and his passing isn't great, but he'll either be a spark plug off the bench or push to start right away, and his scoring ability should help a team that desperately needs it. Look for him to be one of the more underrated freshman in the conference as he likely scores double digit points for Virginia Tech this season.
Final Verdict: Losing their coach and most of their roster will absolutely impact the upcoming season for the Hokies. This will be a multi-year rebuild for Mike Young, and they will struggle to stay afloat in the ACC. Still, they have some guys who have some experience in the conference and I like their coach, so I think they'll be slightly better than the other two teams.
15. Boston College
Starting 5: Derryck Thornton, Jared Hamilton, Jarius Hamilton, Steffon Mitchell, Nik Popovic
Why They'll Be Good: Derryck Thornton played at Duke. Jarius Hamilton was a top 75 recruit. Nik Popovic averaged 14.5 and 7.2 last year. Maybe Jay Heath will be good as a freshman? Chris Herren Jr's dad played in the NBA. That's all I've got.
Why They Won't: Look, while the first section was mostly a joke, the Eagles are going to be real bad. They lose leading scorer and best player Ky Bowman to the NBA, which was going to hurt no matter what. Then they lost Wynston Tabbs, the sophomore who was projected to take on most of his scoring load, to an injury for the entire year. So, things are looking bleak in Boston. Thornton comes from Duke by way of USC, but he's never lived up to his 5 star ranking, and doesn't offer much in terms of scoring. Jarius Hamilton struggled as a freshman, and Jared is a slasher with little to no jump shot. Steffon Mitchell is a fine role player, but he'd be a seventh or eighth man on a good team. I actually like Popovic a lot, he should be fine. Freshmen Jay Heath and Calvin Felder will likely see the court, but it's unclear what they'll offer, and Herren Jr is not very good. If their offensive worries weren't enough, they also stink defensively. They could turn to zone, which was pretty effective in small samples last year, but at the end of the day, the scoring issues are very apparent and this team will struggle.
X-Factor: Jarius Hamilton came into Chesnut Hill as the highest ranked recruit in BC history, but he was outshined by fellow freshman Wynston Tabbs through last season. He had his moments, but consistency was a problem, and too often he struggled. He had shooting and turnover woes throughout his freshman year, and looked overwhelmed more than once. He will likely be on the court quite a lot this year, and the hope around Boston College is that he can take strides in that time. He needs to use his physicality more and attack the basket, and hopefully his jumper continues to develop as well. Defensive strides would also be welcome, and the zone would certainly help with that. If he can have a bit of a breakout year, it would make the future look much better for the Eagles.
Final Verdict: I just don't know how this team scores outside of Popovic, and I'm not sold on any of the other players on the roster. I don't think Jim Christian makes it through the season, and things are going to be bleak in Chesnut Hill this season. The lack of scoring and defensive struggles doom the Eagles to last place in the ACC.
First Team All ACC
G: Cole Anthony, North Carolina
G: Trent Forest, Florida State
G: Markell Johnson, North Carolina State
F: Jordan Nwora, Louisville
F: Vernon Carey, Duke
Second Team All ACC
G: Chris Lykes, Miami
G: Xavier Johnson, Pittsburgh
G: Tre Jones, Duke
F: Elijah Hughes, Syracuse
F: Mamadi Diakite, Virginia
Third Team All ACC
G: Tevin Mack, Clemson
G: Samuel Williamson, Louisville
F: Braxton Key, Virginia
F: John Mooney, Notre Dame
F: Garrison Brooks, North Carolina
All ACC Freshman Team
G: Cole Anthony, UNC
G: Samuel Williamson, Louisville
G: Casey Morsell, Virginia
F: Vernon Carey, Duke
F: Matthew Hurt, Duke
ACC Player of the Year: Jordan Nwora, PF, Louisville
ACC Newcomer of the Year: Cole Anthony, PG, North Carolina
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