Big 12 Preview

The Big 12 is always one of the best leagues in college basketball. With just ten teams, it usually has top to bottom quality that leads to any team being capable of beating any other on any given night. Last season, Kansas was dethroned at the top of the league, not winning a share of the title for the first time in 14 years, and Texas Tech made a run to the finals of the NCAA Tournament. Both teams will look very different this year, and there are a few other teams sneaking up into contention, so it should once again be a very fun year in the conference.

The Contenders

1. Kansas

Starting 5: Devon Dotson, Isaiah Moss, Ochai Agbaji, Silvio De Sousa, Udoka Azubuike

Why They'll Be Good: The Jayhawks were a very young team last year, and they have almost their entire core returning. One man who was not on the court very much last year was senior center Udoka Azubuike, who battled injuries for much of the year. When he's on the court, Kansas is a different team. He's dominant on the low block, with excellent footwork and great touch around the basket. He's also a good passer, which makes double teaming him very difficult, as he is great at finding the open man when the opposing team wants to force the ball out of his hands. Bill Self will also be returning to his two big system this year, with Silvio De Sousa and David McCormack lining up next to Azubuike. Expect them to be the beneficiaries of many open looks when Azubiike draws double, be it off of a pass or an open weak side rebound. On the perimeter, point guard Devon Dotson looks to build off of a strong freshman year. One of the bright spots last year, the lightning quick point guard can get his own bucket or find an open teammate when attacking the rim, and he's also a shooting threat. Ochai Agbaji was redshirting last season, but when Bill Self decided he needed to play, he looked very good down the stretch, and could be even better in a full season. He's an explosive athlete and a pretty good shooter as well, making him tough to guard offensively. They also welcome in Iowa grad transfer Isaiah Moss, four star recruits Jalen Wilson and Tristian Enaruna, and three star Christian Braun. Each should contribute to this team, with Moss, Wilson, and Braun providing shooting, while Enaruna provides a more wing based four option. The shooting is a huge addition, as The Jayhawks struggled from deep last season, but that shouldn't be the case this year. They'll also be good defensively. Azubuike is obviously a monster given his gargantuan size, and they should own the glass as a team. Junior wing Marcus Garrett is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country and will often draw the opposing team's best player. Dotson is a pesky point of attack defender, and Moss, Agbaji, Wilson, and Enaruna provide some good athleticism and switchability defensively.

Why They Won't: There are some real concerns about the two big system Bill Self likes to run. While it has been very effective for Kansas is year's past, the modern game may have passed it by. The Jayhawks have been playing with four out, one in the past few years, mostly by necessity, but it has been very effective. Azubuike has thrived in that system, as teams have been reluctant to double and leave a shooter open, but they then have to deal with the consequences of Doke dominating their center. Adding De Sousa or McCormack into the paint area just brings another defender to Doke and makes it harder for him to be effective. The effect of this system defensively also has to be considered. De Sousa and McCormack will have to do some guarding on the perimeter, and it remains to be seen whether or not these two are up to the challenge of taking on quicker players. Doke has struggled with injuries in the past, and if he goes down again, it would be pretty devastating given his all around impact. This team would still be very good, but it's ceiling would be lower. Kansas also had shooting issues last year, and those haven't fully disappeared. Garrett is a non-shooter, and Agbaji was inconsistent from behind the arc. Moss and Wilson should definitely help in that area, but there could be lineups with very little floor spacing. Self will have to careful manage his rotations and potentially consider abandoning the two big set up if this team wants to challenge for a national title.

X-Factor: One of the main ways the four out system could work this year is if Jalen Wilson can play some small ball four. The freshman, who was originally committed to Michigan, is ranked just outside of the top 50 nationally, and is known as a good shooter. At 6'8", he has good size, and should have no problem playing as a stretch four offensively. His shooting and ability to attack the rim should really open up the floor for Azubuike to dominate, but there are concerns defensively. He's a bit thin, and more traditional four men could give him problems. There's no doubt that his ability to play as a stretch four, even just in small stretches, would be huge for this team, as the offense could be even more potent. However, if his defensive concerns are too great, Self will have to continue to rely upon the two big looks.

Final Verdict: At the end of the day, this is one of the most talented rosters in the country. Bill Self has depth all over the court, and a good mix of returning players and newcomers who not only are talented, but fit what this team needs. The return of Udoka Azubuike and the addition of more shooting should make this offense one to be feared, and the defense will be quite good as well. Even if Self is running two bigs most of the time, this team will still be a nightmare to play and they should not only finish first in the Big 12 once again, but potentially challenge for a national title.

2. Texas Tech

Starting 5: Jahmius Ramsey, Davide Moretti, Kyler Edwards, Chris Clarke, TJ Holyfield

Why They'll Be Good: The Red Raiders have exploded onto the college basketball scene the past two seasons, and they look as if they will continue their excellence this season. That starts with coach Chris Beard. He's done an incredible job of maximizing his talent in Lubbock, and he now has arguably his most talented roster. The Red Raiders are going to be an excellent defensive unit thanks to Beard's scheme that teams seem to still not know how to attack. They may not have the same personnel, but I expect the results to be similar this season. They have system veterans Davide Moretti and Kyler Edwards ready to step into bigger roles this season offensively. Moretti thrived as a low usage shooter last year, and his shooting stroke should make him one of the offensive leaders. Meanwhile, Edwards was a role player last season, but he'll have more time to shine this year. He's been listed as a breakout candidate by everyone and their mother, and for good reason. He knows how to score from all three levels, and I think he'll be one of the primary shot creators for this team, especially late in the shot clock. Additionally, there is an influx of talent coming into the program this offseason. Grad transfers TJ Holyfield from Stephen F Austin and Chris Clarke from Virginia Tech are expected to start in the front court, and with good reason. Holyfield can both post up and work on the perimeter, while Clarke is a versatile four man who can handle the ball, pass, shoot, and guard multiple positions. The freshman class is also second best in the conference and top 20 in the nation, and several players are expected to contribute immediately. The class is headline by borderline five star guard Jahmius Ramsey, who will instantly be one of the offensive go-to's on this team. He can get to the rim with ease thanks to a combination of strength and skill, and his jumper looks college ready as well. Wing Terrance Shannon is an excellent athlete who should be a factor defensively from the jump, as will big man Tyreek Smith, who is known as a good rebounder and shot blocker. Kevin McCullar is another name to know, as he enrolled for the spring semester, so he's been around the program, and reports out of Lubbock are glowingly positive. There's reports he could play some point guard, which would be very intriguing given his 6'6" frame, and he could be an impact piece. I also wouldn't count out lower ranked players Clarence Nadolny, Russel Tchewa, and Andrei Savrasov given Beard's eye for talent.

Why They Won't: There are a whole lot of new pieces here, and there are some key losses. Jarrett Culver was the eighth overall pick last June, so it's not as if this team just lost some role players. Culver, Matt Mooney, and Tariq Owens were huge parts of the defensive identity last season, and while this roster is talented, replacing those three will be very difficult. I do worry that the defensive intensity on opposing ball handlers from Mooney, excellent knowledge of the scheme as a wing defender from Culver, and shot blocking of Owens will be missed and this team won't be as good defensively. Holyfield is fairly small for a center at 6'8", so there could be some issues with interior defense. Owens may not have been the biggest guy, but his timing and leaping ability made him a prolific shot blocker, and I'm not sure Texas Tech has that sort of interior presence this year, which is a key part of their defensive identity. Offensively, Culver's loss will really be felt. He was the primary shot creator for the Red Raiders, especially late in the shot clock when they needed a bucket, and it's unclear if they have that guy this year. Moretti is more of a really good secondary option than go to scorer, and Edwards and Ramsey are uproven at this level.

X-Factor: Speaking of Kyler Edwards, he will be key to this team's success. A borderline top 150 recruit last year, he showed some really nice flashes of being able to get to the rim and create shots for himself and others. Still, he was a relatively low usage option, not starting any games and only scoring 5.5 points a game. One of the reasons he's a projected breakout candidate is he is expected to fill Culver's role on both sides of the floor. Defensively, he should be fine. He plays hard, as all of the Red Raider's do, and he could see time guarding both wings and primary ball handlers, making him a versatile defensive option. However, his offensive game will have to take the step. As I mentioned, they lack the guy right now. The roster is filled with some really good players, but it remains to be seen if they have a great one. Edwards had some great flashes last season, including scoring 12 against Virginia in the national title game, but he needs to be a consistent go-to scoring option. Maybe Jahmius Ramsey is that guy, but that's a lot to put on a freshman. The need for a primary creator is so large because without it, Texas Tech could struggle to get good looks late in the shot clock as they struggle to create penetration and kick to shooters, and will likely end up taking lots of contested shots. If Edwards can become a guy that defenses need to key on and make sure they don't let score, it makes things easier for everyone. Without that, the offense could take a bigger step back than expected and the team could struggle to live up to expectations.

Final Verdict: At this time last year, I was wondering how Chris Beard was going to replace star point guard Keenan Evans, first round draft pick Zhaire Smith, and multiple key rotation pieces. He ended up leading his team to the national title game. He faces a similarly tough task this year, but he has proven that he is a coach capable of making his teams better than the sum of their parts. There is plenty of talent here, and given the defensive strength, they will be one of the elite teams in the conference.

3. Baylor

Starting 5: Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler, Mark Vital, Mario Kegler, Tristan Clark

Why They'll Be Good: I still have nightmares about the performance Baylor put on against Syracuse in the NCAA Tournament. Quick tangent, but they made 16 threes in that game, and their most of the year, and then made 4 against Gonzaga. How fun. All that aside, they had a miraculous turn around last season, as after losing big man Tristan Clark, who had arguably been their best player up to that point, and being left for dead on account of losses to Texas Southern and Stephen F Austin, they won 10 of their final 13 games to make the Big Dance. They have Clark back this year along with some impact newcomers, and the Bears look set to build on their strong second half of last season. Starting with Clark, the big man was incredibly efficient in the games which he did play, shooting 73.7% from  the field on his way to averaging 14.6 points per game. Expect him to be a force in the low post this season. Joining him in the front court will be Mario Kegler. The Mississippi State transfer was forced to move to center after Clark went down, and filled in admirably. He can extend out to three point range a little bit, and like many of the players on the Bears, is an excellent rebounder. The same can be said for Mark Vital, who crashes the offensive glass hard and is a physical grinder defensively. Off the bench, Flo Thamba, Matthew Mayer, and Freddie Gillespie will see minutes as well. The backcourt will be led by Jared Butler, a sophomore who broke out in the second half of last season. He'll likely be a go to scorer, as he is capable from all three levels. Devontae Bandoo returns as a spot up shooting threat, and Davion Mitchell, MaCio Teague, and Jorden Turner all enter the fray. Turner is the lone 2019 freshman, and he may not see a ton of minutes right away, but he's a solid athlete who does a little bit of everything. Mitchell enters from Auburn, and he will spearhead the 1-1-3 zone that Scott Drew likes to use while providing good facilitation and the ability to attack the rim with his great speed with the ball. Teague comes from UNC Asheville, and he is a guy who can get buckets quick. He averaged 16.1 points over two years on 44.1% shooting, including 43.7% from behind the arc. If Drew elects to go with 3 guards again this year, he'll likely be a dynamic scorer. Also, the 1-1-3 zone has the potential to be stifling, as Mitchell, Vital, and Kegler are all plus defenders, and the return of Clark should add some rim protection as well. There should be plenty of turnovers and a bounce back year overall on that end.

Why They Won't: Once Clark went down, Scott Drew turned to three guard looks featuring Butler, Makai Mason, and King McClure, and gave them license to create. It worked wonders, obviously, as they got hot, but with Clark back, it's likely he'll get plenty of post up looks and the guards will have less free reign. That could halt the production of Butler and hurt the team overall. Mitchell, Butler, and Teague is an excellent backcourt, and they should be hamstrung by the need to force feed the post. Clark, for all his talent, could hurt the spacing and flow of an offense that looked very good down the stretch. By playing him, Kegler, and Vital, they lose a good amount of shooting ability, and they essentially need to give Clark touches to get the best looks. Meanwhile, replacing Clark with another guard opens up the floor for those guards to really create and get good looks either from three or at the rim, and they can dump off to Kegler and Vital as well. Drew will really need to manage his rotations well to make sure the offense maintains a balance between creation from guards and getting its bigs looks in the post.

X-Factor: One key piece for Baylor will be MaCio Teague. The UNC Asheville transfer could either be an impact sixth man or a starter depending on what Scott Drew wants to do, but either way, he'll be very important to the team. After two strong years in the Big South, Teague is going to have to scale up his game to the Big 12 level. A slight decrease in production is to be expected, but he needs to maintain his shooting stroke to be effective. His shot creation ability is very good, and he could force Drew's hand with playing time and making three guard looks more of the norm in Waco. However, if his game doesn't translate, he could easily get lost in the shuffle. Sharpshooter Devontae Bandoo will demand minutes, and there are plenty of bodies in the front court, and if he struggles, Drew could easily stick with his more traditional lineups.

Final Verdict: I am worried about the lineup issues, I am. But, there is a ton of flexibility and I think Drew will be able to find the right balance in order to keep all of his players happy as well as doing what is best for the team. There is a lot of options for the Bears, and they should end up being good on both ends of the floor. The return of Clark and addition of two new guards means they are essentially running it back and have good depth. I originally had them a tier lower, but while writing this preview, I had to bump them up as I think they'll be in the mix for a conference title.

UPDATE: Mario Kegler is no longer with the team. I'll update the preview later, but I actually don't think that's terrible for the Bears. It allows them to use more of three guard looks that worked so well last season.

The Tournament Teams

4. Texas

Starting 5: Courtney Ramey, Matt Coleman, Jase Febres, Jericho Sims, Will Baker 

Why They'll Be Good: Shaka Smart has churned out NBA big men during his time at Texas, and not much else. They went .500 last year, but did end the season with an NIT victory. They made one key offseason acquisition off the court: assistant coach Luke Yaklich. He was the architect of Michigan's elite defenses the past few seasons, and he'll bring that to Austin next season. Defense hasn't really been the problem for the Longhorns under Shaka Smart, but those two coaches together should make an elite defensive unit. Players like big men Jericho Sims and Kai Jones and wings Gerald Lindell and Jase Febres should thrive under this new system and make the Longhorns a nightmare to play against. However, Smart's teams have often struggled offensively, but I have hope they'll be better on that end this season. The backcourt duo of Courtney Ramey and Matt Coleman should be good, as both are good at attacking the rim and can shoot from distance. Three point shooting has been the biggest problem for Smart, as seemingly no one on their roster has been able to shoot. This year, however, Ramey, Coleman, Febres, and Kamaka Hepa are good shooters and finally provide some floor spacing. That should help the pick and roll that Shaka Smart likes to run, as defenses have previously been able to clog the paint without worry of a three point make. The slashing ability of players like Lindell and freshman Donovan Williams will also be useful, and Sims and Jones should be effective role men. They'll also have a true post up threat in Will Baker, a four star freshman who has a very soft touch around the basket. Players like Mo Bamba and Jaxson Hayes haven't brought that element to Texas, so this should also increase the variety in the offense. The final piece that would make the offense even more dynamic is Andrew Jones. He was one of the best players on the team before getting diagnosed with leukemia. He has since beaten the disease, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be. Either way, he's a remarkable story and deserves mention here. If he can approach his pre-cancer levels, then Texas will have another dynamic guard and scoring threat to add to the equation.

Why They Won't: The offense is likely not going to be great, even if they take a step forward. They have been pretty brutal under Shaka Smart, and shooting remains an issue. Only Ramey and Febres were above average shooters last season, and guys like Coleman and Hepa, who are expected to be shooting options for them, were in the low 30s last year. Additionally, Smart likes to run a lot of pick and roll, and the offense can often be pretty stagnant when they do so. There is very little off ball movement when they are involved in the pick and roll, which makes things much easier to defend, and once again, they need the shooting to open up the floor. This led to both Ramey and Coleman being pretty ineffective in those situations, and that will need to remedied this season. It could be a simple fix of just introducing more cuts off of the ball, or installing a new offensive system entirely, but something clearly needs to change on that end to make this team better.

X-Factor: The Longhorns needs an offensive boosts, and one guy who will be relied upon heavily for that is Matt Coleman. The junior guard will need to improve his offensive output, especially beyond the arc. He has averaged 10 points per game thus far in his career, and he'll likely need to boost that for Texas to be as good as they can be. He also only shoots 30.9% from three, a number which absolutely has to improve. He'll likely have the ball in his hands as a playmaker a lot, both for himself and others, and he'll need to be able to fill that role. Texas has lacked a dynamic shot creator, and Coleman has the potential to do that. However, the three point shot is huge for him to be able to fill that role, and if he can become an average shooter from behind the arc and perhaps improve his passing output, then Texas will step up into a level we haven't seen from them recently. 

Final Verdict: At the end of the day, I'm banking on Texas being an elite defensive unit and making the tournament on the back of that. There could be some slight growing pains in the Yaklich defensive system, but ultimately, it will be a really good unit. The offense will be a question mark, although I do believe it will be better, especially with the floor spacing. They will likely lose some games they shouldn't, but also steal some wins, and I expect them to be comfortably in the tournament this season.

5. Oklahoma State

Starting 5: Isaac Likekele, Lindy Waters, Thomas Dziagwa, Cameron McGriff, Yor Anei

Why They'll Be Good: I have made it no secret that I love Oklahoma State this year. Mike Boynton plays a very specific style that is very high octane and involves some pressing, and I just love to watch it. Rest assured: if you're watching Oklahoma State play, there will be points on the board. He gives his players the green light, and Lindy Waters and Thomas Dziagwa take full advantage of that. They took a combined 401 threes last season, and made them at a 43.4% clip. Those two are excellent shooters and will put up numbers this year. Those two space the floor very well and clearly light it up from three point range. I expect them to continue shooting around 40% from three this season. At the point, Isaac Likekele could have a nice sophomore season after a solid freshman campaign. The point guard is a big, physical guy who can get to the rim and will harass the opposing point guard. He's not much of a scorer and a very willing passer, so look for him to facilitate while taking a slight jump in scoring as well. Up front, Cameron McGriff is a versatile offensive piece who is not only a good athlete and thunderous dunker, but also has touch from three point range and is the leading returning scorer, while Yor Anei is a great shot blocker and good in the low post. Last season, this was basically the entire rotation, as Boynton kicked multiple players off the team for off the court issues. They bring in new pieces, although Marcus Watson, a four star recruit on the wing and their lone top 100 recruit this season, was suspended recently and might not make it back on the floor. Still, they have a strong group of newcomers. Guards Avery Anderson III and Chris Harris are both right around 125 nationally and should factor in off the bench, Jonathon Laurent is a grad transfer from UMass that offers good physicality and shooting on the wing, and freshman twins Kalib and Keylan Boone will bolster the front court, with Kalib likely seeing more minutes. They'll be deeper than last year, which will help with their pressing style. Mike Boyton abandoned the press for most of last season, given the lack of options, and Likekele especially could be much better in that sort of system. 

Why They Won't: There are some questions with this team. As I'll get to in a second, Isaac Likekele needs to be a better player this year on offense, especially shooting the ball. The freshmen also need to be capable of contributing some solid minutes off of the bench, as the starting lineup was run ragged last year, and it showed near the end of last year, when they really fell off a cliff. This team was also quite bad defensively. Now, maybe pressing more will help, but there's always the concern that once that press gets broken, there are a lot of easy buckets. They will definitely need to lock up on that end, or figure out a way to create more turnovers with their defensive scheme. Finally, if one of Waters or Dziagwa ends up hurt or losing their stroke from deep, there will be a lack of shooting for the Cowboys, which could end up being really bad.

X-Factor: Issac Likekele is going to be a key piece for the Cowboys this year. After an OK freshman year, he participated in the U-19 FIBA World Cup for the USA, and his inclusion was initially met with some skepticism. However, he ended up being a key piece for that squad, really harassing opposing point guards while playing over 20 minutes a game. He needs to bring that same defensive intensity back to Stillwater and also take a step forward offensively. On the defensive end, he has the bulldog mentality that you want to see from the leader of a press, and I think he'll thrive in that sort of system. However, he leaves a lot to be desired offensively. As I mentioned earlier, he's more than willing to pass the ball and is fairly good at getting to the rim thanks to his strength. However, he was a relatively poor finisher around the rim, and he's basically a zero as a jump shooter. He needs to either develop a jump shot or become much more efficient around the rim to be a viable piece offensively. Both Chris Harris and Avery Anderson III are capable of playing point guard, and if Likekele's offensive struggles continue, one or both of them could eat into his minutes. If he does improve his production, however, look for him to be a really, really good player that is a triple double threat on any given night and is a burgeoning star for Oklahoma State.

Final Verdict: As I mentioned, I absolutely love this team, so I bet you can guess where I land on them. I'm a full believer on the press being a force and Likekele taking a step offensively, making this one of the most fun teams in the country. I believe they will be a tournament lock and could even sneak into the Top 25 if everything goes well.

The Bubble Teams

6. Oklahoma

Starting 5: De'Vion Harmon, Jamal Bienemy, Austin Reaves, Brady Manek, Kristian Doolittle  

Why They'll Be Good: The Sooners got less national attention without Trae Young on the roster, but actually managed to win two more games last year. Their strength this year will be the backcourt, with freshman De'Vion Harmon, Wichita State transfer Austin Reeves, and sophomore Jamal Bienemy. Starting with Bienemy, he earned a starting spot in the second half of last season, and looked really good while doing it. He was playing point guard, and he's a really unselfish player who did a great job of setting us his teammates last year, and he should take a step forward this year with a less crowded roster and an extra summer with the team. Reaves was a solid rotation piece on some very good Wichita State teams, and he elected to transfer and ended up in Norman. He's got some ball handling ability, but he's most known for being a knockdown shooter. He is also a good defender and passer, making him a very versatile piece. Finally, Harmon is a top 50 recruit at point guard, and he has drawn high praise from those around the program. All three players are willing passers, good defenders, and can handle the ball, which makes for an intriguing three man backcourt. Up front, Brady Manek and Kristian Doolittle are a nice compliment to one another. Manek is the prototypical stretch four, while Doolittle is a bruiser on the interior who uses his strength to his advantage. Neither is a great shot blocker, and Manek is a pretty bad defender, but on the whole, this should be a good defense. The other four starters will be solid if not better on the defensive end, making this a pretty nice unit. Corbin Merritt and Kur Kuath are two bench bigs who provide more shot blocking ability, with JuCo transfers, and borderline top 150 big Victor Iwuakor is more of a Doolittle type player. Jalen Hill will be in the rotation on the wing as a top 150 recruit who is fairly well rounded. Finally, JuCo import Alondes Williams enters as a stat sheet stuffer in the backcourt. He can handle the ball, pass, attack the basket, and shoot, which makes him another versatile backcourt piece for the Sooners.

Why They Won't: Their front court is pretty weak. There have been talks about moving Doolittle to more of a wing role, and that would leave the center position open to one of Merritt, Kuath, or Iwuakor to seize. That isn't super encouraging, as none of them have really played at this sort of level and could struggle against some of the big guys in the conference. The depth as a whole is pretty shallow, as behind the starting five, you can really only count on Williams and one of those aforementioned bigs to play effectively, and even they are somewhat of question marks. Maybe Hill can work his way into the rotation too, but don't get your hopes up too high for big bench contributions. Additionally, they need to find a go to guy offensively. Everyone on the roster seems like a really good rotation piece and few players capable of creating their own shot. Bienemy was good in a low usage role, but needs to scale his effectiveness and efficiency up. The same can be said for Reaves, Manek is just a spot up shooter, and Doolittle is OK as a post scorer, but by no means someone you'd want to rely on getting you a bucket. 

X-Factor: If there's one guy that could potentially be a star for the Sooners, it's De'Vion Harmon. I'm by no means a recruiting expert and I've only seen some highlights, but he looks like the real deal. He's going to be good from day one as a ball handler and passer, and is good at operating in pick and roll. He's also got good length and quick hands, which should make him pretty good defensively, especially for a freshman. Still, the question persists: can he be the go-to guy? His jumper is a little shaky, and he'll need to become a more consistent shooter, which I think he'll do. The bigger issue is can he get to the level of scoring prowess to where he can be relied upon to get his own shot at any point in time? Without that, this is a roster that just has a lot of really good role players and no true star, and with him stepping up and becoming "the guy" for this team, this could potentially be a really good roster. 

Final Verdict: The depth and lack of a go-to scorer are issues, and I think they hold them back from being more than a bubble team. Still, they have have a potentially very, very good backcourt, with four guys who can shoot, dribble, and pass in Harmon, Bienemy, Reaves, and Williams, which is something I really like. It gives you an ability to mix and match lineups and always have some guys who are threats with the ball in their hands. It really increases the versatility of the team and I like the ability to do different things offensively. The front line could be a problem past Manek and Doolittle, but I do think the back court will be a major strength and they do end up making it into the tournament. 

7. West Virginia

Starting 5: Jordan McCabe, Emmitt Matthews, Jermaine Haley, Oscar Tshiebwe, Derek Culver

Why They'll Be Good: The Mountaineers have made national waves with their pressing style, but last year, they struggled mightily. It was a combination of the loss of program stalwarts Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles, injuries to Sagaba Konate and Beetle Bolden, chemistry issues, including multiple players getting kicked off of the team, and inexperience all over the court. They even had to abandon their pressing style because players weren't bought in enough and the defense was getting gashed. The hope around Morgantown is that this year, Press Virginia returns and the Mountaineers are back to their winning ways. Look for them to have a physically dominant front court this year. Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe are going to be dominant on the glass with their physicality. Culver was an under the radar All Big 12 Third Team selection last year, likely because of how much the Mountaineers struggled, but he's a very physical player and a good post scorer. Tshiebwe is a McDonald's All-American who is a physical freak and the heir apparent to Konate as a shot blocking menace. Both of them will crash the glass hard, and expect West Virginia to be quite a good rebounding team. Jermaine Haley and Emmitt Matthews look tailor-made for the press, as they are both very long and good athletes, and they should get some traps, plus freshman Jalen Bridges should get some minutes as another long, athletic wing. Point guard was an area of issue last year, but Jordan McCabe seized the role late and he'll look to keep that going. If he can't, Chase Harler and Brandon Knapper should be able to handle the duties, although without the ceiling of McCabe.

Why They Won't: Offense could be an area of worry, as the best West Virginia teams have relied on individual shot creation from guys like Jevon Carter. They'll need one of McCabe, Matthews, Haley, or JuCo transfers Taz Sherman and Sean McNeil to step up and be the guy offensively. Plus, no one on the roster is a good shooter, so floor spacing could be a problem. The press could also be limited, as playing two not very mobile bigs isn't what you want in an up-tempo system. They could have to take one of the two bruising bigs off the court and play Haley or Bridegs as a smaller four, which would make the press more potent, but it'd make them a worse rebounding team. The bench is also a bunch of question marks, and given the pressing style, the Mountaineers typically use the bench quite a lot. They'll need some of the JuCo transfers and lower ranked freshman to be capable of giving OK minutes. Bob Huggins will need to find the right mix of players to optimize their skill sets and figure out the correct amount of pressing for this group of players.

X-Factor: Of all the potential breakout guys offensively, I would put my money on Emmitt Matthews. There was a lot of optimism surrounding him coming in as a freshman, and once guys like Esa Ahmad and Wesley Harris were out of the way, he showed some real flashes of being a much better player this year. After doing so just twice in his first 25 games, he scored in double digits in four of his final seven, highlighted by a 22 points, 8 rebound outburst in the conference tournament upset of Texas Tech. He also put up 21 in a CBI contest versus Coastal Carolina, and he also chips in on the boards. He looks like a potential wing scoring option that could be capable of creating his own shot and being a go to scoring option. However, he needs to deliver with more consistency and work on making his jumper more consistent after shooting 24% from three. Still, he is very good at attacking the basket and should be able to take a step forward offensively this year.

Final Verdict: I really don't know what to make of this team. I'm super high on Matthews, Culver, and Tshiebwe, and I like Haley and McCabe well enough. Still, I don't know what they look like this year. I don't think they end up pressing as much given the two bigs, but I think they are going to own the glass this year. Can their defense be good without the press? Maybe? They have some nice pieces, but I don't think they'll have enough shot creation or quality depth this year, so I think they just end up on the wrong side of the bubble this year.

8. Iowa State

Starting 5: Prentiss Nixon, Rasir Bolton, Tyrese Haliburton, Solomon Young, Michael Jacobson 

Why They'll Be Good: The Cyclones had a weird up and down year last season, getting red hot before going ice cold seemingly instantly. However, they lose a lot of talent from that team, with Mariol Shayok, Talen Horton-Tucker, Lindell Wigginton, and Nick Weiler-Babb departing the program, and they will have to replace them. The obvious candidate to step up is Tyrese Haliburton, a Swiss army knife wing who can handle the ball, shoot, pass, and defend, and do it all efficiently. He seems poised to step up into a bigger role after spending the summer with the US under 19 team in the FIBA World Cup. They also welcome in guards Prentiss Nixon and Rasir Bolton, who were both big time scorers at their previous stops, albeit inefficiently and on bad teams. The system in Ames is conductive to getting efficient shots, so there is hope that they fit right in. In the front court, Michael Jacobson will look to build on his effective first year, with the ability to score inside and out. Solomon Young also makes his return from injury, and he will add some physicality and rebounding to the front court as well, and George Conditt could be in line for a breakout. Zion Griffin could have a solid season on the wing, and there's a chance one of the freshmen makes an immediate impact. I love Caleb Grill, who was originally committed to South Dakota State, and while I don't know if he'll contribute immediately, I think he'll be a nice piece down the line. The defense also has some alright pieces, with Haliburton and Young looking like plus defenders. 

Why They Won't: The offense is going to look weird. Last year, they had multiple go to scorers. This year, they might not have one. Haliburton thrived in a low usage role, and I think there where he's best suited. However, he'll be relied upon to be one of the top scorers on this team, and I'm not sure he can handle that role. How Nixon and Bolton adjust will be key as well. They were mostly chuckers at Colorado State and Penn State respectively, and they need to become lower usage and more efficient this year. Haliburton and Bolton, and Jacobson to some extent, are the only shooting threats, although Grill can make shots from deep if he can play, and they might struggle with their floor spacing. They also lack depth, as past Conditt off the bench, I don't know who gives them quality minutes. 

X-Factor: If there's one player who can make this team a real threat, it's Tyrese Haliburton. I've mentioned it a few times, but he looked really good in a lower usage role next to the star power of Mariol Shayok and Lindell Wigginton. He made the open threes he was given, often made the right pass, and had a good showing defensively. The real question is if he can extrapolate that efficiency up  to a higher usage role. He will also have to display more shot creation abilities and be much better at attacking the rim this year, and not just float around the perimeter waiting for an open shot. Finally, he rarely turns it over, but I think that's a result of him not being aggressive enough, especially while attacking the basket. He needs to become the go to guy on this offense if they want to make the playoffs, and I think watching him become the man will be an interesting transition worth monitoring. 

Final Verdict: This team was a lot of fun to watch last season, and I don't think that will happen this year. I think it ends up being a lot uglier, with Nixon and Bolton taking a lot of shots and Haliburton failing to step up to be a a go to scorer. Michael Jacobson is a solid piece, but I really don't know if there's more than six guys that can be relied upon for this team, and I think they end up being closer to the NIT than the tournament.

The NIT Hopefuls

9. TCU

Starting 5: Edric Dennis, RJ Nembhard, Desmond Bane, Diante Smith, Kevin Samuel 

Why They'll Be Good: I sneaky like this TCU roster for the upcoming season. Desmond Bane is an absolute star, and he could lead the conference in scoring. He's a sniper from deep, and he could be tasked with even more shot creation this year. RJ Nembhard has a chance to breakout as a sophomore who was touted as a lethal shooter, but has struggled from deep thus far. Transfers Edric Dennis and Jaire Grayer should factor into the backcourt rotation right away, as the combo guards know how to put the ball in the basket, with Dennis being more of a guy who attacks the rim, and Grayer a shooter from deep. They also add guards PJ Fuller and Francesco Farabello as freshmen, and they should contribute to the rotation immediately. Farabello is probably the most natural point guard and has shown good play from the point guard spot in International play with Argentina, while Fuller is more of a scoring guard. Fellow freshman Diante Smith will look to establish himself as more of a small ball four, which could be great for Kevin Samuel. The big man looks like a cornerstone in the front court, and he is a threat on both sides of the floor. He is very strong and has good post moves, which makes him perfect to have the floor spaced out around him. 

Why They Won't: There are numerous concerns with this roster. For starters, they have one true lead guard on the roster in the freshman Farabello, and it's unclear how quickly he'll adjust to the college game. That means players like Bane, Dennis, and Nembhard will be on the ball more, and they aren't exactly known for their ball movement skills. The Jamie Dixon offense is good for ball movement, so there is hope they can overcome the lack of a natural distributor. They will also be pretty poor defensively. Bane is a menace on that end, and Samuel is a good shot blocker, but beyond that, things don't look great. Smith, or whoever is playing the five, could have trouble guarding some of the more physical fours in the Big 12. Backcourt defense could also be an issue, so look for that to be a potential issue. Plus, there isn't a ton of depth, especially in the front court. It's unclear how they'll be able to give Samuel rest given no other real big men, and he could wear down by the end of the season.

X-Factor: There's a few guys who could be listed here, from Francisco Farabello to Desmond Bane, but I'm going to go with RJ Nembhard. The sophomore wing was touted as a good shooter out of high school, but hasn't lived up to that thus far, shooting 28% in his college career to date. Their offense has the potential to actually be quite good, but they'll need to have the shooting to do so. Bane is going to get his, and Edric Dennis will be more of a slasher, so it's on Jaire Grayer and Nembhard to make their shots from deep. I have more trust in Grayer, given his longer track record, so Nembhard finding his stroke from deep is going to be key to keeping this team competitive. 

Final Verdict: Honestly, I could see putting this team ahead of Iowa State. I've seen some people putting them last, but I think Desmond Bane is a First Team All Big 12 level guy, and they can potentially do some interesting things with four out around Kevin Samuel and be pretty good offensively. Unfortunately, the defense and lack of depth in the front court will hold them back, but I think they'll be fun to watch and surprise some people this season.

The Basement

10. Kansas State

Starting 5: Cartier Diarra, Mike McGuirl, DaJuan Gordon, Xavier Sneed, Makol Mawein

Why They'll Be Good: Bruce Weber engineered a title winning campaign to knock off the in-state rival Jayhawks, but things will be tougher this year in Manhattan. They lose stars Barry Brown and Dean Wade, and they don't have a ton of options to replace them. Xavier Sneed will take on a bigger role, and he could experience a breakout season on the wing. Cartier Diarra has been a potential breakout guy seemingly forever, and this could finally be the year without Kamau Stokes sharing point guard duties with him. JuCo transfer Donald Sloan will actually battle Diarra as the starting point guard, as he led the NJCAA in assists last season and is a gifted passer. Freshman DaJaun Gordon should help offensively as well, as the well regarded freshman should be able to get buckets from day one. The staple of the Wildcats the past few years has been their defense, and that shouldn't change this year. They will once again be stout defensively with an untested man to man system, where Diarra, Sneed, Mike McGuirl, and Makol Mawein thrive. 

Why They Won't: I really don't know if this team will be able to score outside of Sneed and possibly Gordon. Last year, they were very reliant on Dean Wade and Barry Brown to create their offense, and that was very apparent during their NCAA Tournament first round loss to UC Irvine. Mawein is really just a factor around the rim, Diarra and McGuirl can't shoot, a common factor with this team, Sloan isn't known for getting his own offense, and the rest of the bench isn't great either. They don't have a ton of depth either, with freshman Montavious Murphy and lifelong backups Levi Stockard and Shaun Williams proving most of the minutes outside of the top 6 players. 

X-Factor: Cartier Diarra has been tipped by many, including myself, as a guy ready to have a breakout year multiple times. A point guard with good size? Sign me up. He also always gives these flashes of being able to shoot, but always seems to miss whenever he needs to make the shot. He's a great defender, a good passer, and pretty good around the rim as well. However, he needs to be much better at consistently getting to the rim as well as making shots from three much more consistently. This is the year for him, as Kamau Stokes is gone and there are plenty of points available for him to get. If he can become an effective secondary option to Xavier Sneed, then this team has the potential to be better than where I have them. Don't count me as being too optimistic though.

Final Verdict: I really don't like this team. I didn't like them last year, and I definitely don't like them this year. The defense is going to be good, because they have some guys that fit the scheme really well and the scheme has proven to be effective. However, this offense is going to be a mess outside of Xavier Sneed, and I really worry about the lack of shooting and shot creation. I may be being unfair since I'm just in general not a fan of their style since I prefer offensive, open basketball, but I think this is a really tough year for the Wildcats.

First Team All Big 12

G: Devon Dotson, Kansas

G: Desmond Bane, TCU

G: Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State

F: Xavier Sneed, Kansas State

F: Udoka Azubuike, Kansas

Second Team All Big 12

G: Davide Moretti, Texas Tech

G: Matt Coleman, Texas

G: Lindy Waters, Oklahoma State

F: Tristan Clark, Baylor

F: Chris Clarke, Texas Tech

Third Team All Big 12

G: Jahmius Ramsey, Texas Tech

G: De'Vion Harmon, Oklahoma

G: Isaac Likekele, Oklahoma State

F: Ochai Agbaji, Kansas

F: Derek Culver, West Virginia

All Big 12 Freshman Team

G: De'Vion Harmon, Oklahoma

G: Jahmius Ramsey, Texas Tech

F: Will Baker, Texas

F: Oscar Tshiebwe, West Virginia

F: Jalen Wilson, Kansas

Big 12 Player of the Year: Udoka Azubuike, C, Kansas

Big 12 Freshman of the Year: Jahmius Ramsey, PG, Texas Tech