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The Fast Break 11/15/18

This week has been super tough for me, with 3 tests in 2 days as Thanksgiving approaches. However, I will be home for Feast Week and I will be covering a lot of those games, so buckle up. Anyways, on with the Fast Break

What I Saw
Wisconsin @ Xavier
- The Badgers looked good in this one, but I'm still worried about their depth this year. There's no denying how good the trio of Ethan Happ, D'Mitrik Trice, and Brad Davidson are, but they combined to score 71 of the Badgers' 77 points. On one hand, you can look at that as a statement of their talent, as they each possess the individual ability to fill up the box score. However, I think the lack of points from the rest of the roster is concerning. It's not as if they were without opportunities either. Khalil Iverson and Brevin Pitzl each took 6 shots, but they combined for 4 points on 2-12 shooting, with both makes coming from Iverson. While Happ is clearly the star of the show here, and I really like Trice and especially Davidson as floor spacers around him, I worry about the rest of their rotation.
- For fans of Xavier, I wouldn't get too worried about this result. This is a roster with a lot of turnover, and it showed. They were sloppy and looked like they were still figuring out how to play together. There were certainly encouraging signs, with Naji Marshall going for a double double, scoring 24 points and getting 13 rebounds, as did D-II transfer Zach Hankins, who scored 11 points and got 10 rebounds, while also blocking 5 shots. That's a formidable front court, especially considering Hankins came off the bench. It certainly wasn't all good for the Musketeers, however, and the main thing that stuck out to me was Quentin Goodin. He's a talented player, there's no doubt about that, but he looked like he was attempting to replace all of the lost production by himself. He was taking ill-advised shots, including a lot of floaters and pull up jumpers around the lane. I think he's more effective as a complimentary piece, more of a pure table settler than he is as a go-to scoring option. I think his 18 shots also explains the 10 assists Xavier had in this one, which obviously is bad. As the season progresses, I expect the team to iron out their kinks as players settle into their roles and I think Xavier will be OK.

Memphis @ LSU
- There were a lot of people questioning Memphis coming into this season, and I think they did a lot to quiet their doubters in this one. While they certainly weren't perfect, they played with a very good LSU team and never let the Bayou Bengals break the game open when it seemed they had the opportunity to do so multiple times throughout the game. They played freshmen point guards Alex Lomax and Tyler Harris together for most of the game, and I like that look. It allows Jeremiah Martin to play off the ball and focus on being a scorer first. They also have a deep rotation, with all nine of players who saw the floor logging 15 minutes or more. I also liked the system Penny Hardaway has implemented, with a press and an emphasis on playing in transition along with an NBA style offense where they have good floor spacing and attack the basket. They certainly have room to grow on that end, but I think that will come as the season progresses, and given how the American has looked so far, I think they will be a top 3 team in that conference.
- The thing that impresses me the most about LSU is how deep they are. They had 5 players in double digits, but none over 20 points. Even more impressive, Waters and Reid, who I highlighted the last time I covered LSU (you can read that here), only had 20 points combined, so the role players on this team are all clearly very talented. Skylar Mays led the way with 19 points, including a contender for dunk of the year. If you haven't seen it, do yourself a favor and watch it here. He also knocked down 3 threes, and this team has about 7 players capable of leading the team in scoring on a given night, which should terrify opposing teams.
- I want to highlight two guys for Memphis that aren't getting anywhere near enough attention in Jeremiah Martin and Kyvon Davenport. These two both return from last year's team, where they were incredibly talented pieces and I think with all the hype around Penny Hardaway and the recruiting class, these two are being forgotten about. Martin is a lefty guard who can really score. He scored 18.9 points game last season for the Tigers, and he had 15 in this one. He wasn't very efficient, but he has a nice jumper and should lead the team in scoring this year. Davenport is a stretch forward with a diverse skillset. He can shoot it from deep as well as but the ball on the ground and drive past his man. He is also a good rebounder, although he really struggled against LSU bigs in this one. He did open the season against Tennessee Tech with a double double, scoring 30 points and getting 10 boards, and he'll lead the front court this year. For as good as the new recruits under Penny are, these two will be critical to the team's success this year.

Michigan @ Villanova
- So it's an understatement to say Villanova looked really bad, but they did. I will say I don't think this will be a problem all year, but Jay Wright clearly needs to figure out his rotation and his team needs to improve defensively. They couldn't stop anyone on Michigan, and they were giving up open shots left and right, especially at the rim. They were also turning the ball over in a way that Villanova typically doesn't. They had 21 turnovers in this one, and that led to 25 points for the Wolverines. The offense as a whole was dreadful, although I think a large portion of the credit has to go to Michigan's defense, which I'll get to in a second. Still, only having 1 player in double figures, Eric Paschall with 10, and shooting 3-15 from deep is very bad. They lacked creation on the offensive end and seemed far too willing to go straight into isolation in a way I haven't ever seen Villanova do. Things look very bad in Nova Nation right now, but I certainly trust Jay Wright to turn things around and get this team playing well by conference play.
- I really wanna talk about this Michigan defense. Luke Yaklich has done wonders and Michigan is absolutely elite on that end. One thing I noticed is how excellent they are at defending penetration. Villanova could drive to the block, but when they went to shoot, they were met by a Michigan defender with his hands straight up, unmoving. It's nearly impossible to get a shot off in that scenario, and it happened often. They weren't biting on pump fakes and they held their ground when their man tried to pivot around them. They could only try and kick it out, where Michigan was guarding their men tight. This played a large part in the 11 steals the defense generated. They didn't let Nova get clean looks from the three point line either, which led to the 20% mark the Wildcats posted from deep. I'm normally an offense guy, but Michigan's defense was something beautiful to watch.
- On offense, John Beilein typically relies on the three pointer, but that wasn't the case in this one. Michigan only made 5 shots from behind the arc on 17 attempts, which is pretty poor. Instead, they relentlessly attacked the basket, which Villanova seemed unable to stop. Charles Matthews seemed able to get a layup at will, and he showed off a nice post fade jumper on smaller defenders, and he led the team with 19. Freshman Ignas Brazdeikis was as advertised, scoring 18 points and he was also able to get buckets whenever he wanted. But there's one guy I really want to talk about.
- Before I get to my main event, Isaiah Livers looked good for Michigan. He's a multi-positional forward who showed off an improved stroke from deep, making both of his shots from deep. But I really want to discuss Zavier Simpson. I tweeted about him during the game (follow me @ThreePointRange), and I think he's one of the most underrated players in the country. In this game, he was the best player. He absolutely embarrassed Collin Gillespe for Villanova. On offense, he was able to drive past him and get a layup at any time, Gillespe was helpless. He also orchestrated the game- particularly in transition- beautifully, racking up 6 assists. But he really shines on the defensive end. Gillespe looked lost on offense, turning it over 5 times and only making one field goal. Simpson absolutely locked him down, and picked up 5 steals on the game. He's a bulldog on that end, and probably one of the best defensive point guards in the country. He's an excellent player and I think he deserves a lot more publicity for how great he is.

Marquette @ Indiana
- A little backstory on me: last year, I irrationally loved Creighton as a team. I actually thought they had Elite Eight potential, and I felt very justified when they defeated Villanova. They were so much fun to watch, and when their offense was on, they could play with anyone. I came into this game ready to watch a team I thought I was going to love as much as Creighton. Instead, Indiana swooped in and stole my heart. Similar to Michigan, I was impressed with the Hoosiers' defense. They jumped out to an early lead in large part by capitalizing on turnovers and getting out on the fast break. However, they managed to take away the three point line, an area which Marquette is normally incredible. The Golden Eagles only made 5 threes, and stud point guard Markus Howard looked pretty bad for most of the game. The team also only managed 8 assists, thanks in large part to Indiana's D.
- On offense, the Hoosiers were pretty great. When they weren't getting easy breakaway layups, they were getting to the rim and finishing against a weak Marquette interior. They were also pretty solid from deep, making nearly half their attempts. Saint Mary's transfer Evan Fitzner was especially impressive in that area, making all 4 of his attempts from downtown. He should see more minutes alongside Juwan Morgan in the front court if he can keep making shots like that. Morgan was also good, scoring 13 and getting 8 rebounds. It was freshman sensation Romeo Langford who led the way, however, dropping 22 in Assembly Hall and he looked the part of freshman phenom, making some really nice layups. He also contributed 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks, which is pretty impressive. He's going to be a major factor in the Big Ten and one of the better scorers in the entire country.
- I'm obviously not in the Marquette practices, and I can't speak to how good these players actually are. But from the outside, it really seems like Joseph Chartanouy and Ed Morrow need to be getting more minutes. They seem to compliment the stars on this roster, Howard and the Hauser brothers Sam and Joey, who all scored 18 points. They are both good defenders and fill obvious holes. Chartanouy is a big point guard who can guard the opposing team's best guard and allow Howard to play off the ball a little bit. He isn't great offensively, but doesn't need to be giving the scoring prowess of the three aforementioned guys. As for Morrow, he's a shot blocker and rebounder. He has a limited offensive arsenal, but I don't think he can be so much worse than Theo John and Max Heldt that he only gets 4 minutes. In Marquette's last game against Bethune-Cookman, he blocked three shots and it's what he was known for at Nebraska. I would like to see those two get more minutes getting forward and I think they could improve the dreadful defense we saw last night.
- I also think Jamal Cain could help on that end. He's an athletic forward with the ability to switch on defense and guard multiple positions. He also led the team in rebounds in this one with 7, and showed a decent shooting stroke, making a three. He needs to be more aggressive on offense, but I think he could emerge over Sacar Anim and Brandon Bailey as they guy that fits perfectly alongside the Hauser on the wings. For Indiana, Robert Phinisee was a standout in this one. A big question I had for  the Hoosiers coming into the year was point guard play. Phinisee played exactly as well as anyone could've hoped from a freshman against a top 25 team, scoring 12 points, including a made three, but more importantly got 8 assists and only turned the ball over once. He was also key in slowing down Howard, as he drew the defensive assignment. He looks like the point guard of now and of the future in Bloomington.

Miscellaneous
- Also happening in Indiana last night was Notre Dame losing to Radford. The Highlanders are a good team, making the tournament last season, and they look ready to return. Caleb Tanner got hot, making 6 threes, as did John Mooney for the Irish. Ed Polite is a name to know for mid-major fans, as he scored 16 and grabbed 11 rebounds and once again stars for Radford. It could be a long season in South Bend, and this is hopefully a precursor for what will happen to their football team this weekend against Syracuse.
- Jordan Ford gets buckets. He scored 28 against a good New Mexico State team, and he's been doing it all year. He was coming off a 35 point performance against Utah Valley, and he also scored against McNeese. He's not just scoring either, as he had 5 assists and 3 steals for the Gaels. He's going to make the game against Gonzaga really fun, and if he keeps this up, he might get Saint Mary's back to the tournament.
- Robert Morris played Mount Aloysius yesterday. In a normally insignificant game, Josh Williams turned in a memorable performance. He dropped 49 points on 15 made threes. That's right, he made 15 threes. He only took 25 shots from deep, so Mount Aloysius clearly must not have gotten the memo that he can shoot. I know the opponent is great, but that ties a Division I record, and that's pretty significant. Good for him.
- Tennessee has a really, really good defense. They stifled Georgia Tech, and they have an unfair amount of size and length on the roster. Everyone that got minutes is a plus defender, and they're going to be a very good team on that end, and they aren't exactly bad offensively either. The SEC is just really good, with the Vols, LSU, Auburn, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida and others. There legitimately might be 4 top 15 teams and 3 top 10 in the conference.

A Look Ahead
Charleston Classic
Feast Week gets underway in Charleston, with a fun 8 team field that features some intriguing teams. The action gets started today at 11:30 with Ball State and Virginia Tech. The Cardinals are one of the more intriguing mid-majors and are probably the biggest threat to Buffalo in the MAC. The Hokies, meanwhile, are looking to establish themselves as a top team in the ACC, and they should win this one. Up next is Alabama and Northeastern. The Crimson Tide are looking to replace star point guard Collin Sexton and have an intriguing group, while Northeastern, led by their own star guard in 
Pusica, is hopefully of an at-large berth out of the CAA. I think Bama takes this one thanks to their stout defense, but this has upset written all over it. Purdue will play Appalachian State in the next matchup, and this seems like the most straightforward. They have each played a fellow participant, with Purdue knocking off  Ball State, and Appalachian State suffering a loss at the hands of the Crimson Tide. The Boilermakers should have this one thanks to the impressive play of Carsen Edwards. Finally, Wichita State takes on Davidson at 7. These are two teams off to shaky starts after losing key players. The Shockers have almost an entirely new roster, and after defeating Providence in their first game, they lost to Louisiana Tech. Meanwhile, Davidson has started off an unconvincing 2-0 and recently snuck by Dartmouth by 3. This one could go either way, but I'll go with the duo of Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson to pull out the win.
Predictions:
Virginia Tech 83-67 Ball State
Alabama 81-74 Northeastern
Purdue 84-66 Appalachian State
Davidson 77-75 Wichita State

Myrtle Beach Invitational
The next exempt event is also in South Carolina, and also feature some strong teams. It also kicks off at 11:30 in the morning, with Wake Forest and Saint Joes. The Demon Deacons are looking for a good year, and Danny Manning has a lot of talent to work with this season. However, the Hawks are finally healthy and feature and impressive win over Old Dominion this year. I'm going to give them the edge thanks to their Charlie Brown and Lamarr Kimble having big games. Up next is the Knights of UCF against the Titans of Cal State Fullerton. Johnny Dawkins' bunch was considered the favorite in the American, but they have been inconsistent at best this year, following an impressive win over Rider with a loss to FAU. They shouldn't have too much trouble in this one, however, although the Titans aren't to be overlooked. They took Arizona State to 2 overtimes and made the tournament last season. I'm going with UCF, but it might be closer than many think. They'll be followed by Valparaiso and Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers should be considered favorites as they finally have their full team, and looked impressive in the first half against Washington. Meanwhile, the Crusaders entered the season with low expectations and have yet to play a Division I team this season. Finally, the action concludes with Monmouth and West Virginia. The Hawks aren't as good as they were a few years ago, and the Mountaineers and their press should have no trouble taking them down in this one.
Predictions:
Saint Joes 76-71 Wake Forest
UCF 80-66 Cal State Fullerton
Western Kentucky 75- 58 Valpo
West Virginia 84-62 Monmouth

Empire 2K Classic
Madison Square Garden plays host to this exempt event, and it features some very talented teams. The first matchup comes in the form of former Big East rivals Syracuse and UConn. The Orange return basically all their production along with some impact players, and the 2-3 has looked good in their first two games. Meanwhile, optimism is high for the Huskies as Danny Hurley has inherited the program and he will look for a statement win. I don't see him getting it, as the zone will create problems and Oshae Brissett will continue his breakout on a bigger stage for the Orange. After that, Oregon faces Iowa. All the talk around the Ducks has been about star freshman Bol Bol, and he figures to have a big impact in this one. Don't count out the Hawkeyes, however, as they have a talented group and enter 2-0. These should be two really good games, and I'm very excited for day 2, especially if we get a top 15 matchup between Syracuse and Oregon like I think we will.
Predictions:
Syracuse 68-58 UConn
Oregon 83-76 Iowa

Ohio State @ Creighton
The Gavitt Games wrap up today, and the first of two games tonight is the Buckeyes against the Blue Jays. Ohio State pulled off a big win in Cincinnati, and their defense is legit. I think that will give Creighton a lot of trouble as they attempt to recover from the losses of Khyri Thomas and Marcus Foster. I like some of their players, notably TyShon Alexander and Mitch Ballock, but they struggled with some mid-majors so far and I don't see them winning this one.
Prediction: Ohio State 72-58 Creighton

Penn State @ DePaul
The last of the Gavitt Games may be the worst one. The Nittany Lions lost Tony Carr to the NBA, and I think they will really struggle to replace him this year. DePaul has been struggling for a while, and that doesn't seem like changing this year. However, I think the Blue Demons have the best player on the court in Max Strus, and I think they defend home court in this one.
Prediction: DePaul 74-68 Penn State

Texas A&M @ Gonzaga
The Aggies recently lost to UC Irvine, while Gonzaga defeated Texas Southern by 37 and are averaging 112 points a game this year. That should tell you everything you need to know about this game. I've been super out on Texas A&M all offseason, as I don't really like any player on their roster, and I think Gonzaga is a top 5 team without Killian Tillie. If you were planning on staying up late for this one, you should be able to go to sleep early as this should be a rout.
Prediction: Gonzaga 85-63 Texas A&M

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