Multi-Bid Mid Majors Preview

Unfortunately, I am not as knowledgeable about these conferences as I am about some others, and I won’t be able to breakdown every team. As such, I will link to the wonderful previews provide by Three Man Weave, CBB Central, and Mid Major Madness. If you aren’t already, check them out, and you should follow them all on Twitter (@3MW_CBB, @CBB_Central, @mid_madness). They are all well worth it and all provide excellent content.

A-10

One of the most competitive conferences in the country, the A-10 has a lot of quality teams, and it’s one of the hardest to attempt to judge where teams will finish. It should be a lot of fun to watch with a lot of really talented players, and I recommend trying to watch all of the top 10 teams at some point this year.

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Team Previews

1. Saint Louis

Best Case Scenario: One of the most talented rosters in the mid-major ranks, Saint Louis has an excellent season. They are very deep and talented all over the court. The backcourt, led last season by Jordan Goodwin and Javon Bess last season, both physical players who can attack the basket, and they’ll be joined by two transfers, Tremaine Isabel and Dion Wiley. Isabel is a quick guard who can fill up the stat sheet- putting up 21 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.4 assists with Drexel last year- while Wiley spaces the floor. They are all plus defenders and the entire team succeeds on that end. They also have a bruising frontcourt, also boosted by newcomers. Luis Santos comes in from South Florida, and they also grabbed top 100 freshman Carte'are Gordon to bolster Hasahn French and DJ Foreman. They dominate the glass and continue to finish well around the rim with a rim-running style. The Billikens are able to crack the top 25 and are a no-doubt tournament team on their way to the A-10 title.  

Worst Case Scenario: Travis Ford continues to get talent but disappoint with it. They finished tied for fifth in the A-10 last season despite all of the talented players on the roster. There are issues with minutes allocation given the amount of talented players on the roster. Isabel, Bess,and Goodwin all battle each other for ball dominance, and there is little to no floor spacing with those three on the floor. Gordon, while an athletic freak, isn’t polished enough to contribute yet, and French doesn’t take any sort of step forward offensively. Silva is still mediocre, which he was at USF, and so is DJ Foreman. Things are once again up and down for Ford and SLU, and they play their way out of tournament and A-10 contention

My Take: I’m going to bet on the talent of the Billikens here and pick them to win the A-10. I think they have enough talent here to be an at-large team. The backcourt and wing options could all very well score double digits, and the frontcourt should clean up on the glass and dominate the smaller team in their conference. This is just the most talented team in what projects to be a much deeper conference, and I think they will be in good position no matter what happens in the conference tournament.

2. George Mason

Best Case Scenario: The Patriots return their entire roster from last season, and that experience is huge in a league that loses a lot of talent. Otis Livingston returns as the leader, and the offense revolves around him creating out of pick and rolls, where he can attack the rim, shoot it from deep, or dish it to a teammate. He has a strong supporting cast, with shooters Jaire Grayer and Goanar Mar providing spacing from the wing, Justin Kier as a physical wing, and some physical bigs. Javon Greene breaks into the backcourt rotation as another floor spacer, and Greg Calixte has an offensive breakout in the frontcourt as a sophomore. Jarred Reuter comes in from Virginia and he thrives with the drop in competition. George Mason wins the A-10 regular season, and they have the ability to slip up in the tournament thanks to an at large resume.

Worst Case Scenario: Outside of Livingston, there isn’t a lot of offensive talent. Grayer is a fine role player, but he isn’t a viable second scoring option, and the same can be said for Kier. The frontcourt is still pretty bad defensively, and Reuter doesn’t help much. There also aren’t any frontcourt players that can create their own shots offensively. The depth is pretty thin, especially given a weak recruiting class and no breakouts from role players last year. They are once again a mid-level team in the Atlantic 10 and are nowhere near the tournament.

My Take: George Mason kicks off a group of teams ranked 2-9 that could pan out in so many different ways. I’m going to take the team that returns the majority of their core along with a high-major transfer. I love Livingston, and I’m a fan of the role players on the roster, notably Grayer. Reuter should immediately help the defense at the rim, and be very good on the glass. I think they could end up around the bubble, but I think they’ll need to win the conference tournament to go dancing.

3. Davidson

Best Case Scenario: The Wildcats are coming off of a near upset of Kentucky in last year’s tournament, and they bring back a loaded backcourt. Kellan Grady scored 18 points a game as a freshman, and it’s not unreasonable to think he scores over 20 a game this season. He’s excellent offensively and a high major talent. He’ll be joined in the backcourt by Jon Axel Gudmundsson, who will run the point and do a little bit of everything for Davidson. He’s an excellent shooter, good defender, and he’ll be tasked with taking care of the ball. KiShawn Pritchett and Luke Frampton emerge as good secondary pieces, and they are both able to shoot, like many of the players on the team. The frontcourt also brings a shooter in Dusan Kovacevic, when healthy, but they can play much more physical with Nathan Ekwu playing there. They’ll continue with a 2-3 zone that was very effective last season, and helps the defensive woes that continually plague Bob McKillop’s teams. Davidson is stellar offensively and plays their way to an A-10 title and at-large contention.

Worst Case Scenario: The Wildcats really miss star forward Peyton Aldridge, and they don’t have a replacement for him on the roster. The frontcourt is super thin, with basically no production from last season returning. Pritchett will be relied on to play as a small ball four, thrusting Frampton or a freshman into more minutes, which they are not ready for. The defense also suffers with less length in the zone, and rebounding takes a step back. Grady and Gudmundsson can’t handle the increased focus from defenses, and their efficiency goes way down. The frontcourt is a major question all year and Davidson drops into the middle of the conference.
My Take: This team could very well dominate the conference. Their guards are incredible and both high major talents, and I think they will be excellent this year. I also like Frampton and Pritchard to have breakout seasons and be very good for Bob McKillop this year. However, the loss of Aldridge hurts really badly, and they have little to no frontcourt depth this. I don’t think they will win the conference, as some are predicting, but they should be very fun to watch, especially given their star guards.

4. Saint Joe’s

My Take: The major key for the Hawks this season will be health. Lamarr Kimble, Pierfrancesco Oliva, and Charlie Brown all missed entire seasons over the past two years, and if they can stay healthy, Saint Joe’s should be very good this year. Kimble is excellent when he’s on the floor, especially in transition, which is also where South Florida transfer Kory Holden shines. Oliva and Taylor Funk are floor spacing bigs, which really opens up their half court offense. They could run into problems against some teams, but their defense should be solid, and as long as they are healthy, they should be near the top of the A-10.

5. VCU

My Take: As with the Hawks, health will be very important for VCU this year, specifically Marcus Evans. The Rice transfer has been recovering from an Achilles tear this offseason, and if he can remain healthy, he’ll be one of the best players in the A-10. He’ll join De’Riante Jenkins in the backcourt, and those two should be able to play with any backcourt in the conference. Freshman PJ Byrd will also compete for the point guard role, and allowing the other two to play off the ball would be huge. Marcos Santos-Silva should be a prolific shot blocker and help anchor an improved defense. If Evans can get healthy, and the point guard issues sort themselves out, VCU could make noise during conference play.

6. UMass

My Take: The Minutemen welcome a very talented group of newcomers to partner with a solid returning cast. Leading the returners is Luwane Pipkins, who scored over 20 points a game last season and is a good facilitator and defender. Carl Pierre also returns as a huge threat from three point range, which partners really well with the roster of the roster liking to penetrate. Rashaan Holloway returns from injury, and will feature in the low post. They’ll be joined by a slew of transfer and one of the best recruiting classes in the conference. Jonathan Laurent from Rutgers highlights the transfer, and he should start immediately. Curtis Cobb, another good shooter from LSU, Keon Clergeot, who arrives from Memphis and is a solid point guard that can spell Pipkins or let him feature off the ball, and Kieran Hayward, another guard who comes from LSU, should all see minutes immediately along with top 200 freshman wing Samba Diallo and guard Tre Wood. If Matt McCall can figure out how to optimize the rotation, a big if, UMass is a dark horse pick to compete for the conference title.

7. Rhode Island

My Take: Life post-Danny Hurley begins for URI, and it will be a tough year for David Cox. He’ll be tasked with a minor rebuild after the loss of lots of production from Jared Terrell, EC Matthews, Stanford Robinson, and Andre Berry. The cupboard isn’t entirely bare, however, as he still has Jeff Dowtin, Fatts Russell, and Cyril Langevine. They should all breakout in larger roles, and Dowtin and Russell is a particularly scary combo in the backcourt. They also have a top 50 recruiting class, the best in the conference, and all of the players should contribute right away. Jermaine Harris should step in and start immediately in the frontcourt, and Dana Tate and Tyrese Martin will feature heavily on the wing. The defense should still be solid, and with a dynamic backcourt, Rhode Island will compete, but ultimately fall into the middle of the pack.

8. Dayton

My Take: The Flyers welcomed Anthony Grant back to replace Archie Miller last year, and it didn’t go great. However, with a deeper roster, they should be better. The backcourt should be much improved as the two starters last year, Jalen Crutcher and Jordan Davis, were both freshmen and now have the experience and could break out this year. However, they’ll be led by wing Trey Landers and forward Josh Cunningham. Cunningham is an all-league type player, and he dominates the weaker frontcourts of his opponents. Although the depth isn’t really there, Dayton has a very solid seven to eight man rotation and they can knock off a few big teams.

9. St. Bonaventure

My Take: The Bonnies regress after years of prolonged success with Mark Schmidt at the helm. They lose Matt Mobley and Jaylen Adams, two prolific scorers, and their star players, and they will be a completely different team without them. They do bring back Courtney Stockard and LaDarien Griffin in the frontcourt, as well as adding UNLV transfer Jalen Poyser in the backcourt, but it’s hard to see them competing like they have in years past.

10. Duquesne
11. La Salle
12. Richmond
13. George Washington
14. Fordham

Awards

Player of the Year: Kellan Grady, Davison

Coach of the Year: Travis Ford, Saint Louis

Freshman of the Year: Jermaine Harris, Rhode Island

Newcomer of the Year: Tramaine Isabell, Saint Louis

First Team All A-10

G: Otis Livingston, George Mason

G: Kellan Grady, Davidson
G: Luwane Pipkins, UMass

G: Jordan Goodwin, Saint Louis
F: Courtney Stockard, St. Bonaventure

Second Team All A-10

G: Marcus Evans, VCU

G: Tremaine Isabel, Saint Louis

G: Jon Axel Gudmundsson, Davidson

G: Jeff Dowtin, URI
F: Josh Cunningham, Dayton

American

One of the newer conferences in the country, the AAC has some very solid teams. With great coaches like Gregg Marshall, Mick Cronin, and Fran Dunphy along with new faces Penny Hardaway and Danny Hurley, the league should be very competitive thanks to a deep group of good teams.

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Team Previews

1. UCF

Best Case Scenario: The Knights struggled last year with a horrific offense, largely thanks to  important pieces getting injured. Without star guard BJ Taylor, big man Tacko Fall, and Michigan transfer Aubrey Dawkins, the Knights lacked offensive creation throughout the year. With all three healthy, UCF has a much better outlook this year. Their defense should remain excellent, especially with Fall protecting the rim (for those who don’t know, he’s 7’5”). Taylor and Dawkins should greatly improve the offense, and they will allow players like Dayon Griffin, Caesar DeJesus, and the other wing options to take a step back and fit into a complimentary role which they are more used to. Chad Brown and Collin Smith fill in the frontcourt around Fall, and they provide solid play on both ends. Brown especially is a solid defender and will play a big role. The defense is once again elite, and with a much better offense, UCF breaks into the top 25 and wins the AAC.

Worst Case Scenario: Johnny Dawkins is unable to put together a functional offense, and the team once again struggle on that end. They rely heavily on Taylor and Dawkins to create everything and they can’t handle the burden. I don’t like to predict injuries, but saying that those two and Tacko suffer injuries isn’t anything crazy. They battle injuries all year, and players who aren’t ready to produce are thrust into big roles. The defense isn’t as good as it has been and things really take a turn for the worst in Orlando as the Knights fall out of contention.

My Take: Everything here relies on the health of their three stars, Taylor, Dawkins, and Fall. If they stay healthy, I think they are the best team in the conference. They should be able to take massive strides forward and I think Aubrey Dawkins is being forgotten about after transferring from Michigan where he was in the midst of a sort of breakout sophomore season. He should be excellent as a secondary scorer and I think UCF will be a borderline top 25 year and should have no problem picking up an at-large bid.

2. Cincinnati

Best Case Scenario: After losing a ton of production from the AAC title winners last year in Gary Clark, Kyle Washington, and Jacob Evans, Mick Cronin has a tough task ahead of him. He makes sure the defense stays solid with lots of tough players and Cronin indicating he will move more to a full-court press that will highlight the athleticism of a lot of the pieces. Most of the returning pieces come in the backcourt with Justin Jennifer, Cane Broom, and Jarron Cumberland. Broome especially has a breakout in a more up-tempo system like the one he thrived in at Sacred Heart. Cumberland assumes the role of lead scorer, and he thrives, while Jennifer sets the table for the rest of the team. The rest of the roster is much more inexperienced, but they have a lot of intriguing pieces. Trevor Moore and Keith Williams will assume larger roles as sophomore, alongside Rashawn Fredericks, who is a top JuCo recruit on the wing and he’ll immediately factor into the rotation. Logan Johnson and LaQuill Hardnett make up the other newcomers, and they should also see minutes. The frontcourt has a lot of role players stepping into bigger roles, with Tre Scott, Nysier Brooks, and Mamadou Diarra. The faster style of play helps the more athletic bigs on both side of the court. Cronin has this team bounce back quickly, and Cincy gets themselves to the top of the conference and put themselves in position for an at-large bid.  

Worst Case Scenario: Without large portions of their success last year, the Bearcats struggle this year. Jennifer isn’t able to score or share the floor with Broome given how small that backcourt would be on defense. Broome has issues himself, as he isn’t the best facilitator and he is a ball dominant player. Cumberland isn’t able to develop into a go-to offensive weapon and the offense as a whole lacks scoring and creation. The lack of experience, especially in the frontcourt, causes the entire team to suffer. None of those players can take the next step necessary to be an impact player and without other solid options, too much pressure is put on Broome and Cumberland to score. The defense isn’t as good as year’s past, and without reliable offensive weapons, Cincinnati is a mid-tier AAC team and misses out on March Madness.
My Take: I think Mick Cronin is a guy who doesn’t get enough national recognition for being an elite coach. He’s done an outstanding job with this program, and he’s a big reason I’m betting on them being good. I also really like the Jennifer-Broome-Cumberland trio as well as Rashawn Fredericks being another very good option on the wing. Tre Scott has shown flashes and I think him and Brooks will be good frontcourt options. I expect the Bearcats to compete near the top of the AAC and make the tournament off the bubble.

3. Memphis

Best Case Scenario: There is a new sense of optimism around the program with the hire of Penny Hardaway. He has already brought in high-level talent on the recruiting trail, and he leads his alma mater to a season they haven’t seen since the John Calipari days. He has some good players already on the roster, namely Jeremiah Martin and Kyvon Davenport. Martin will lead the team’s offense, and he could be given more free reign by Penny to get up and down the court as well as penetrate off the dribble. Davenport is a mobile big man who can shoot it fairly well and as well as rebound well. Kareem Brewton and Raynere Thornton also return on the wing where they will provide needed experience, and Mike Parks will do the same in the frontcourt. They also have a top 30 recruiting class, headlined by guards Antwaan Jones, Alex Lomax, and Tyler Harris. Jones has excellent size at 6’6” and he should be able to play with one of his classmates and Martin thanks to his ability to guard up on defense. He’s a very good offensive player and he’ll see major minutes off the bat. Lomax and Harris will also factor in immediately as well as pass-first guards who should be able to get into the paint. Ryan Boyce and David Wingett will also be wing options, although they may struggle to see the floor with so many options. The frontcourt will be boosted by Isaiah Maurice, a JuCo transfer who is highly regarded and should factor in right away. Penny brings immediate success to Memphis, as they win the AAC and crack the top 25 behind a deep and talented roster.

Worst Case Scenario: With inexperience all over the court, from the heavy reliance of freshmen to a head coach with no Division I experience, Memphis has a rough year. The questions surrounding their outside shooting are brought to fruition and with such little spacing, Martin doesn’t have the space he needs to operate. Davenport doesn’t mesh with Hardaway the way he did with Tubby Smith, and he regresses. The freshmen don’t live up to their recruiting pedigree and leave much to be desired from their play. They also struggle on the defensive end as Penny looks lost attempting to coach a college basketball team versus his AAU program and high school team. Because of this, Memphis drops into the bottom half of the conference as fans wonder whether Penny was the right hire.
My Take: I really love Memphis this year. I think questions about Penny’s coaching ability are valid, but I think he’ll be fine and utilize all the talent at his disposal. The returning cast is great, especially Martin and Davenport, and I really like Jones from what I’ve seen. I think going small with Martin, either Lomax or Harris, two of Jones, Brewton and Thornton, and Davenport could be a deadly lineup and I think Memphis will be on the bubble, but I see them making the tournament. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them either win the AAC or finish eighth, but I really like their roster and upside.

4. SMU

My Take: Shake Milton was one of my favorite players last year before his injury, and I think the Mustangs could’ve been a tournament team had he and Jarrey Foster stayed healthy. Foster and Jahmal McMurray should lead this team. They can both space the floor and score at the rim, and Foster is one of the best defenders in the conference. Jimmy Whitt also comes back and will once again do a little bit of everything for the team. They also bring in Nat Dixon to help the backcourt and he should help with depth. The frontcourt, a weakness last year, should be improved. Ethan Chargois showed flashes last year and he takes a big step forward as a sophomore. They also bring in Isiaha Mike from Duquesne along with freshmen Feron Hunt and Jahmar Young. They all should combine to have the Mustangs competing for a tournament berth and I think they will be on the bubble.

5. Houston

My Take: As with their in-state rivals SMU, they lose one of the best players in the conference in Rob Gray. A more underrated loss is Devin Gray, and the loss of those two hurts the Cougars a lot. However, Houston has a solid foundation returning and they should be competing once again in the conference. Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks return and will lead the charge from the wing. They are both great shooters and they’ll space the floor for the team. Gray will be “replaced” by Galen Robinson and DeJon Jarreau, although Gray was so unique it’s impossible to replace what he did. Robinson is a pass first, game manager type and he’ll provide stability in the backcourt. Jarreau is a transfer from UMass and he’ll provide the more dynamic, playmaking aspects that are needed for the Cougs. They also bring in Nate Hinson, one of the top recruits in the country, and their backcourt should be a strength. The frontcourt has a lot of questions, and because of that, I don’t think they can make the tournament, although they should be on the bubble for most of the season.

6. UConn

My Take: The Huskies hit a home run with the hire of Danny Hurley from Rhode Island. He’s got one of the highest ceilings in the conference, with a star in Jalen Adams along with Alterique Gilbert and Christian Vital. They’ll need to stay healthy and get more consistent, but if they can, UConn will be really good. Brandon Adams and Sidney Wilson should also immediately factor into the team as will Tarin Smith, a transfer. I don’t think there is really anything in the frontcourt to get excited about, and I’m not trusting the health of that backcourt, especially Gilbert, so I think they’ll be a team that always leaves you wanting more.  

7. Temple

My Take: Temple brings back two really good players in Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston, and they should both have great years for the Owls. Nate Pierre-Louis is someone I think can break out in the backcourt, along with JP Moorman. After that, I don’t see a ton of talent on this roster, and I think the quality of depth could be a pretty big issue for them this season. It’s also Fran Dunphy’s last season, so I could see a “win it for Fran” type situation developing, but I’m not a huge fan of the roster and I don’t see them getting into the tournament picture.

8. Wichita State

My Take: The Shockers have been wildly successful over the last few seasons under Gregg Marshall, but things could change this year. They lose basically their entire rotation, and will rely heavily on freshmen this year. Marshall has an eye for talent, and the new recruits should be relied on heavily to produce. I don’t know that much about them, although JuCo recruit Ricky Torres has been given glowing reviews, and he should start as the point guard. Samajae Haynes-Jones and Markis McDuffie are really the only returning players, and they’ll both be pretty heavily featured, McDuffie is really good, and Marshall is an elite coach, but I just can’t really see this team reaching the heights of years past.

9. Tusla
10. East Carolina
11. USF
12. Tulane

Awards

Player of the Year: Jarron Cumberland, Cincinnati
Coach of the Year: Johnny Dawkins, UCF

Freshman of the Year: Antwaan Jones, Memphis

Newcomer of the Year: Aubrey Dawkins, UCF

First Team All AAC

G: Corey Davis, Houston
G: BJ Taylor, UCF
G: Jarron Cumberland, Cincinnati
F: Jarrey Foster, SMU

F: Marcus McDuffie, Wichita State

Second Team All AAC

G: Jalen Adams, UConn
G: Jeremiah Martin, Memphis
G: Quinton Rose, Temple

G: Jahmal McMurray, SMU

F: Kyvon Davenport, Memphis

Mountain West

They have been down recently, and haven’t been a multi-bid league as much as they were in the past, but the conference is on the upswing, with teams Nevada and San Diego State winning tournament games last year and programs like New Mexico, UNLV, and Boise State all having consistent runs of success. Look for the MWC to once again be very good.

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Team Previews

1. Nevada

Best Case Scenario: The Wolf Pack are fresh off a deep run in the NCAA Tournament and there’s reason to believe they’ll be even better this season. They only lose Kendall Stephens from last year’s core, and they have a lot of talent coming in. But first, their returning cast is going to be very good. The Martin twins, Caleb and Cody, return to school after flirting with the NBA, and they exemplify everything Nevada wants to do. They are very athletic, with the ability to play multiple positions on both ends of the floor and they are incredibly versatile. Caleb is more of a pure scorer while Cody is more of a jack-of-all-trades, and he could play point guard this season despite being 6’7”. Even if he doesn’t Lindsey Drew will likely play there once he recovers from his Achilles injury. He’s a pass first player, who also happens to be 6’4” and an excellent defender. Returning in the frontcourt is Jordan Caroline, who despite being the same height as the Martins, played center for Eric Musselman last year, and is an excellent rebounder. He’ll be able to play forward more this season, thanks to the new additions. Nevada bolstered it frontcourt with the additions of Trey Porter- a skilled grad transfer from Old Dominion who can protect the rim and shoot from deep- and five star prospect Jordan Brown- a skilled low post player. They also have 4 players who sat out last season after transferring in. Nisre Zouzoua, Jazz Johnson, Tre’Shawn Thurman, and Corey Henson all scored over 13 points a game at their previous destination, and they all figure to have roles this year. With a ridiculously deep roster, Nevada challenges for the title of #1 overall and go undefeated in conference play.

Worst Case Scenario: The roster actually has too much talent. There are a lot of players expecting to have big roles this season, and it stands to reason a good amount of the newcomers are disappointed with their role. When they are on the court, they are trying to get up as many shots as possible, and the team never really gels. Drew doesn’t recover from his injury as expected, and the point guard position is a bit of a question mark. The loss of Kendall Stephens creates floor spacing concerns, and the lanes are clogged, which limits what Nevada likes to do. Despite all of the talent, Nevada doesn’t live up to the hype and falls out of the top 25 and the top spot in the Mountain West.
My Take: Nevada may be my favorite team in the country. They have so much depth and versatility, and it’s easy to get carried away imaging the different lineups Eric Musselman has at his disposal. Both of the Martins are studs, and I think Brown will give this team a dimension they didn’t have last year. They should be a top 5 team nationally and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them at #1 at some point during the season.

2. San Diego State

Best Case Scenario: The Aztecs lost a heartbreaker to Houston in the NCAA Tournament, but they bounce back quickly. Despite the loss of Malik Pope, Trey Kell, and Max Montana, San Diego State picks up where they left off last year, when the won the Mountain West tournament. The team is being placed in the hands of Devin Watson, a solid point guard that will balance getting his teammates involved with his own scoring. They also return two players with massive potential in Matt Mitchell and Jalen McDaniels. They are both long and athletic forwards, and they both breakout in a big way this year. Jeremy Henson is another solid player who can shoot it from deep, an area of weakness for the Aztecs, and freshmen Ed Chang and Nathan Mensah should contribute immediately. With a few other freshmen contributing as depth pieces, San Diego State shocks the college basketball world by overtaking  Nevada in the Mountain West and becoming a top 25 team.

Worst Case Scenario: The pieces lost last season were by no means insignificant, as Kell was the primary creator, Pope the paint protector and best post player, and Montana a floor spacer. There aren’t any replacements for them on the roster and they are sorely missed. Watson isn’t able to become an improved scorer, and Henson shoots like he did last season, well under 30%. Neither Mitchell nor McDaniels can establish themselves as a premier player, and San Diego State is lost on the offensive end. The freshman class is worse than expected and there is little depth or bench scoring. Brian Doucher has a tough second season in charge and San Diego State plays their way out of at large consideration.
My Take: I’m a pretty big fan of this team. I’m a huge believer in both Mitchell and McDaniels and I think those two could emerge as a near unstoppable duo, especially for Mountain West opponents. Watson is a good not great player, but he’s vitally important to this team. I also really like Ed Chang and I think he could emerge as another wing/forward option in San Diego. I think this is an at-large team and their games with Nevada figure to be appointment televsion.

3. New Mexico

My Take: Before the injury to JaQuan Lyle, I was all in on New Mexico. I thought he would fit like a glove with that roster and the style of play, but alas, he will miss the entire season. That means point guard play will be a question mark, which I think limits the ceiling for the Lobos. Still, I’ve heard good things about Drue Drinnon, and he could prove to be even better than Lyle given everything off the court. However, he’ll be a true freshman and I don’t know how he’ll play. With Anthony Mathis and Makuach Maluach back, they should once again be excellent shooting the three, and UConn transfer Vance Jackson will only add to that potency. The frontcourt will depend on the play of Carlton Bragg, who comes in from Kansas by way of Arizona State, and although he won’t be eligible until December, he could be the most talented player in the entire conference. If he can live up to the potential he’s displayed in the past, he can single-handedly alter this team’s trajectory. They should be in contention for an at-large bid and battle with every team in the conference.

4. Boise State

My Take: Chandler Hutchinson was one of the best kept secrets in the country last year, and his loss will hit the Broncos hard. However, there is certainly cause for optimism in Boise this year. Their junior class of Alex Hobbs, Marcus Dickinson, and Justinian Jessup will take on expanded roles this year. I really like Hobbs and Jessup in particular, and I think Jessup breaks out in a big way this year. He’s a knockdown shooter and I think he’ll shine in an expanded role. They bring in two other wings in Roderick Williams and Jaycson BeReal who should make immediate impacts and provide some more defensive versatility to the Broncos. I think this will be a really good team, but not one that will be an at-large candidate.

5. Colorado State

My Take: Niko Medved was one of the more underrated hires in college basketball this offseason, and I think he’ll elevate the Rams to new heights. He’s got one of the best big men in the conference in Nico Carvacho. He’s a nightly double-double threat and he’s a stellar rebounder. They also feature some talented players on the wing with Kris Martin and freshman Adam Thistlewood, along with a backcourt led by JD Paige and Hyron Edwards. I’m excited to see what Martin, a transfer from Oral Roberts, Thistlewood, and Edwards- from Texas Tech- can do in their first season. I think they’ll make this team a tough one to play for any team in the Mountain West.

6. UNLV

My Take: The Runnin Rebels had a good year last season, but I don’t love their roster this season. Shakur Juiston should be great again, and he’ll lead the team on both ends. Other than that, I don’t really love anyone on the team. The two most intriguing players to me are Noah Robotham from Akron and Bryce Hamilton, a freshman guard. Those two could be excellent in the backcourt, and give UNLV some creation and scoring options which they lack. Other than that, I’m pretty low on them and I don’t think they’ll come close to March Madness.

7. Fresno State
8. Wyoming
9. Utah State

My Take: This is for all three of the teams listed above. They all have all-conference level players in Deshon Taylor, Justin James, and Sam Merrill respectively, and they’ll be hoping for breakouts from role players to help compliment those stars. In my opinion, Fresno State has the best one in New Mexico State transfer Braxton Huggins, and the best roster overall, but whichever team has the best rotation around their star will finish the highest and could knock off the elites of the conference on any given night.

10. Air Force
11. San Jose State

Awards

Player of the Year: Caleb Martin, Nevada

Coach of the Year: Eric Musselman, Nevada

Freshman of the Year: Jordan Brown, Nevada

Newcomer of the Year: Vance Jackson, New Mexico

First Team All Mountain West

G: Caleb Martin. Nevada
G: Justin James, Wyoming

G: Deshon Taylor, Fresno State
F: Jordan Carolina, Nevada
F: Cody Martin, Nevada

Second Team All Mountain West

G: Devin Watson, San Diego State
G: Sam Merrill, Utah State
G: Vance Jackson, New Mexico
F: Jaden McDaniels, San Diego State
F: Nico Carvacho, Colorado State

Missouri Valley

The conference was a perennial powerhouse when it had teams like Wichita State playing in it, but after conference realignment, it’s struggled. A little program from Chicago put them back on the map with a tournament run, and the conference should be very good once again this season.

3MW: here CBB: here MMM: here

Team Previews

1. Illinois State

Best Case Scenario: The Redbirds were probably snubbed from the tournament two seasons ago, but they are in a really good position to make it this year. The triumvirate of Malik Yarborough, Keyshawn Evans, and Phil Fayne is as good as mid-major, and they’ll lead the team on both ends of the floor. Dan Mueller’s group figures to be very good defensively with lots of switchable pieces and creative defensive schemes that will keep their opponents off balance. Offensively, those three will be responsible for most of the scoring after all scoring over 15 points a game last year. Zach Copeland and William Tinsley will space the floor, giving the aforementioned trio as much room as they need to attack the rim. With players such as Taylor Bruninga, Matt Chastain, and Isaac Gassman will provide depth and help the Redbirds be an at-large caliber team and win the Valley.

Worst Case Scenario: Yarborough has a lot of issues, not all on the court. Not only is he a shaky shooter and poor decision maker when on the court, but he’s been suspended prior to the season. He doesn’t clean up his act and the Redbirds lose a key contributor. While Evans and Fayne step up in his absence, no one else does. There is also a dearth of quality bigs, and rebounding and interior defense are a problem all season. There is also a problem with depth and Illinois State doesn’t have the quality of player further down their roster to compete in a tougher MVC, and their resume isn’t strong enough to warrant an at-large bid.
My Take: I think the Redbirds have the most talented roster in the league. Are there some serious questions surrounding it? Sure, but I think in the end, the talent will win out. The trio of Yarborough, when eligible, Evans, and Fayne is the best in the league, no doubt, and I think Copeland will be a welcome addition as another long range sniper. They should contend for not only the league but at-large consideration.

2. Loyola-Chicago

Best Case Scenario: Perhaps you heard about them last year? They had a decent showing in the NCAA Tournament, and will look to continue riding the momentum from their Final Four run. They return MVC Player of the Year Clayton Custer, who builds on his great season, and he will lead the charge offensively with excellent shot making ability and good facilitation skills. They also return Cameron Krutwig, who can bang around with just about anyone, and he should improve as a sophomore. Marques Townes will be relied on to provide wing scoring and good defense, along with Lucas Williamson, who will light it up from deep. They also add New Mexico transfer Aher Uguak, who should slot into the starting lineup thanks to his great versatility on both ends. That starting five may be the best in the conference, and the Ramblers are able to have another stellar season by once again winning the Missouri Valley and having an at-large resume.

Worst Case Scenario: For as good as Porter Moser’s group was last season, and they were absolutely excellent, their season did get overblown by their run to the Final Four. They were Clayton Custer shot taking the wrong bounce or some Ja'Quan Newton free throws away from not making it out of the first weekend. It also can’t be overstated how big the losses they suffered are. Aundre Jackson and Donte Ingram were key on the wing thanks to their offensive and defensive versatility and the way they perfectly fit into this offensive system. Ben Richardson was also huge, as a three point marksman and great defender. They will be hard to overcome, and lots of people, particularly the ones giving them top 25 votes, are overlooking them with Sister Jean-tinted glasses. They take a step back, and miss out on March this year.
My Take: As I said, Loyola was great last year, but they suffered significant losses and I think they will be harder to overcome than many people realize. However, I still think Loyola will contend for the tournament. I really do love that starting five, and I think they can play with most teams in the country. I don’t think the depth is there, especially compared to last year, and ranking them inside the top 25 is lunacy in my book, but I think they’ll be a bubble team this year, and I think they’ll sneak in.

3. Southern Illinois

My Take: The Salukis return almost everyone from last year’s team which finished second in the Valley. They’ve got two talented bigs in Thik Bol and Kavion Pippen who will improve the interior defense which struggled last year. They also have four talented guards in Aaron Cook, Sean Lloyd, Armon Fletcher, and Marcus Bartley who are all good defensively and should force turnovers at a high level. I’m a big fan of Cook and especially Fletcher, who is very talented offensively. They should once again be very good and could push their way into a top 2 spot and maybe even the NCAA Tournament.

4. Northern Iowa

My Take: The Panthers welcome top 100 freshman AJ Green to run the point for them this year, and he should be a difference maker right away. He’ll be joined by a perimeter orientated core of Wyatt Lohaus, Trae Berhow, Isaiah Brown, and Tywhon Pickford. I really liked Berhow at Pepperdine and he should be good here as well, and I’m a big fan of Pickford as well. The interior is pretty barren unless either Austin Phyfe or Shandon Goldman can become something noteworthy. There’s a lot of talent on this roster, and they should be good enough to overcome their frontcourt issues and compete in the Missouri Valley.

5. Indiana State

My Take: Larry Bird’s alumnus could sneakily be a contender to win the Valley this year if things go their way. They have a star in the backcourt in Jordan Barnes and a developing combo of Tyreke Key and Clayton Hughes. They also add two high-major caliber guards in Cooper Neese from Butler and Christian Williams from Iowa. They should step in and contribute as soon as they are eligible, and give the Sycamore’s one of the conference’s most potent offenses. They have a few uninspiring options in the frontcourt, but if they can provide solid rebounding and rim protection, then Indiana State could have a really good year and maybe knock off a bigger name team during Arch Madness.

6. Bradley
7. Missouri State
8. Valpo
9. Drake
10. Evansville

Awards

Player of the Year: Malik Yarbrough, Illinois State

Coach of the Year: Barry Hinson, Southern Illinois

Freshman of the Year: AJ Green, Northern Iowa

Newcomer of the Year: AJ Green, Northern Iowa

First Team All Missouri Valley

G: Clayton Custer, Loyola Chicago
G: Armon Fletcher, Southern Illinois
F: Malik Yarbrough, Illinois State
F: Phil Fayne, Illinois State
F: Cameron Krutwig, Loyola Chicago

Second Team All Missouri Valley

G: Jordan Barnes, Indiana State
G: Keyshawn Evans, Illinois State
G: AJ Green, Northern Iowa
F: Tywhon Pickford, Northern Iowa
F: Elijah Childs, Bradley

West Coast Conference

This conference stays nationally relevant for 3 reasons: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, and BYU. They are all excellent programs, but most of you reading this probably couldn’t name two others in this conference with confidence. Those three will once again be good and the rest will once again be not so good.

3MW: here CBB: here MMM: here

Team Previews

1. Gonzaga

Best Case Scenario: The Bulldogs have a deep and extremely talented roster, and they absolutely dominate the WCC. Starting with the backcourt, senior Josh Perkins will handle the point guard duties. He can shoot it well from deep, but drops into more of a facilitation role this year. He’ll be joined by Geno Crandall, a transfer from North Dakota, who is a talented scorer and he’ll be a factor off the bench providing a scoring punch. Zach Norvell had an excellent run down the stretch, and he fully breaks out as a sophomore. He is a pure scorer from all three levels, and plays tough defense, making him one of the best players on the team. Corey Kispert will provide shooting from deep and freshman Greg Foster could also see minutes. For as good as the backcourt is, the frontcourt might just be better. The trio of Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke, and Killian Tillie proves to be the best in the nation. Hachimura is an athletic wing with massive potential, and he fully breaks out this year. Clarke is a transfer from San Jose State and he’s a great player on the glass and in the post. Tillie is a great shooter and excellent shot blocker, and one of the best centers in the nation. Unfortunately, he’s injured to start the season, but fear not, as freshman Filip Petrusev is cut from the same cloth as Tillie and should fill in for him seamlessly. They won’t face any competition in this conference, and Gonzaga goes undefeated in conference play on their way to the #1 ranking in the country.

Worst Case Scenario: Honestly, it’s not that bad. They’re a top 25 lock and it’d take an act of God to keep them out of the top spot in the conference. Tillie’s injury impacts the team in a big way, and he takes a while to recover. Petrusev isn’t ready to play major minutes, and neither is Crandell since he enrolled late. They struggle through their non-conference schedule, which is admittedly very tough. Hachimura doesn’t develop much offensively, still relying heavily on his athleticism to make plays for him. They have an excellent core, but the depth doesn’t emerge and they end up in the back half of the top 25.
My Take: It’s honestly pretty unfair to the rest of this league that they have to play a team of this caliber. They are a legitimate national title contender and I wouldn’t be surprised if they spend a solid portion of the year ranked #1. The injury of Killian Tillie is really tough, because he’ll be gone for most of their very challenging non-conference slate. But, I’m still not that worried about the Zags. Norvell is one of the best scorers in the country, they have a loaded frontcourt with Hachimura, Clarke, and Petrusev while Tillie is out, and Perkins will provide a steady hand leading the ship with Crandall providing a scoring punch off the bench. I’ve also heard really good things about guard Joel Ayayi, and I can definitely see him playing good minutes along with Foster. This is a no doubt top 5 team for me, and maybe the best in the country.

2. BYU

My Take: The Cougs are actually going to be really good this year. They have Yoeli Childs, who is legit in the frontcourt, along with a strong backout of TJ Haws and Nick Emery. Connor Harding is back from his mission trip, and he should be ready to make an immediate impact on the wing. All three can shoot the ball well, which helps out Childs by giving him space to operate on the block. They should also have a good amount of depth with players like Zac Seljaas, Luke Worthington, and Gavin Baxter, and I think this is a tournament team and one that might just be able to steal a game from Gonzaga.

3. St Marys

My Take: Despite losing star players Jock Landale and Emmett Naar, I’m actually pretty high on St Mary’s this year. I love Jordan Ford and I think he’ll be really good along with Tanner Krebs. Those two should be major scoring threats, especially from deep. I also think the point guard position could be filled pretty quickly by Kristers Zoriks and Alex Mudronja, two guards with size who should be good distributors and could be plus defenders from day 1. Aaron Menzies is huge up front, and along with Malik Fitts, those two could be a formidable duo. I don’t love the role players enough to say they’ll make the tournament, but I think they’ll be better than many expect.

4. San Francisco

My Take: The Dons feature a deep and talented roster that should be a challenge for every team in the conference. The backcourt trio of Charles Minlend, Jordan Ratinho, and All-Name First Team Frankie Ferrari will be excellent. Ferrari is the orchestrater of the offense and will set up his teammates, Minland can create his own shot off the dribble unlike any other player on the team, and Ratinho is a knockdown shooter. There are plenty of frontcourt options, and they should be league average. They have the makings of a team that can knock off one of the big boys in the WCC.

5. Pacific
6. San Diego
7. Pepperdine

My Take: Quite honestly, the Waves will probably be pretty bad this year. However, I wanted to highlight them for one reason. Lorenzo Romar has done a very good job of bringing in talent already, and I think Pepperdine could be a legitimate threat in a year or two. Colbey Ross was a stud as a freshman and he’ll be great once again, and they bring in Kessler Edwards, a fairly highly touted recruit, who joins his talented brother Kameron. They also have MJ Cage and Keith Smith committed as transfer from Oregon. This is a team to watch for the future.

8. Santa Clara
9. Loyola Marymount
10. Portland

Awards

Player of the Year: Yoeli Childs, BYU

Coach of the Year: Mark Few, Gonzaga

Freshman of the Year: Filip Petrusev, Gonzaga

Newcomer of the Year: Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga

First Team All West Coast

G: Zach Norvell, Gonzaga

G: Jordan Ford, Saint Mary’s
G: KJ Feagin, Santa Clara

F: Killian Tillie, Gonzaga
F: Yoeli Childs, BYU

Second Team All West Coast

G: Colbey Ross, Pepperdine

G: Frankie Ferrari, San Francisco
F: Isaiah Pineiro, San Diego
F: Rui Hachimura, Gonzaga
F: Brandon Clarke, Gonzaga