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Thoughts on the First Weekend

Well, what a tournament this has been already. My bracket started strong, I only had two losses on the first day, but then nine on Friday and it just got worse from there. It was a rough one, but the madness has been incredible and bracket be damned I'll take some incredible games and shocking upsets over winning my bracket pool. I've got some thoughts on the tournament thus far, and I'd figured that I would share them here. One thing first, my computer just got fixed today, so I was unable to release my previews for all the regions. You'll probably pick up on my thoughts through this post and others, but I will say my Final Four is Cincinnati, North Carolina, Texas Tech, and Kansas, with the Jayhawks defeating the Bearcats in the final, so that isn't looking great. But without further ado, let's get into my thoughts.
1. The tournament started off with a bang
The first game of the tournament was a fun one, with Rhode Island knocking off Trae Young and Oklahoma in overtime. Young had his typical great game, scoring 28 points, including 15 of his teams last 17, with 7 assists and 5 rebounds. As per usual, the problem for Oklahoma was Young's supporting cast. Only one other player scored in double digits, Jamuni McNeace had 14 points, and outside of Young they made just one three. They dominated the boards, outrebounding URI by 13, but still weren't able to win, probably on account of having 8 more turnovers than the Rams. Meanwhile, Rhode Island had 4 players in double digits, with E.C. Matthews leading the way with 16 points. He hit some big shots, including two threes in overtime to put the Rams ahead for good. Rhode Island ultimately had the more complete team, and too k down the freshman phenom. This was almost certainly Young's last college game, and watching him has been pure joy. There were games where he would take shots from the logo and you would think they're going in because of how hot he was. He was something else and I went out of my way to watch as much as Oklahoma this season just to see Trae play.
2. The almost-upsets
What will probably be lost in all of the great games from this tournament were all the mid-majors that almost pulled off upsets. First off was UNC-Greensboro, who almost knocked off Gonzaga. They were leading as late as under one minute, when they held a 64-62 lead. The Zags closed the game on a 6-0 run, ending the upset bid from the Spartans. How good of a coach is Wes Miller though? He's done a superb job with his program, and has gotten some incredible players to come to his team, such as junior guards Francis Alonso and Demetrius Troy, and sophomore big James Dickey. His full-court press gave the Zags some trouble, and came within a few made shots of knocking off one of the premier programs in the country. At the same time as that game, UPenn was hanging around with Kansas. While the Jayhawks ended up pulling away, the Quakers were in the game for a while, and Kansas had to put big man Udoka Azubuike into the game, who was nursing a foot injury and Bill Self said he would only play in an emergency. South Dakota State was another team that almost pulled off a shocker against Ohio State, losing 81-73. It was back and forth all game, with each team going on runs at various points, and the Jackrabbits evened it up at 70 with 2 minutes left to play. Then, they fouled shooter Kam Williams while shooting threes on back-to-back possessions. It was a poor defensive showing, with three Ohio State players scoring over 20, although none equaled the scoring output of the Dauminator, Mike Daum. He had 27 points, including dropping 9-20 from the field and 5-10 from three, and freshman David Jenkins had 16 as well. The Jackrabbits should be back next year, and if their defense improves, they could be a serious threat next March. The Davidson Wildcats gave Kentucky a tough battle, losing by just 5 points. This game even when superstar forward Peyton Aldridge only had 12 points on 4-17 shooting. They were lead by long-range sniper Jon Axel Gudmundsson, who shot 6-11 from deep on his way to 21 points. Steven F. Austin almost took down Texas Tech keeping it close for the entire game, and the 10 point loss was less indicative the game. It was a one-point game for most of the second half, and the Red Raiders pulled away late thanks to some clutch shots from Kennan Evans, who scored 23 points. The Lumberjacks had 4 players in double-digits, and almost beat the Red Raiders thanks to some strong defense.
3. Game of the tournament? 
My pick for game of the first round was San Diego State versus Houston. Such an exciting back and forth affair, and towards the end it seemed as if either team could win. With a minute left, Devin Watson drained a 3 to tie the game up for the Aztecs. The next time down the floor, Rob Gray hit a three for the Cougars to put them back up three. Devin Watson answered with another three, tying the game once again. With the game coming down the wire, Houston gave the ball to their star Rob Gray, who drove into the lane and made an acrobatic layup through two San Diego State players, going up and under to make score with just two seconds left to win the game. When thinking about the stars in March, Rob Gray doesn't get as much attention as some of the other stars. But he is just as good, scoring 39 points and knocked down some huge shots, including the game winner, and also got 8 rebounds, basically willing Houston to a victory. The Aztecs kept it close, making sure it came down to the end and proving a worthy adversary for the Cougars.
4. How did we not see this coming?
Honestly, I'm a bit disappointed that I didn't pick Buffalo. I honestly should have seen the fact that the Bulls would knock off Arizona. The Wildcats have an absolutely dreadful defensive backcourt and Buffalo has a bunch of shooters who stretch the floor and they have some excellent guards on offense. They shot 50% from downtown and Arizona seemed as if they weren't even interested in guarding anyone. I also fell in love with DeAndre Ayton and I thought he would absolutely dominate the undersized Buffalo frontline, and he played well enough, getting a double double but it seemed like Arizona didn't want to give him the ball for most of the game. Instead, they were content to just have their guards take poor shots as they tried to bring back the entire deficit in one shot. Arizona continued to give up easy baskets and they never made the proper adjustments on either side of the ball to win the game. It just seemed as if the Wildcats had no interest in winning this game and Buffalo made them pay. Wes Clark simply couldn't be stopped, scoring 25, Jeremy Harris has 23, C.J. Massinburg had 19 and it was a rout.
5. The 4-13 is the new 5-12
For the first time in what seems like forever, this tournament did not feature a 5-12 upset. Ohio State, Clemson, Kentucky, and West Virginia all dispatched of their opponents. There was certainly a large portion of the population who had at least one of those teams losing, including myself, as I had all but Kentucky falling. I thought the Jackrabbits would be able to overwhelem the Buckeyes, New Mexico State's defennse would stop Clemson, especially without Devonte' Grantham, and the stout Murray State backcourt of Ja Morant and Jonathon Stark would be able to handle the West Virginia pressure and get some easy buckets as a result. Instead, they all lost and the 13 seeds picked up the slack. Two of the four won while the others lost by a combined 8 points. Buffalo was able to dispatch Arizona, as mentioned above, and Marshall followed a similar path to success against Wichita State, in what essentially became a shootout between Jon Elmore for the Thundering Herd and Connor Frankamp for the Shockers. Each finished with 27 points, but Marshall was able to take advantage of one of Gregg Marshall's worst defensive teams en route to a 81-75 victory. As also mentioned above, Gonzaga had a scare versus UNC-Greensboro, and Auburn almost lost to Charleston, only pulling off a 62-58 victory. I'm not sure what this means going forward in March, but I think it shows how good mid-majors are becoming with their ability to knock off some of the nations best teams.
6. So that Virginia game was something
Yes folks, it has finally happened. A 16 seed has defeated a 1 seed. The UMBC Retrievers knocked off the Virginia Cavaliers, the number one overall seed, 74-54, making history in the process. I'm honestly still shocked and I can't believe this has actually happened. I thought that UMBC would have the best shot out of any 16 seed in the field this year to pull off an upset for two reasons: Jairus Lyles and Ryan Odom. Lyles is the star of the Retrievers, who scored 18.9 PPG during the season and 28 against Virginia. Odom is the coach of UMBC and the son of Dave Odom, who used to coach Wake Forest during the Tim Duncan days and South Carolina. He has done an excellent job with the Retrievers and he would be near the top of my list if I were a program in need of a coach. Meanwhile, this one game isn't a reflection on the Hoos. Virignia has been excellent all season and were fully deserving of being the #1 overall seed. Coming into the tournament, the question was about Virginia's offense now that DeAndre Hunter was injured. Those concerns were apparently justified, as they only scored 54 and only made 41.1% of shots and were a dismal 18.2% from three. Meanwhile, all of UMBC's shots seemed to be falling, making 54.2% and shot 50% from three. That's a great game for any team, and the Retrievers used it to their advantage. Given that they only scored 43 against Kansas State, I think it's fair to say that this was more of a lucky game than anything else.
7. Sister Jean is a legend
The 98 year old team chaplain for Loyola-Chicago has emerged as a national sensation during the Ramblers tournament run. She has provided numerous excellent quotes(she has her own team losing in the Sweet 16 in her bracket and when asked about being a national star, she politely corrected the reporter, since she has blown up internationally) and her team has been playing incredibly. I have to think it's her prayers that have gotten the Ramblers into the Sweet 16. While they are a very good team, they have won their two games on buzzer beaters. Against Miami, the Hurricane's freshman star Lonnie Walker missed a free throw despite being a 75% shooter from the line on the year, leading to Loyola's Donte Ingram draining a three from the logo with just .3 seconds left, elevating them to a 64-62 win. Then in the Round of 32 against Tennessee, the Ramblers almost lost the ball out of bounds while down 1, but it deflected off of Admiral Schofield of the Volunteers, leaving 10 seconds on the clock. Clayton Custer got the ball in his hands, drove right, and took a pull up two that bounced around the rim before falling, giving the Ramblers a 63-63 victory.. Those two miracle shots helped Loyola-Chicago get to the Sweet Sixteen where they will play 7 seed Nevada. Is Sister Jean responsible for her team's good fortune? I like to think so.
8. It's Comeback Season
How about some of the comebacks we saw over the first four days. Nevada was at the center of a lot of the action. In their opening bout against Texas, the Wolf Pack trailed by as many as 14 before a Jordan Caroline free throw with three seconds left evened the game up at 68 to send it to overtime. They quickly fell behind, but finished on a 10-2 run, winning 87-83. They then took on Cincinnati, and found themselves in an even bigger hole. The Bearcats had a 20 point lead at the under-12 TV timeout. I won't lie, I turned this game off. No way Nevada comes back. They of course ended the game on a 32-8 run led by a 25 point performance by Cody Martin, and Josh Hall got an offensive rebound with 9.1 seconds left and made his layup to give Nevada a 75-73 win. I'm not really too sure if this qualifies as a comeback, but how about Jordan Poole? Michigan barely lead during their contest against Houston, and things weren't looking good for the Wolverines after Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman missed a game-tying layup with 10 seconds left. They were forced to foul Devin Davis, who was 3-4 from the line down the stretch. He proceeded to miss both of his foul shots and Michigan had one last chance. They got the ball up the court, and it found the hands of freshman Jordan Poole, who took a three as time expired. Splash. Wolverines win. Go Blue!
9. Unexpected Blowouts
There were two games in the second round that had completely unexpected results. First, North Carolina lost by 21 to Texas A&M. The Aggies had ton of potential all season, but hadn't been able to put it all together. They started SEC play 0-5 and Robert Williams hadn't played well for most of the season. Then they came out against the Tar Heels and absolutely demolished them, tearing them apart on the interior, where Williams and center Tyler Davis combined for 26 points and 22 rebounds. North Carolina was unusually dreadful on the offensive end, making just 33.3% of shots and 20% of threes. It was one of their worst performances of the season and it came at the worst possible time. Later that day, Clemson came out and absolutely demolished Auburn in some Tiger on Tiger violence. Clemson won 84-53 in a game that at one point they lead by 40. I was very low on the Tigers coming into the tournament because of the loss of Devonte' Grantham to injury, but they have sure proved me wrong by going out and dominating Auburn, who simply couldn't get going in the tournament.
10. What to expect from here on out
It's honestly hard to say. This tournament has been one of parity, and as I predicted, the upsets began to emerge in the second round, since there wasn't a lot of separation between the good and great teams, or the great and the elite. Going region by region, I'll give some quick predictions. In the South, Kentucky looks to be the clear favorite, having to play Kansas State and the winner of Nevada and Loyola-Chicago for their spot in the Final Four. I think Nevada would give them the most trouble, but I don't think they have the depth to compete with the Wildcats, so I think Kentucky advances. In the West, a lot depends on the play of Texas A&M. If the Aggies can continue to play at this high level, I can see them getting to the Final Four. To do that, they would have to beat Michigan, who like UNC lack size on the interior so Williams and Davis could have big games. I think John Beilein will have a game plan ready to go and the Wolverines will execute offensively to win, while Gonzaga has no problem dispatching of the Seminoles. In what should be another close game, I think Michigan finally bows out to the Bulldogs, but there are three teams here who could advance. The East is the chalkiest region, seeing 1 seed Villanova go up against 5 seed West Virginia and 3 seed Texas Tech play 2 seed Purdue. Villanova has been a buzz saw, winning their two games by an average of 24.5 points, and they have the ball handling abilities to knock off the Mountaineers. Meanwhile, I still like Texas Tech to knock off Purdue thanks to their excellent defense and balanced scoring. The loss of Issac Haas is killer for the Boilermakers as Matt Haarms isn't ready to play significant minutes in the frontcourt, and I think he can be abused by the Red Raiders' bigs playing physically. In the Elite Eight, if there is one team who can slow down Nova, it's the Red Raiders thanks to a strong defensive presence. I think Villanova has to cool off at some point, and it is most likely to be against Texas Tech. That being said, they have been too good recently so I'm calling an audible and throwing the Wildcats into the Final Four, but this region could honestly go in any direction. Finally, the Midwest has two main contenders. With all due respect to Clemson and Syracuse, each of whom has done an excellent job in getting to this point, I can't see them beating Kansas or Duke respectively. That leaves two of the best teams in the tournament facing off, and I think Kansas has the personnel to knock of the Blue Devils. North Carolina gave an excellent blueprint for how to beat them in the ACC semifinals, and I think LaGerald Vick can play that Theo Pinson role in the middle of the zone for Kansas and help them advance.
Official Final Four Predictions: Kentucky-Gonzaga, Villanova-Kansas
If not, then: Nevada-Michigan, Texas Tech-Duke
Full anarchy: Loyola-Chicago-Florida State, West Virginia-Syracuse

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