The tournament is finally here! This has been an exciting season full of upsets, stars players, FBI investigations, and everything in between. Most bracket pools close on Thursday, when casual fans start to take interest, but there are two games on both Tuesday and Wednesday night for you to enjoy. For those wondering, I think the committee missed on Syracuse over USC, but in the end the bracket looks good, and there are plenty of excellent matchups to get excited for, including the First Four in Dayton, which is what I’m here to breakdown.
Radford vs LIU-Brooklyn
The Skinny
This game could be a microcosm of the entire tournament, as it features a classic battle of offense versus defense. The Higlanders of Radford are one of the nation’s best defensive teams, holidng their opponents to just 64.4 points per game, the 14th lowest total in the nation. Meanwhile, LIU has a high powered offense, averaging 77.5 points per game on the season. Both teams use a press, but while the Blackbirds like to push the pace, Radford prefers to play at a slow tempo on offense. This is not good news for either team, as they both turn the ball over a lot, LIU-Brooklyn avergaes 14.1 turnovers a game, while Radford gives it away 12.1 times a contest.
Key Matchup: Ed Polite Jr vs Raiquan Clark
Each team employs a stretch four, each of whom likes to step away from the basket and drive against slower bigs. First for Radford, 6’5” junior Ed Polite is the team’s leading scorer with 13.5 points per game. He excels at attacking the rim, shooting 54.5% from inside the arc, and he is an excellent rebounder, grabbing 7.7 boards a game. Polite is also an excellent defender who normally draws the opponents best frontcourt player, which in the case of the Blackbirds is Clark. Raiquan is a 6’6” junior who thrives in LIU’s up tempo offense, scoring 17.4 points per game. He is excellent at creating penetration and makes his shots at a 55.7% clip. Like Polite, he is also active on the glass. He gets 7.1 rebounds a game, with 2.1 coming om the offensive end. He hasn’t faced many players like Polite, who have the size, length, and athleticism to keep him in check, and their battle could end up deciding the game.
Prediction
In what should be a close game, I’m going to give the edge to Radford. Their press should feast on the Blackbirds high turnover rate, and I think they will win the pace of play battle, forcing LIU into more half court sets, where Radford is stout defensively.
Confidence: 60%
Saint Bonaventure vs UCLA
The Skinny
The Bonnies and Bruins both feature impressive guard play and like to shoot the three, and they shoot it well. St. Bonaventure has the dynamic backcourt duo of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley who can both light it up from downtown, as well as attack the basket. They combine to average 38.3 points a game, so they are key to what the Bonnies look to accomplish on offense. As for UCLA, they like to play an up-tempo, free flowing offensive game. Led by Aaron Holiday, the Bruins score 81.9 PPG and take a three for 40% of their shots, so they can put up points in a hurry. This game will come down to who can get more stops on the defensive end, where neither team shines.
Key Matchup: Jaylen Adams vs Aaron Holiday
Two of the premier guards in college basketball will be matched up in this one, and you can expect offensive fireworks. Adams is the Bonnie's point guard, and he is more of the score-first mentality. He can score in a variety of ways, making him tough to guard for any opponent. Jaylen is more than capable of getting into the lane and attacking the rim. He also draws fouls at an excellent rate, taking 6.4 free throws a game, and he makes 85.6% of his shots from the charity stripe. He can really light it up from downtown though, as he take 6.3 threes a game. He isn't just chucking them up without a prayer however, as he makes 45.7% of his three pointers. Adams is also a solid passer, racking up 5.6 assists per game, and he has taken over some of the Bonnies games this season, going for 40+ in back to back games. As for Holiday, he offers a similar skillset to Adams. He is very athletic and can get to the basket with ease, where he can both finish among the bigs, using his length to keep the ball away from shot blockers, or dish it to a teammate, getting 5.8 assists a game. He really shine behind the arc, where he shoots 43.3%, and has been on fire during conference play, making 51.4% of his three pointers, which had led to him averaging 26 points per game over his last six contests. If one can lock down the other on defense, then their team will be at a significant advantage.
Prediction
This one should be fun to watch, as both teams can fill it up on the offensive end. Ultimately, I think UCLA's bigs will be the difference, as the Bonnies tend to play small ball, leaving them will few options for defending 6'10" Gigi Goloman, and 7'0" Thomas Welsh, so the Bruins should be able to control the boards and win this game.
Confidence: 65%
NC Central vs Texas Southern
The Skinny
The Eagles enter the tournament as the two worst teams, and it should be interesting to watch them play. I think both these teams are easy choice for the play-in game due to their poor conferences and records, but I think Texas Southern is underrated in this game. Sure, they have a losing 15-19 record, but that is due to their non-conference schedule being the toughest in the nation, and they have some high-major talent in the form of transfers. Looking at their conference numbers, they scored 81.3 points per game, and have an explosive backcourt of Trae Jefferson, Donte Clark, and Derrick Bruce, each averaging 14 or more points a game. Meanwhile, North Carolina Central possesses a solid if unspectacular defense, and they have thrown multiple different looks at opponents all season, from man to a variety of zones. They pound the glass, pulling in 38 rebounds a game, and make up for a middling offense by crashing the boards and getting 11.5 offensive rebounds.
Key Matchup: Raasean Davis vs Trayvon Reed
The matchup of the two bigs should be one to watch. Davis is key to what they Eagles do on offense, leading his team with 15 points and 8 rebounds a game. The Kent State transfer used his 6'8", 270 lb frame to bully MEAC bigs, getting in close and making two-thirds of his shots. He grabs 3 offensive rebounds per game, which allows him to maintain his high field goal percentage. He will have some trouble with that strategy against Reed, a 7'2" transfer from Auburn. He is also efficient offensive player, making 71% of his shots around the rim, as he towers his SWAC opponents. His greatest contribution to the Tigers comes on the defensive end, where he grabs 6.3 rebounds a game and blocks 2.9 shots, good for ninth best in the country. He is different than anything Davis has seen this season, so whether or not he can adapt and still be effective will go a long way in deciding this game.
Prediction
This game will ultimately come down to how well Texas Southern can get out in transition. They play at the 50th quickest tempo in the nation, while Eagles are at 221. I think the Tigers will be able to contain NC Central on the boards and let their talented backcourt run all over the Eagles.
Confidence: 75%
Arizona State vs Syracuse
The Skinny
Both of these teams arrive in Dayton with a lot of controversy surrounding their appearance in the tournament. The Sun Devils started off the season blistering hot, beating Kansas and Xavier in their non-conference play, but have been dreadful since the start of PAC-12 play, finishing ninth in the conference with a 8-10 record and losing in the first round of the conference tournament. When it was announced that they would be in the field of 68 instead of second place finisher USC, many were upset. Meanwhile, the Orange were a surprise selection to many, with a 20-13 record and 8-10 in the ACC, but their quality wins propelled them in. Many, including myself, lamented that the Orange had a far greater opportunity to rack up Quadrant I and II wins then a team such as Middle Tennessee State, but it doesn't matter now. On the court, Arizona State likes to play an up-tempo style, with lots of driving, which leads to a lot of layups and threes. Meanwhile, the Orange are much better on the other end of the floor, employing their traditional 2-3 zone that stifles opponent's offenses.
Key Matchup: Tra Holder and Shannon Evans versus The Zone
This game will ultimately come down to how well the backcourt of Arizona State, led by Holder and Evans, can attack the zone of Syracuse. As mentioned above, the Sun Devils like to get into the lane, which is a difficult task against a 2-3 zone, which basically dares opponents to shoot from the outside. Despite this, Syracuse holds opponents to just 32.8% from three point range, due to their length, with the 6'4" Frank Howard and 6'6" Tyus Battle challenging shots at the top of the zone. That hasn't stopped opponents from shooting it, though, as they take 24.2 threes a game against Syracuse. And if Arizona State does one thing well, it's shoot it from deep. When the Sun Devils were at their best in non-conference play, they shot the ball at nearly 40% from deep, and their four backcourt members, Holder, Evans, Kodi Justice and Remy Martin, all shoot over 37% from deep and take a combined 22 threes a game, so if they get hot, the Orange will be in trouble.
Prediction
It should be a fun one to watch, as Jim Boeheim and Bobby Hurley are two excellent coaches who should have their teams fired up since no one believed in their abilities to make the tournament. Ultimately, I think the Sun Devils come out hot, but they lose their three point stroke and Syracuse ends up winning in a close matchup.
Confidence: 55%
Radford vs LIU-Brooklyn
The Skinny
This game could be a microcosm of the entire tournament, as it features a classic battle of offense versus defense. The Higlanders of Radford are one of the nation’s best defensive teams, holidng their opponents to just 64.4 points per game, the 14th lowest total in the nation. Meanwhile, LIU has a high powered offense, averaging 77.5 points per game on the season. Both teams use a press, but while the Blackbirds like to push the pace, Radford prefers to play at a slow tempo on offense. This is not good news for either team, as they both turn the ball over a lot, LIU-Brooklyn avergaes 14.1 turnovers a game, while Radford gives it away 12.1 times a contest.
Key Matchup: Ed Polite Jr vs Raiquan Clark
Each team employs a stretch four, each of whom likes to step away from the basket and drive against slower bigs. First for Radford, 6’5” junior Ed Polite is the team’s leading scorer with 13.5 points per game. He excels at attacking the rim, shooting 54.5% from inside the arc, and he is an excellent rebounder, grabbing 7.7 boards a game. Polite is also an excellent defender who normally draws the opponents best frontcourt player, which in the case of the Blackbirds is Clark. Raiquan is a 6’6” junior who thrives in LIU’s up tempo offense, scoring 17.4 points per game. He is excellent at creating penetration and makes his shots at a 55.7% clip. Like Polite, he is also active on the glass. He gets 7.1 rebounds a game, with 2.1 coming om the offensive end. He hasn’t faced many players like Polite, who have the size, length, and athleticism to keep him in check, and their battle could end up deciding the game.
Prediction
In what should be a close game, I’m going to give the edge to Radford. Their press should feast on the Blackbirds high turnover rate, and I think they will win the pace of play battle, forcing LIU into more half court sets, where Radford is stout defensively.
Confidence: 60%
Saint Bonaventure vs UCLA
The Skinny
The Bonnies and Bruins both feature impressive guard play and like to shoot the three, and they shoot it well. St. Bonaventure has the dynamic backcourt duo of Jaylen Adams and Matt Mobley who can both light it up from downtown, as well as attack the basket. They combine to average 38.3 points a game, so they are key to what the Bonnies look to accomplish on offense. As for UCLA, they like to play an up-tempo, free flowing offensive game. Led by Aaron Holiday, the Bruins score 81.9 PPG and take a three for 40% of their shots, so they can put up points in a hurry. This game will come down to who can get more stops on the defensive end, where neither team shines.
Key Matchup: Jaylen Adams vs Aaron Holiday
Two of the premier guards in college basketball will be matched up in this one, and you can expect offensive fireworks. Adams is the Bonnie's point guard, and he is more of the score-first mentality. He can score in a variety of ways, making him tough to guard for any opponent. Jaylen is more than capable of getting into the lane and attacking the rim. He also draws fouls at an excellent rate, taking 6.4 free throws a game, and he makes 85.6% of his shots from the charity stripe. He can really light it up from downtown though, as he take 6.3 threes a game. He isn't just chucking them up without a prayer however, as he makes 45.7% of his three pointers. Adams is also a solid passer, racking up 5.6 assists per game, and he has taken over some of the Bonnies games this season, going for 40+ in back to back games. As for Holiday, he offers a similar skillset to Adams. He is very athletic and can get to the basket with ease, where he can both finish among the bigs, using his length to keep the ball away from shot blockers, or dish it to a teammate, getting 5.8 assists a game. He really shine behind the arc, where he shoots 43.3%, and has been on fire during conference play, making 51.4% of his three pointers, which had led to him averaging 26 points per game over his last six contests. If one can lock down the other on defense, then their team will be at a significant advantage.
Prediction
This one should be fun to watch, as both teams can fill it up on the offensive end. Ultimately, I think UCLA's bigs will be the difference, as the Bonnies tend to play small ball, leaving them will few options for defending 6'10" Gigi Goloman, and 7'0" Thomas Welsh, so the Bruins should be able to control the boards and win this game.
Confidence: 65%
NC Central vs Texas Southern
The Skinny
The Eagles enter the tournament as the two worst teams, and it should be interesting to watch them play. I think both these teams are easy choice for the play-in game due to their poor conferences and records, but I think Texas Southern is underrated in this game. Sure, they have a losing 15-19 record, but that is due to their non-conference schedule being the toughest in the nation, and they have some high-major talent in the form of transfers. Looking at their conference numbers, they scored 81.3 points per game, and have an explosive backcourt of Trae Jefferson, Donte Clark, and Derrick Bruce, each averaging 14 or more points a game. Meanwhile, North Carolina Central possesses a solid if unspectacular defense, and they have thrown multiple different looks at opponents all season, from man to a variety of zones. They pound the glass, pulling in 38 rebounds a game, and make up for a middling offense by crashing the boards and getting 11.5 offensive rebounds.
Key Matchup: Raasean Davis vs Trayvon Reed
The matchup of the two bigs should be one to watch. Davis is key to what they Eagles do on offense, leading his team with 15 points and 8 rebounds a game. The Kent State transfer used his 6'8", 270 lb frame to bully MEAC bigs, getting in close and making two-thirds of his shots. He grabs 3 offensive rebounds per game, which allows him to maintain his high field goal percentage. He will have some trouble with that strategy against Reed, a 7'2" transfer from Auburn. He is also efficient offensive player, making 71% of his shots around the rim, as he towers his SWAC opponents. His greatest contribution to the Tigers comes on the defensive end, where he grabs 6.3 rebounds a game and blocks 2.9 shots, good for ninth best in the country. He is different than anything Davis has seen this season, so whether or not he can adapt and still be effective will go a long way in deciding this game.
Prediction
This game will ultimately come down to how well Texas Southern can get out in transition. They play at the 50th quickest tempo in the nation, while Eagles are at 221. I think the Tigers will be able to contain NC Central on the boards and let their talented backcourt run all over the Eagles.
Confidence: 75%
Arizona State vs Syracuse
The Skinny
Both of these teams arrive in Dayton with a lot of controversy surrounding their appearance in the tournament. The Sun Devils started off the season blistering hot, beating Kansas and Xavier in their non-conference play, but have been dreadful since the start of PAC-12 play, finishing ninth in the conference with a 8-10 record and losing in the first round of the conference tournament. When it was announced that they would be in the field of 68 instead of second place finisher USC, many were upset. Meanwhile, the Orange were a surprise selection to many, with a 20-13 record and 8-10 in the ACC, but their quality wins propelled them in. Many, including myself, lamented that the Orange had a far greater opportunity to rack up Quadrant I and II wins then a team such as Middle Tennessee State, but it doesn't matter now. On the court, Arizona State likes to play an up-tempo style, with lots of driving, which leads to a lot of layups and threes. Meanwhile, the Orange are much better on the other end of the floor, employing their traditional 2-3 zone that stifles opponent's offenses.
Key Matchup: Tra Holder and Shannon Evans versus The Zone
This game will ultimately come down to how well the backcourt of Arizona State, led by Holder and Evans, can attack the zone of Syracuse. As mentioned above, the Sun Devils like to get into the lane, which is a difficult task against a 2-3 zone, which basically dares opponents to shoot from the outside. Despite this, Syracuse holds opponents to just 32.8% from three point range, due to their length, with the 6'4" Frank Howard and 6'6" Tyus Battle challenging shots at the top of the zone. That hasn't stopped opponents from shooting it, though, as they take 24.2 threes a game against Syracuse. And if Arizona State does one thing well, it's shoot it from deep. When the Sun Devils were at their best in non-conference play, they shot the ball at nearly 40% from deep, and their four backcourt members, Holder, Evans, Kodi Justice and Remy Martin, all shoot over 37% from deep and take a combined 22 threes a game, so if they get hot, the Orange will be in trouble.
Prediction
It should be a fun one to watch, as Jim Boeheim and Bobby Hurley are two excellent coaches who should have their teams fired up since no one believed in their abilities to make the tournament. Ultimately, I think the Sun Devils come out hot, but they lose their three point stroke and Syracuse ends up winning in a close matchup.
Confidence: 55%
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