After a great weekend of college hoops, I have some thoughts on a few teams and some games I watched over the past few days. Additionally, I have my newest Top 25 and a preview of some of the week's best games. Let me know if you enjoy this new format or not on Twitter @ThreePointRange, where you can also get some instant reactions from me on games and news. Additionally, I'm always happy to talk about my rankings and if you want to make a case for your favorite team being higher, than I'm always happy to hear it. I love feedback from everyone who reads so let me know what you think, and thanks for reading as always.
What I Saw
- I don't think I was more wrong about a team this year than Penn State. I picked the Nittany Lions to finish twelfth in the Big Ten and put them in the "NIT Hopefuls" tier. That obviously looks quite stupid now. They sit at 12-2, with their only losses coming to Ole Miss by 2 in a game where they had a crazy collapse, and Ohio State. They've beaten Syracuse, Georgetown, Maryland, Alabama, and most recently, Iowa. They are absolutely for real and I've moved them into the top 20 of my rankings this week. The biggest reason they've exceeded my expectations this season has been their guard play. To be frank, I didn't see any guys in the backcourt that I thought were all that good. However, Myron Jones has taken a step that I didn't think he had, and is now averaging 13.8 points a game and shooting 40% from three. St. Bonaventure transfer Izaiah Brockington has also been a revelation, averaging 10.8 points a game, and Myles Dread, Curtis Jones, and Jamari Wheeler are all providing good minutes in the backcourt as well. That doesn't even take into account the great play of forward Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins anchoring their defense, grabbing 9 boards and blocking 3.5 shots a game. A lot can change between now and March, but at this point, I'd be pretty shocked if this team doesn't make an appearance in March Madness.
- While we're talking about my preseason misses, Butler has to be up there as well. I had them finishing eighth in the Big East and thought they'd be a bubble team. Instead, they look like the class on the league and I have them in my top 5 this week. Their lone loss was to Baylor, another team in my top 5, by one on the road, and the reason for the turnaround is pretty clear to see. Last year, the Bulldogs finished 123 on KenPom in defensive efficiency. They currently sit in fourth in that metric, and they pass the eye test on that end as well. On Saturday, they took on Creighton, one of the top offensive teams in the country who were fresh off of a 92 point performance against Marquette. The Bulldogs held the Blue Jays to 57 points and did a great job of making things difficult for the perimeter trio of Marcus Zegarowski, Tyshon Alexander, and Mitch Ballock. They blew up a lot of the actions Creighton tried to run and held them to 4-22 shooting from behind the arc, or 18.2%. For a team that normally shoots 36.5% from deep and is pretty heavily reliant on the three point shot, that's some pretty good defense. Sure, Kamar Baldwin is a stud offensively, but the defensive contributions of guys like Aaron Thompson, Bryce Nze, and Henry Baddley have been equally as important to Lavall Jordan's bunch as they have defied preseason expectations.
- Texas Tech was written off by many after a three game losing streak in late November. and early December. Sticking with the theme of me being wrong, I thought the talent level was down from last year and people were too quick to put blind trust in Chris Beard after his success each of the past two years. Well, they haven't lost since then and blew the doors off of an Oklahoma State team I thought was pretty good, beating them 85-50 in Lubbock this weekend. Freshman guard Jahmi'us Ramsey was absent when I saw them play earlier in the year, and the Red Raiders look like a different team with him in the lineup. He's averaging a team best 17.3 points over the first nine games of his collegiate career, and had a team high 18 points and four made threes during their most recent win. He brings a shot creator to the offense as well as goos three point shooting, something that wasn't always there during his absence when Davide Moretti looked like the only guy who could consistently hit shots from behind the arc. Meanwhile, transfer bigs Chris Clarke and TJ Holyfield have been difference makers as well. Clarke came from Virginia Tech as a jack of all trades type, and has lived up to that billing so far. He leads the team in rebounds and assists and has seamlessly fit into the defensive scheme Chris Beard employs. Meanwhile, Holyfield is the post presence for the Red Raiders, and he also had a big game in their win. He had 17 and was pretty dominant against Yor Anei, who is a good defensive big man. Finally, freshman wing Terrance Shannon looks like he's going to be a major contributor through his time in Lubbock. He exploded for 24 points in their loss to DePaul, and has shown promising flashes throughout every game. He's the third leading scorer on the team this year, and he could be a guy that elevates his play during Big 12 games.
- The matchup between Kansas and West Virginia looked like it was going to be one of the best of the weekend. It wasn't always pretty, but it was a fascinating game. West Virginia owned the first half thanks to the play of Oscar Tshiebwe. The freshman big didn't look intimidated at all in Phogg Allen Fieldhouse, scoring 15 points and grabbing 10 rebounds during the first half, and had the Mountaineers up 30-24 at the break. In the second half, however, the Jayhawks established themselves en route to a 60-53 win. Their own big, Udoka Azubuike, came alive, and was the recipient of some crazy alley oops. He finished with 17 and 11, and was a perfect 6-6 from the field. Meanwhile, guards Miles McBride for West Virginia and Devon Dotson for Kansas played well, scoring 13 and 16 respectively. McBride has been excellent through the past two games for the Mountaineers, and he often looked like the only form of perimeter offense they had in this one. Meanwhile, this wasn't Dotson's finest performance, as he struggled for most of the first half, but he remains one of the top point guards in the nation and should be key for this team moving forward. Don't overlook the contributions of Christian Braun either. The freshman played a big role for the Jayhawks with his toughness and the fight he showed against a very physical opponent. He had 6 points and 5 rebounds, but always seemed to be making a big play when Kansas needed it most. I'm not sure what he'll be going forward, but this was a really big performance for the freshman.
- Another top game of the weekend was Florida State at Louisville. Two of the top ACC teams is always appointment viewing, even in a down year for the conference. This game didn't disappoint. The Seminoles walked away with a 78-65 win after a close game throughout, and I was very impressed by them in this one. They shot it as well as I've ever seen, and MJ Walker was a big part of that. It was another performance of his where it looked like he was turning the corner to becoming a star, but we've seen this from the former five star junior too often. He needs to become much more consistent to be relied on as a key contributor, but this game was an example of exactly what he can do at his best. He scored a game high 23 points while shooting 9-13 from the field and 5-7 from three. His play was great, as was senior point guard Trent Forrest. He dropped 20 and had 5 assists, while also playing good defense. He firmly established himself as one of the top players in the ACC in this one, if he hadn't already, and the Seminoles put together probably their best offensive performance of the year, and they looked the part of a top 10 team and ACC challenger in this one. For Louisville, this was very interesting. In their previous two loss, star forward Jordan Nwora basically went missing. The two teams they lost to, Texas Tech and Kentucky, had similar profiles to the Noles, with stout defenses based on good athletes. However, Nwora played maybe his best game yet for the Cardinals. He had a career high 32 points and also grabbed 10 rebounds. He was huge in keeping this game close throughout the first half, as every time he got a clean look at the basket, he made the shot, no matter where it was from. He was 5-6 from three and 11-15 from the field in this one, and looked like the All-American that he hadn't shown in their prior losses. I don't know if this is good or bad for the Cardinals. They still clearly need a consistent second option, but seeing they can lose a game even when Nwora plays at his best has to be worrisome for Chris Mack. He'll need Stephen Enoch or Fresh Kimble to step up as a guy who can get a bucket outside of Nwora, and freshman Samuel Williamson has been very disappointing to start the year. For this team to play to their full potential, Louisville needs to either play excellent defense, like they did against Michigan, or find a secondary scoring option.
- Finally, in-state rivals Michigan and Michigan State squared off on Sunday. In what was a close game for most of the first half, the Spartans slowly but surely pulled away to come away with a 87-69 win. Cassius Winston was excellent as always for Michigan State. He set a new career high with 32 points and had 9 assists as well. He's such a great player in ball screens and his ability to create and hit shots is unparalleled. I can't say much about him that hasn't already been said, but this game showed why he was the consensus National Player of the Year heading into the season. Xavier Tillman was also great for Michigan State with 20 and 11, and the big man is excellent out of the pick and roll, just as his point guard is. Those two are probably the best pick and roll duo in the nation, and they led Michigan State back into my Top 25. Meanwhile, Michigan clearly missed Isaiah Livers in the lineup, who is out with a groin injury. The junior forward is such a key piece for the Wolverines. His ability to play at the three or the four makes Michigan much more dangerous. He can guard fours defensively while exploiting some slower footed bigs on offense given his ability to play on the wing, and Juwan Howard can take advantage of teams playing small ball fours by plugging Livers in at the three and playing a guy like Brandon Johns at power forward. Meanwhile, his shooting was also dearly missed. He's making 50% of the threes on the year, and he opens up the lane for Zavier Simpson to attack and Jon Teske to go to work in the post. Eli Brooks clearly struggled with increased defensive attention, and the Wolverines struggled not only to score, but find ways to stop the Spartans. They need him to get healthy once more, and assuming he plays against relatively soon, I'm not worried about their long term outlook this season.
Top 25
1. Duke (+2)
2. Kansas (N/A)
3. Gonzaga (-2)
4. Baylor (+1)
5. Butler (+6)
6. Auburn (+1)
7. San Diego State (+5)
8. Michigan State (+5)
9. Florida State (+10)
10. Oregon (-4)
11. Ohio State (-7)
12. Maryland (+2)
13. Kentucky (+5)
14. Louisville (-5)
15. Dayton (+1)
16. Michigan (-2)
17. West Virginia (N/A)
18. Wichita State (+2)
19. Penn State (+2)
20. Memphis (-12)
21. Texas Tech (+6)
22. Villanova (-12)
23. Virginia (+5)
24. Arkansas (N/A)
25. Arizona (+5)
Next 5
26. Seton Hall (NR)
27. Iowa (NR)
28. Creighton (+1)
29. LSU (NR)
30. Colorado (NR)
Dropped Out: DePaul (22), Saint Mary's (23), Washington (25), Xavier (26)
Also Considered: BYU, DePaul, Houston, Iowa, Liberty, Northern Iowa, Purdue, Rutgers, Saint Mary's, St. John's, Stanford, USC, Utah State, VCU, Washington, Xavier
Notes
- The number one spot in all rankings has been a mess this year, as no team has seemed to establish themselves as the elite in the nation this year. Last week, I had Gonzaga at #1. However, after struggling with Pacific and Pepperdine this week, I moved the Zags down to three, while I had the previous #3 Duke surpass Kansas and take over the top spot. Really, I think those three teams are the best in the nation, and I don't think I'd argue with any ranking of them. However, the way the Blue Devils dominated Boston College and Miami propelled them to the top spot, while Gonzaga struggling with inferior competition moved them down. I'm not of the opinion that you can't punish a team for winning, which Gonzaga did, and I just think that at the moment, Duke is the best team in the nation.
- You may have noticed that I didn't move West Virginia down despite losing to Kansas. For one, I probably had them too low last week and the more I thought about it, the more I wished I had them higher. Also, losing in a close game at Kansas isn't something that I would really punish a team for and move them down too much anyways. I think 17 is the right place for them this week, and that's where I have them.
- I'm still not totally sure who exactly is good, especially once you get outside the Top 25. Colorado lost at home to Oregon State, Purdue lost to Illinois, Washington fell to UCLA at home, DePaul fell off of a cliff, etc. Even the back end of the Top 25, with teams like Arizona and Arkansas, is incredibly confusing, and the gap between a lot of these teams is razor thin. If your team is in Also Considered, know that they are one big result from being in the Next 5 or even the Top 25.
What to Watch
- Ohio State travels to Maryland to face the Terrapins. It's a big game for both of these teams, as Ohio State is looking to snap a two game losing streak while Maryland has yet to prove themselves against another Top 25 team. I think Maryland's two stars, Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith, will be key in this matchup. Cowan hasn't been quite as good as I thought he would be this year, especially in the two games Maryland lost. In those two games, he was 8-31 from the field, and 6-19 from three. He will need to improve in order for Maryland to hit their ceiling. Meanwhile, Smith will be matched up with Ohio State center Kaleb Wesson. He's one of the top bigs not only in the conference, but the country, and Smith will have to assert himself defensively, where he's shown that he can be a very good player. Meanwhile, Ohio State is currently in the midst of a rough stretch, and how they respond in this game will be very indicative of how their season might go. DJ Carton is a player to watch. In the win over Kentucky, he looked like a star. However, he struggled mightily against against West Virginia with turnovers and was held scoreless against Wisconsin while giving the ball up four times. The freshman guard needs to find consistency in his play and take better care of the ball if the Buckeyes want to walk away with a win.
- In another Big Ten matchup, Penn State faces Rutgers in the RAC. In previous years, this game would just be given as a win to Penn State, a ranked team, and that would be that. But Rutgers is much improved this season and this will not be an easy game. The Scarlet Knights will likely be without the services of their second leading scorer, guard Geo Baker, who is out with a wrist injury. Caleb McConnell stepped in for him in their last game, and was perfect shooting the ball, and getting another performance like that would be huge. However, they will likely miss him taking care of the ball more. Penn State is create at getting steals, and the Scarlet Knights have struggled with giving the ball away, especially without Baker in the lineup. I think the matchup that ends up deciding the games is in the paint, with Myles Johnson battling Mike Watkins. Both are great at cleaning the glass, averaging roughly 9 boards a game, and whoever can assert themselves more should give their team a huge advantage. It will be a big test for the sophomore Johnson, as Watkins is incredibly physical and should make life tough for him. It's a big occasion for Rutgers to grab a big win, but I think this matchup might be a little bit too much for them.
- One of the Top 25 matchups this week features my #4 team Baylor traveling to Lubbock to face in-state rival and #21 Texas Tech. Outside of a loss in Alaska to Washington in the second game of the season, Baylor has been excellent, knocking off teams like Villanova, Arizona, and Butler this year. Meanwhile, I talked about Tech earlier, and this one looks like it could be a defensive battle. Baylor and Texas Tech rank ninth and thirteenth in adjusted defensive efficiency respectively, so points could be hard to come by. Both teams will look to their point guards to make things happen on that end. I talked about the impact Jahmi'us Ramsey has on the Red Raiders early, but the Bear's floor general is just as good. Jared Baylor leads his team in points with 17.3 points, and is making 42.2% of his threes on the year. Whoever wins that battle should give their team an edge in this game.
- If you'd rather an offensive game, then this next game is for you. Villanova takes on Creighton and these are two teams that aren't afraid to let it fly from three. They both take over 40% of their shots from three, and with good reason. Each team makes more than 34% of their threes, and I think Villanova, who is shooting the lower number from three, is a much better shooting team than we've seen so far. Ironically, the player who could decide the game plays in the post. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is a five star freshman for the Wildcats who has been solid so far in his inaugural college season. He leads Villanova in rebounds, and has often shown his potential, like with a 22 point effort against Mississippi State. He'll have an opportunity to shine against an undersized Creighton front line. If he and the rest of the Cats can control the boards and get Robinson-Earl some touches in the paint against smaller players like Christian Bishop and Denzel Mahoney, then they'll have a good shot at winning. They'll also need to key in on Mitch Ballock. He only had 6 points in their loss against Butler, and the junior is a sharpshooter from deep. He's the guy that Jay Wright will not want to let get hot, as his shooting can single handedly win games. This should have some offensive fireworks and give us an early look at the Big East title race.
- The SEC has been a muddled mess so far this year, with a lot of teams underperforming expectations and only Auburn and Kentucky stepping up and establishing themselves as surefire tournament squads. Arkansas and LSU will look to join that group, and they play each other in Baton Rouge this coming Wednesday. It should be a fascinating battle. Arkansas has thrived at taking away opponent's three point attempts, while LSU has done their work inside the arc. This should favor the Tigers, as the Razorbacks don't have a real rim protector and guys like Emmitt Williams, Darius Days, and Trendon Watford should be able to grab a ton of rebounds and dominate their smaller defenders on the interior. However, LSU has struggled against teams who can make threes, with their opponents shooting 34% from deep on the year. Arkansas has one of the top shooters in the nation in Isaiah Joe, and Mason Jones isn't shy about jacking up threes either. The style clash will be interesting and this is low-key a pretty big matchup in the SEC.
- The top of the AAC face off as Penny Hardaway's Memphis travels to face Gregg Marshall and Wichita State. Memphis is obviously without James Wiseman, and are coming off of a loss to Georgia at home. DJ Jeffries, their second leading scorer, was absent from that game, and they'll need him if they want to knock off their conference rival. The Tigers' defense has been excellent this year, and freshmen Precious Achiuwa, Jeffries, and Lestor Quinones have been leading the offense. Meanwhile, the Shockers are fresh off of a big win over Ole Miss, and also have a good defense, sitting one spot behind Memphis in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think this game will come down to which team's leading scorer can take control. For Memphis, that is Achiuwa. The big man is averaging a double double on the year and 16 points in the games that Wiseman hasn't played, really stepping up in the absence of his fellow five star talent. However, he'll have to contend with the experienced Shockers' front court. Jamie Echinqiue is a physical senior who won't let anything come easy for Achiuwa, and it will be a difficult matchup for him to find success. Additionally, the Shockers have multiple other front court options with size to throw at him, and he could even see some of Trey Wade if Gregg Marshall decides that the smaller player is a better matchup. On the other side of the ball, keep an eye on Erik Stevenson. While the Shockers have many different scoring options, Stevenson is the highest scoring on the year, averaging just over 14 points a game, and he's a lethal shooter from deep when he's on. He made 5 shots from behind the arc in the last game en route to a career high 29 points. If he can stay hot, he'll provide some valuable floor spacing and could torch a good Memphis D. If not, then Wichita State could struggle with all of the athleticism the Tigers have. This should be a fascinating game and a battle between the two top teams in the American.
- Purdue is in trouble as it heads to Michigan to take on the Wolverines. The Boilermakers have struggled recently, going 2-2 over their last four and are coming off of a blowout loss to Illinois. After this game, they have to go up against a Michigan State team that looks red hot right now, and then travel to Maryland to play a resurgent Terrapins team. Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off a blowout loss of their own to the aforementioned Spartans and the Wolverines have quietly lost four of their last five games against high major competition after a hot start to the season. There are absolutely no easy games in the Big Ten this year and one of these teams will be much worse off after this one. If Isaiah Livers can play for Michigan, that'd be a huge addition as I mentioned earlier. Sasha Stefanovic might be the key for Purdue. They are 4-1 when he scores in double digits and he's put up multiple 20+ point outings thanks to his sharpshooting from three point range. However, Michigan does a great job of closing out on shooters and not letting teams get the looks they want from behind the arc. If Purdue can get him going, not only will it help their offense, it will mean they've cracked a tough Michigan defense as well. That would be huge for their chance to leave Ann Arbor with a victory.
- Heading out west, two of the Pac-12's best clash when Arizona faces Oregon. The Wildcats are coming off of a huge victory over their in-state rival Sun Devils, and they will be looking to keep that momentum going on their road trip. Meanwhile, Oregon slipped up at Colorado and was locked in a tight game with Utah, and they will be looking to prove a point in this one. One of the things that stands out to me is Oregon's tendancy to give up offensive rebounds. Arizona's freshman big Zeke Nnaji has been great on the glass, grabbing 8.1 rebounds a game, and he could certainly find some easy points through that route. The Wildcats will also need Nico Mannion to step up. He only had 10 in the Arizona State win, and struggled in their three losses, noticeably from three, going just 3-20 from behind the arc. If he can get going, then they will have a big opportunity to pick up a road win. For Oregon, Anthony Mathis could be the key. The New Mexico transfer is a deadeye from behind the arc, shooting 48.7% from three on the season, but he's gone missing during their losses. He's had 12 total points on 2-13 shooting from deep during the Ducks' three losses. This matchup could come down to which team shoots it better from three point range, and Mannion and Mathis could very well be the x-factors.
- Finally, a mid-major clash between BYU and Saint Mary's. The WCC is very good this year, but these look like the two teams that could pose a threat to Gonzaga at the top of the conference. The Gaels are coming off a four overtime loss against Pacific, and they will certainly be hungry and looking to knock off a very good BYU team. Yoeli Childs recently became eligible for the Cougars, and he's clearly made a difference. They are 6-1 since he's returned and he's averaging 20.9 points and 10.1 rebounds in those seven games. Stopping him will be key for Saint Mary's, although the loss of starting center Matthias Tass to an ACL tear will make things much more difficult. Slowing down Childs' scoring may not be enough though. BYU surrounds him with four capable shooters in TJ Haws, Alex Barcello, Jake Toolson, and Dalton Nixon, and bench player Connor Harding is another three point shooter. This is a nightmare to defend and seeing how Randy Bennett chooses to attack it will be interesting. Meanwhile, BYU has to deal with the star duo of Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts. Each is averaging over 15 points a game and can score in a variety of ways. Fitts in particular could shine as BYU doesn't have an obvious answer to his physicality as a guy who can play both on the wing and the interior. I'd expect a lot of points in this one and it should be a great game.
What I Saw
- I don't think I was more wrong about a team this year than Penn State. I picked the Nittany Lions to finish twelfth in the Big Ten and put them in the "NIT Hopefuls" tier. That obviously looks quite stupid now. They sit at 12-2, with their only losses coming to Ole Miss by 2 in a game where they had a crazy collapse, and Ohio State. They've beaten Syracuse, Georgetown, Maryland, Alabama, and most recently, Iowa. They are absolutely for real and I've moved them into the top 20 of my rankings this week. The biggest reason they've exceeded my expectations this season has been their guard play. To be frank, I didn't see any guys in the backcourt that I thought were all that good. However, Myron Jones has taken a step that I didn't think he had, and is now averaging 13.8 points a game and shooting 40% from three. St. Bonaventure transfer Izaiah Brockington has also been a revelation, averaging 10.8 points a game, and Myles Dread, Curtis Jones, and Jamari Wheeler are all providing good minutes in the backcourt as well. That doesn't even take into account the great play of forward Lamar Stevens and Mike Watkins anchoring their defense, grabbing 9 boards and blocking 3.5 shots a game. A lot can change between now and March, but at this point, I'd be pretty shocked if this team doesn't make an appearance in March Madness.
- While we're talking about my preseason misses, Butler has to be up there as well. I had them finishing eighth in the Big East and thought they'd be a bubble team. Instead, they look like the class on the league and I have them in my top 5 this week. Their lone loss was to Baylor, another team in my top 5, by one on the road, and the reason for the turnaround is pretty clear to see. Last year, the Bulldogs finished 123 on KenPom in defensive efficiency. They currently sit in fourth in that metric, and they pass the eye test on that end as well. On Saturday, they took on Creighton, one of the top offensive teams in the country who were fresh off of a 92 point performance against Marquette. The Bulldogs held the Blue Jays to 57 points and did a great job of making things difficult for the perimeter trio of Marcus Zegarowski, Tyshon Alexander, and Mitch Ballock. They blew up a lot of the actions Creighton tried to run and held them to 4-22 shooting from behind the arc, or 18.2%. For a team that normally shoots 36.5% from deep and is pretty heavily reliant on the three point shot, that's some pretty good defense. Sure, Kamar Baldwin is a stud offensively, but the defensive contributions of guys like Aaron Thompson, Bryce Nze, and Henry Baddley have been equally as important to Lavall Jordan's bunch as they have defied preseason expectations.
- Texas Tech was written off by many after a three game losing streak in late November. and early December. Sticking with the theme of me being wrong, I thought the talent level was down from last year and people were too quick to put blind trust in Chris Beard after his success each of the past two years. Well, they haven't lost since then and blew the doors off of an Oklahoma State team I thought was pretty good, beating them 85-50 in Lubbock this weekend. Freshman guard Jahmi'us Ramsey was absent when I saw them play earlier in the year, and the Red Raiders look like a different team with him in the lineup. He's averaging a team best 17.3 points over the first nine games of his collegiate career, and had a team high 18 points and four made threes during their most recent win. He brings a shot creator to the offense as well as goos three point shooting, something that wasn't always there during his absence when Davide Moretti looked like the only guy who could consistently hit shots from behind the arc. Meanwhile, transfer bigs Chris Clarke and TJ Holyfield have been difference makers as well. Clarke came from Virginia Tech as a jack of all trades type, and has lived up to that billing so far. He leads the team in rebounds and assists and has seamlessly fit into the defensive scheme Chris Beard employs. Meanwhile, Holyfield is the post presence for the Red Raiders, and he also had a big game in their win. He had 17 and was pretty dominant against Yor Anei, who is a good defensive big man. Finally, freshman wing Terrance Shannon looks like he's going to be a major contributor through his time in Lubbock. He exploded for 24 points in their loss to DePaul, and has shown promising flashes throughout every game. He's the third leading scorer on the team this year, and he could be a guy that elevates his play during Big 12 games.
- The matchup between Kansas and West Virginia looked like it was going to be one of the best of the weekend. It wasn't always pretty, but it was a fascinating game. West Virginia owned the first half thanks to the play of Oscar Tshiebwe. The freshman big didn't look intimidated at all in Phogg Allen Fieldhouse, scoring 15 points and grabbing 10 rebounds during the first half, and had the Mountaineers up 30-24 at the break. In the second half, however, the Jayhawks established themselves en route to a 60-53 win. Their own big, Udoka Azubuike, came alive, and was the recipient of some crazy alley oops. He finished with 17 and 11, and was a perfect 6-6 from the field. Meanwhile, guards Miles McBride for West Virginia and Devon Dotson for Kansas played well, scoring 13 and 16 respectively. McBride has been excellent through the past two games for the Mountaineers, and he often looked like the only form of perimeter offense they had in this one. Meanwhile, this wasn't Dotson's finest performance, as he struggled for most of the first half, but he remains one of the top point guards in the nation and should be key for this team moving forward. Don't overlook the contributions of Christian Braun either. The freshman played a big role for the Jayhawks with his toughness and the fight he showed against a very physical opponent. He had 6 points and 5 rebounds, but always seemed to be making a big play when Kansas needed it most. I'm not sure what he'll be going forward, but this was a really big performance for the freshman.
- Another top game of the weekend was Florida State at Louisville. Two of the top ACC teams is always appointment viewing, even in a down year for the conference. This game didn't disappoint. The Seminoles walked away with a 78-65 win after a close game throughout, and I was very impressed by them in this one. They shot it as well as I've ever seen, and MJ Walker was a big part of that. It was another performance of his where it looked like he was turning the corner to becoming a star, but we've seen this from the former five star junior too often. He needs to become much more consistent to be relied on as a key contributor, but this game was an example of exactly what he can do at his best. He scored a game high 23 points while shooting 9-13 from the field and 5-7 from three. His play was great, as was senior point guard Trent Forrest. He dropped 20 and had 5 assists, while also playing good defense. He firmly established himself as one of the top players in the ACC in this one, if he hadn't already, and the Seminoles put together probably their best offensive performance of the year, and they looked the part of a top 10 team and ACC challenger in this one. For Louisville, this was very interesting. In their previous two loss, star forward Jordan Nwora basically went missing. The two teams they lost to, Texas Tech and Kentucky, had similar profiles to the Noles, with stout defenses based on good athletes. However, Nwora played maybe his best game yet for the Cardinals. He had a career high 32 points and also grabbed 10 rebounds. He was huge in keeping this game close throughout the first half, as every time he got a clean look at the basket, he made the shot, no matter where it was from. He was 5-6 from three and 11-15 from the field in this one, and looked like the All-American that he hadn't shown in their prior losses. I don't know if this is good or bad for the Cardinals. They still clearly need a consistent second option, but seeing they can lose a game even when Nwora plays at his best has to be worrisome for Chris Mack. He'll need Stephen Enoch or Fresh Kimble to step up as a guy who can get a bucket outside of Nwora, and freshman Samuel Williamson has been very disappointing to start the year. For this team to play to their full potential, Louisville needs to either play excellent defense, like they did against Michigan, or find a secondary scoring option.
- Finally, in-state rivals Michigan and Michigan State squared off on Sunday. In what was a close game for most of the first half, the Spartans slowly but surely pulled away to come away with a 87-69 win. Cassius Winston was excellent as always for Michigan State. He set a new career high with 32 points and had 9 assists as well. He's such a great player in ball screens and his ability to create and hit shots is unparalleled. I can't say much about him that hasn't already been said, but this game showed why he was the consensus National Player of the Year heading into the season. Xavier Tillman was also great for Michigan State with 20 and 11, and the big man is excellent out of the pick and roll, just as his point guard is. Those two are probably the best pick and roll duo in the nation, and they led Michigan State back into my Top 25. Meanwhile, Michigan clearly missed Isaiah Livers in the lineup, who is out with a groin injury. The junior forward is such a key piece for the Wolverines. His ability to play at the three or the four makes Michigan much more dangerous. He can guard fours defensively while exploiting some slower footed bigs on offense given his ability to play on the wing, and Juwan Howard can take advantage of teams playing small ball fours by plugging Livers in at the three and playing a guy like Brandon Johns at power forward. Meanwhile, his shooting was also dearly missed. He's making 50% of the threes on the year, and he opens up the lane for Zavier Simpson to attack and Jon Teske to go to work in the post. Eli Brooks clearly struggled with increased defensive attention, and the Wolverines struggled not only to score, but find ways to stop the Spartans. They need him to get healthy once more, and assuming he plays against relatively soon, I'm not worried about their long term outlook this season.
Top 25
1. Duke (+2)
2. Kansas (N/A)
3. Gonzaga (-2)
4. Baylor (+1)
5. Butler (+6)
6. Auburn (+1)
7. San Diego State (+5)
8. Michigan State (+5)
9. Florida State (+10)
10. Oregon (-4)
11. Ohio State (-7)
12. Maryland (+2)
13. Kentucky (+5)
14. Louisville (-5)
15. Dayton (+1)
16. Michigan (-2)
17. West Virginia (N/A)
18. Wichita State (+2)
19. Penn State (+2)
20. Memphis (-12)
21. Texas Tech (+6)
22. Villanova (-12)
23. Virginia (+5)
24. Arkansas (N/A)
25. Arizona (+5)
Next 5
26. Seton Hall (NR)
27. Iowa (NR)
28. Creighton (+1)
29. LSU (NR)
30. Colorado (NR)
Dropped Out: DePaul (22), Saint Mary's (23), Washington (25), Xavier (26)
Also Considered: BYU, DePaul, Houston, Iowa, Liberty, Northern Iowa, Purdue, Rutgers, Saint Mary's, St. John's, Stanford, USC, Utah State, VCU, Washington, Xavier
Notes
- The number one spot in all rankings has been a mess this year, as no team has seemed to establish themselves as the elite in the nation this year. Last week, I had Gonzaga at #1. However, after struggling with Pacific and Pepperdine this week, I moved the Zags down to three, while I had the previous #3 Duke surpass Kansas and take over the top spot. Really, I think those three teams are the best in the nation, and I don't think I'd argue with any ranking of them. However, the way the Blue Devils dominated Boston College and Miami propelled them to the top spot, while Gonzaga struggling with inferior competition moved them down. I'm not of the opinion that you can't punish a team for winning, which Gonzaga did, and I just think that at the moment, Duke is the best team in the nation.
- You may have noticed that I didn't move West Virginia down despite losing to Kansas. For one, I probably had them too low last week and the more I thought about it, the more I wished I had them higher. Also, losing in a close game at Kansas isn't something that I would really punish a team for and move them down too much anyways. I think 17 is the right place for them this week, and that's where I have them.
- I'm still not totally sure who exactly is good, especially once you get outside the Top 25. Colorado lost at home to Oregon State, Purdue lost to Illinois, Washington fell to UCLA at home, DePaul fell off of a cliff, etc. Even the back end of the Top 25, with teams like Arizona and Arkansas, is incredibly confusing, and the gap between a lot of these teams is razor thin. If your team is in Also Considered, know that they are one big result from being in the Next 5 or even the Top 25.
What to Watch
- Ohio State travels to Maryland to face the Terrapins. It's a big game for both of these teams, as Ohio State is looking to snap a two game losing streak while Maryland has yet to prove themselves against another Top 25 team. I think Maryland's two stars, Anthony Cowan and Jalen Smith, will be key in this matchup. Cowan hasn't been quite as good as I thought he would be this year, especially in the two games Maryland lost. In those two games, he was 8-31 from the field, and 6-19 from three. He will need to improve in order for Maryland to hit their ceiling. Meanwhile, Smith will be matched up with Ohio State center Kaleb Wesson. He's one of the top bigs not only in the conference, but the country, and Smith will have to assert himself defensively, where he's shown that he can be a very good player. Meanwhile, Ohio State is currently in the midst of a rough stretch, and how they respond in this game will be very indicative of how their season might go. DJ Carton is a player to watch. In the win over Kentucky, he looked like a star. However, he struggled mightily against against West Virginia with turnovers and was held scoreless against Wisconsin while giving the ball up four times. The freshman guard needs to find consistency in his play and take better care of the ball if the Buckeyes want to walk away with a win.
- In another Big Ten matchup, Penn State faces Rutgers in the RAC. In previous years, this game would just be given as a win to Penn State, a ranked team, and that would be that. But Rutgers is much improved this season and this will not be an easy game. The Scarlet Knights will likely be without the services of their second leading scorer, guard Geo Baker, who is out with a wrist injury. Caleb McConnell stepped in for him in their last game, and was perfect shooting the ball, and getting another performance like that would be huge. However, they will likely miss him taking care of the ball more. Penn State is create at getting steals, and the Scarlet Knights have struggled with giving the ball away, especially without Baker in the lineup. I think the matchup that ends up deciding the games is in the paint, with Myles Johnson battling Mike Watkins. Both are great at cleaning the glass, averaging roughly 9 boards a game, and whoever can assert themselves more should give their team a huge advantage. It will be a big test for the sophomore Johnson, as Watkins is incredibly physical and should make life tough for him. It's a big occasion for Rutgers to grab a big win, but I think this matchup might be a little bit too much for them.
- One of the Top 25 matchups this week features my #4 team Baylor traveling to Lubbock to face in-state rival and #21 Texas Tech. Outside of a loss in Alaska to Washington in the second game of the season, Baylor has been excellent, knocking off teams like Villanova, Arizona, and Butler this year. Meanwhile, I talked about Tech earlier, and this one looks like it could be a defensive battle. Baylor and Texas Tech rank ninth and thirteenth in adjusted defensive efficiency respectively, so points could be hard to come by. Both teams will look to their point guards to make things happen on that end. I talked about the impact Jahmi'us Ramsey has on the Red Raiders early, but the Bear's floor general is just as good. Jared Baylor leads his team in points with 17.3 points, and is making 42.2% of his threes on the year. Whoever wins that battle should give their team an edge in this game.
- If you'd rather an offensive game, then this next game is for you. Villanova takes on Creighton and these are two teams that aren't afraid to let it fly from three. They both take over 40% of their shots from three, and with good reason. Each team makes more than 34% of their threes, and I think Villanova, who is shooting the lower number from three, is a much better shooting team than we've seen so far. Ironically, the player who could decide the game plays in the post. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is a five star freshman for the Wildcats who has been solid so far in his inaugural college season. He leads Villanova in rebounds, and has often shown his potential, like with a 22 point effort against Mississippi State. He'll have an opportunity to shine against an undersized Creighton front line. If he and the rest of the Cats can control the boards and get Robinson-Earl some touches in the paint against smaller players like Christian Bishop and Denzel Mahoney, then they'll have a good shot at winning. They'll also need to key in on Mitch Ballock. He only had 6 points in their loss against Butler, and the junior is a sharpshooter from deep. He's the guy that Jay Wright will not want to let get hot, as his shooting can single handedly win games. This should have some offensive fireworks and give us an early look at the Big East title race.
- The SEC has been a muddled mess so far this year, with a lot of teams underperforming expectations and only Auburn and Kentucky stepping up and establishing themselves as surefire tournament squads. Arkansas and LSU will look to join that group, and they play each other in Baton Rouge this coming Wednesday. It should be a fascinating battle. Arkansas has thrived at taking away opponent's three point attempts, while LSU has done their work inside the arc. This should favor the Tigers, as the Razorbacks don't have a real rim protector and guys like Emmitt Williams, Darius Days, and Trendon Watford should be able to grab a ton of rebounds and dominate their smaller defenders on the interior. However, LSU has struggled against teams who can make threes, with their opponents shooting 34% from deep on the year. Arkansas has one of the top shooters in the nation in Isaiah Joe, and Mason Jones isn't shy about jacking up threes either. The style clash will be interesting and this is low-key a pretty big matchup in the SEC.
- The top of the AAC face off as Penny Hardaway's Memphis travels to face Gregg Marshall and Wichita State. Memphis is obviously without James Wiseman, and are coming off of a loss to Georgia at home. DJ Jeffries, their second leading scorer, was absent from that game, and they'll need him if they want to knock off their conference rival. The Tigers' defense has been excellent this year, and freshmen Precious Achiuwa, Jeffries, and Lestor Quinones have been leading the offense. Meanwhile, the Shockers are fresh off of a big win over Ole Miss, and also have a good defense, sitting one spot behind Memphis in adjusted defensive efficiency. I think this game will come down to which team's leading scorer can take control. For Memphis, that is Achiuwa. The big man is averaging a double double on the year and 16 points in the games that Wiseman hasn't played, really stepping up in the absence of his fellow five star talent. However, he'll have to contend with the experienced Shockers' front court. Jamie Echinqiue is a physical senior who won't let anything come easy for Achiuwa, and it will be a difficult matchup for him to find success. Additionally, the Shockers have multiple other front court options with size to throw at him, and he could even see some of Trey Wade if Gregg Marshall decides that the smaller player is a better matchup. On the other side of the ball, keep an eye on Erik Stevenson. While the Shockers have many different scoring options, Stevenson is the highest scoring on the year, averaging just over 14 points a game, and he's a lethal shooter from deep when he's on. He made 5 shots from behind the arc in the last game en route to a career high 29 points. If he can stay hot, he'll provide some valuable floor spacing and could torch a good Memphis D. If not, then Wichita State could struggle with all of the athleticism the Tigers have. This should be a fascinating game and a battle between the two top teams in the American.
- Purdue is in trouble as it heads to Michigan to take on the Wolverines. The Boilermakers have struggled recently, going 2-2 over their last four and are coming off of a blowout loss to Illinois. After this game, they have to go up against a Michigan State team that looks red hot right now, and then travel to Maryland to play a resurgent Terrapins team. Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off a blowout loss of their own to the aforementioned Spartans and the Wolverines have quietly lost four of their last five games against high major competition after a hot start to the season. There are absolutely no easy games in the Big Ten this year and one of these teams will be much worse off after this one. If Isaiah Livers can play for Michigan, that'd be a huge addition as I mentioned earlier. Sasha Stefanovic might be the key for Purdue. They are 4-1 when he scores in double digits and he's put up multiple 20+ point outings thanks to his sharpshooting from three point range. However, Michigan does a great job of closing out on shooters and not letting teams get the looks they want from behind the arc. If Purdue can get him going, not only will it help their offense, it will mean they've cracked a tough Michigan defense as well. That would be huge for their chance to leave Ann Arbor with a victory.
- Heading out west, two of the Pac-12's best clash when Arizona faces Oregon. The Wildcats are coming off of a huge victory over their in-state rival Sun Devils, and they will be looking to keep that momentum going on their road trip. Meanwhile, Oregon slipped up at Colorado and was locked in a tight game with Utah, and they will be looking to prove a point in this one. One of the things that stands out to me is Oregon's tendancy to give up offensive rebounds. Arizona's freshman big Zeke Nnaji has been great on the glass, grabbing 8.1 rebounds a game, and he could certainly find some easy points through that route. The Wildcats will also need Nico Mannion to step up. He only had 10 in the Arizona State win, and struggled in their three losses, noticeably from three, going just 3-20 from behind the arc. If he can get going, then they will have a big opportunity to pick up a road win. For Oregon, Anthony Mathis could be the key. The New Mexico transfer is a deadeye from behind the arc, shooting 48.7% from three on the season, but he's gone missing during their losses. He's had 12 total points on 2-13 shooting from deep during the Ducks' three losses. This matchup could come down to which team shoots it better from three point range, and Mannion and Mathis could very well be the x-factors.
- Finally, a mid-major clash between BYU and Saint Mary's. The WCC is very good this year, but these look like the two teams that could pose a threat to Gonzaga at the top of the conference. The Gaels are coming off a four overtime loss against Pacific, and they will certainly be hungry and looking to knock off a very good BYU team. Yoeli Childs recently became eligible for the Cougars, and he's clearly made a difference. They are 6-1 since he's returned and he's averaging 20.9 points and 10.1 rebounds in those seven games. Stopping him will be key for Saint Mary's, although the loss of starting center Matthias Tass to an ACL tear will make things much more difficult. Slowing down Childs' scoring may not be enough though. BYU surrounds him with four capable shooters in TJ Haws, Alex Barcello, Jake Toolson, and Dalton Nixon, and bench player Connor Harding is another three point shooter. This is a nightmare to defend and seeing how Randy Bennett chooses to attack it will be interesting. Meanwhile, BYU has to deal with the star duo of Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts. Each is averaging over 15 points a game and can score in a variety of ways. Fitts in particular could shine as BYU doesn't have an obvious answer to his physicality as a guy who can play both on the wing and the interior. I'd expect a lot of points in this one and it should be a great game.
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