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Thursday Thoughts 12/5: Buy or Sell

It's hard to believe, but we are already a month into the college basketball season. It's been a great ride thus far, with upsets galore and some enthralling games, and I can't wait for the rest of the year. Today, I decided to take a look at some things that I've been things about a little bit, and decide whether or not I think they were happen in a Buy or Sell segment. Basically, I'll give a take in bold, and then say whether I'm buying it, meaning I think it will happen, or selling it. I also got some submissions from my Twitter followers, so if you want to be involved in future articles, give me a follow on Twitter @ThreePointRange. Not only will you be able to interact with me for articles, but you'll get gambling picks (I'm hot right now going 10-3 over the last 8 days) and some more instant reactions to games. So enjoy my Buy or Sell column, and let me know if you agree with what I'm saying.

Buy or Sell
Kentucky will win the SEC: Kentucky made national news when they were taken down by Evansville at home, and the Wildcats haven't exactly impressed since then. They have failed to pull away from both Utah Valley and UAB, and there are some obvious problems with the roster at the moment. Highly touted freshman wings Khalil Whitney, Keion Brooks, and Johnny Juzang are all struggling, currently playing under 20 minutes a game each and are the three lowest scoring scholarship players. Obviously, getting little wing production has hurt John Calipari's roster flexibility and has forced him into playing with three guards and two bigs more often than I'm sure he would like. However, forward Nick Sestina is out with a broken wrist, and he isn't expected back until the beginning of SEC play. That is going to thrust the freshman trio of wings into more playing time whether they are ready or not, which I think will be good for them. The Wildcats have a fairly tough December schedule. They start off with Fairleigh Dickinson, a tournament team from last year, although they shouldn't provide too big of a challenge. They then host Georgia Tech and play Utah in Las Vegas. Those are two high major teams who will be excited to get a shot at the Wildcats. Once again, they shouldn't be too much of a problem, but they are going to be a good barometer of where the team is at, especially Whitney, Brooks, and Juzang. If they look good against high major competition, then that is a great sign. They close at the month with two teams I have ranked in the top 5 in Ohio State and Louisville, and those will be the true tests to see if Kentucky is ready for SEC play. It isn't all doom and gloom with Kentucky right now, however. Their defense has been excellent, ranking sixth in KenPom, and that was expected to be their calling card this year. Ashton Hagans and Nick Richards were good defenders last year and they are anchoring the defense now, with the former harassing opposing point guards and getting 1.7 steals a game, while the latter is erasing shots at the rim to the tune of 2.3 blocks a game. The freshman wings have the tools to be impact players on that end as well, so they should be good on that end all year. Additionally, Hagans and Richards have taken steps forward offensively, although once again, they aren't playing against the best competition. Still, Hagans' 13 points and 6.4 assists a game is a welcome sight after struggling offensively as a freshman, and Richards averaging 14.3 is something I certainly didn't anticipate. Plus, sophomores Immanuel Quickley and EJ Montgomery look more comfortable and freshman guard Tyrese Maxey is a scoring machine, having dropped 26 against Michigan State in the season opener, a game which Kentucky did win. The biggest reason I still believe in the Wildcats is the track record of John Calipari. His teams consistently get better as the year goes on. With time, all of the new pieces gel and they establish an identity. They have failed to win 12 SEC games twice in Calipari's tenure, and I see no reason why they can't win 13-15 SEC games this season. It's still unclear who will challenge them at the top, although Auburn looks like their biggest challenger. Florida has failed to live up to preseason expectations, Tennessee and Arkansas have exceeded them, and LSU is still lurking as well. I think Kentucky is at least on par with, if not better than, every one of those teams, so even if they don't win the league outright, I expect them to get a share of the title behind a strong defense and some internal improvement as the season goes on.
Verdict: BUY


Georgia will make the tournament: Onto a different SEC team now, the Georgia Bulldogs. Coming into the season, I was very high on Georgia. They had a top 10 recruiting class headlined by Anthony Edwards, the number two player in the class, and four other four star prospects were joining him, plus some solid returners like Rayshaun Hammonds and Tyree Crump. I thought Tom Crean could maximize Edwards' talent and turn this into one that would be playing in March. Thus far, I look like a fool. They are 5-2 with their best winning coming over Georgia Tech and they looked outclassed in Maui against Dayton and Michigan State. Edwards has been as advertised, averaging 20.6 points on admittedly high shot volume, and Hammonds is averaging 14.1 points and 8.9 rebounds a game, proving to be a capable secondary scorer. However, the only other freshman making an impact is Sahvir Wheeler, while wings Toumani Camara, Christian Brown, and Jaykwon Walton have barely made an impact. The Bulldogs are struggling to make shots from deep and their defense has been a worry. Still, Edwards has looked great, so he can lead them to the tournament by himself, right? I don't think so. I looked back, and since 2010, there have been 8 instances of a team with a top 10 recruit missing the NCAA tournament (Charles Bassey and Romeo Langford in 2019, Markelle Fultz and Dennis Smith in 2017, Ben Simmons, Malik Newman, and Henry Ellison in 2016, Rashad Vaughn in 2015, Nerlens Noel, Alex Poythress, and Isaiah Austin in 2013, LeBryan Nash in 2012, Perry Jones and CJ Leslie in 2011, Renardo Sidney, Lance Stephenson, and Keith Gallon in 2010). Fultz is probably the closest comparison here, as he was outstanding at Washington, becoming the number one pick in the NBA Draft, but Washington itself went 9-22 and won 2 Pac 12 games. I do not expect Georgia to be that bad, but there is plenty of precedent for a team with a very skilled player missing the NCAA Tournament. I don't know if this team has what it takes to compete with the best teams in the SEC, and I think they end up missing out on March Madness, even if Edwards has a great year.
Verdict: SELL


DePaul will make the tournament: I'm all in on DePaul right now. They are coming off a big win over Texas Tech, and I'm writing this in the afterglow of that win. They hold victories over the Red Raiders, Minnesota, and Iowa, and the Blue Demons have looked good this year. Charlie Moore, the Kansas transfer, is playing the best basketball of his life, Paul Reed has taken a step forward and looks like an NBA prospect, Jalen Coleman-Lands is a sharpshooter from the wing, Romeo Weems does a little bit of everything, and Jaylen Butz is a solid big. Throw in the play of Darious Hall, Devin  Gage, and Markese Jacobs off the bench, and they are a rock solid team. They shine in transition, and have no problems getting buckets in the half court either. They aren't great defensively, but I trust the offense to put up plenty of points. I admittedly had this topic before they beat Texas Tech, but I truly believe that DePaul will be competing in the top half of the Big East and earn themselves a tournament berth, even though they are DePaul.
Verdict: BUY


The Big Ten gets seven bids: The Big Ten has been a very good college basketball conference, with programs such as Michigan State and Purdue providing success year in and year out. This question is whether or not they can get half of their league into the tournament. Looking at it now, I feel very confident that 5 teams will end up dancing at the end of the year. Ohio State, Michigan, Maryland, and the aforementioned Michigan State and Purdue are all close to locks to end up in the field at the end of the year. The Spartans haven't impressed thus far, and neither have the Boilermakers, but the track record of success with those schools is too great to ignore, so I'll give Tom Izzo and Matt Painter the benefit of the doubt for now. That leaves two bids up for grabs. Indiana has looked good so far, beating Florida State at home on Tuesday, and Penn State looks good as well early on. Iowa has been up and down, as they decimated Syracuse and beat Texas Tech, but were blown out by DePaul and struggled with San Diego State. Rutgers and Illinois are both 6-2, but neither has looked capable of competing with high major competition. Wisconsin is always a threat, but they are just 4-3, and I don't think they have the talent level. I'd say Indiana, Penn State, and Iowa are the biggest contenders for the two spots, and I think only one of them makes it. I really liked what I saw from Indiana against Florida State, but I don't think they can count on 30 from Devonte Green every night, so questions remain. I'm not a believer in Penn State, as they blew a huge lead in a loss to Mississippi and also beat Syracuse by a lot, which really shows where my beloved Orange are at the moment more than being a quality win for either the Nittany Lions or Hawkeyes. I don't fully trust their guard play yet, so I'm still pessimistic on their long term outlook. Iowa is very inconsistent as I mentioned earlier, and they have injury issues, which could hold them back from reaching their ceiling. There are too many questions with these teams for me to say they that all avoid bad losses to teams like Nebraska and Northwestern, and I think the Big Ten only ends up with 6 bids. Would it shock me if all three made it giving the league 8 teams in the tournament for the second straight year? No, but I'll go a little bold and say only Penn State makes it in while Indiana and Iowa are on the wrong side of the bubble.
Verdict: SELL


The Pac-12 will get six bids: The Pac-12 was the laughing stock of college basketball last year. Per KenPom, they were seventh best in the country, behind the American, and only had three teams make the tournament. Washington was a 9 seed, Arizona State was in the play in game, and Oregon was the winner of the conference tournament and a 12 seed. Not the best showing for the Conference of Champions. However, they have come out of the gates hot to start 2019-20. Arizona and Colorado are both undefeated at the moment, Oregon has only lost to Gonzaga and North Carolina, Washington fell to Baylor, Arizona State lost to Colorado and Virginia, USC lost to Temple and Marquette, Stanford to Butler, and Oregon State to Oklahoma. That's not including a UCLA team coached by Mick Cronin that has looked good at times or a Utah team that just knocked off BYU and has shown flashes. Looking at it now, there are four Top 25 caliber teams in Arizona, Oregon, Washington, and Colorado. I'd be pretty shocked if any one of those four missed the tournament, getting them two thirds of the way to having half of their league in the tournament. I think Arizona State will get there as well, as I love watching the Sun Devils play and I believe in Bobby Hurley and the talent in that program. That leaves one of USC, Stanford, Oregon State, and UCLA to grab a bid, something that I think is more than reasonable. Stanford has impressed early on, beating Oklahoma and freshman guard Tyrell Terry has been a revelation for the Cardinal. USC has also had a hot start from a freshman, forward Onyeka Okongwu, and the Trojans have an imposing front line and athletes all over the court. UCLA is taking time to round into form, but Cronin has instilled a more defensive mentality in the team that could pick them up enough wins to get them into the Big Dance, and Oregon State has Tres Tinkle, a true superstar that could lead the Beavers to the tournament. I honestly think this league gets six, maybe even seven, bids in March and proves to be much improved from last year.
Verdict: BUY 


Oregon will win the Pac 12: Speaking of the Pac-12, I want to look at the top of the conference. As mentioned, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington are all very good squads that should compete for the conference championship. The consensus seems to be that Oregon is the team to beat, and with good reason. They bring back multiple pieces from last year's Sweet Sixteen team, and have a good recruiting class plus some impact transfers. The star is senior point guard Payton Pritchard, who is currently averaging 18.6 points and 5.5 assists. He has been a steady presence for the Ducks, and is one of the best players in the conference. Also returning are sophomores Will Richardson and Francis Okoro, who are providing some really good minutes on the wing and at center respectively. They have also added transfers Shakur Juiston from UNLV, who currently leads the team in rebounding, and Anthony Mathis from New Mexico, who is very close with Pritchard and is shooting close to 50% from three. Their recruiting class ranked fourth in the nation, with forwards CJ Walker and Chandler Lawson, wing Addison Patterson, and junior college guard Chris Duarte. All of them have contributed early on, with Duarte being the best thus far, and they get five star center N'Faly Dante eligible for their next game, making them even more formidable. They have a potent offense with multiple shooters, and Dante should help clean up the defense with his shot blocking ability. However, I don't think they are a clear cut favorite. Arizona has just as much talent, with a talented freshman trio Nico Mannion, Josh Green, and Zeke Nnaji, plus some more than capable role players, and they have looked great so far this year. Washington has an impressive win over Baylor and a talented roster of their own, with five star freshman Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels in the front court, Kentucky transfer Quade Green running point, and Naz Carter enjoying a breakout year. Don't overlook Colorado either, as they have an experienced group that has been good to start the season. I don't think the gap between Oregon and the rest of these groups is big, if it even exists at all, and I don't feel comfortable saying they win the league, especially not outright. There are four teams that I think have a legit shot, so I'll take the field rather than the Ducks for this one, not because they aren't capable, but because there are too many possibilities. 
Verdict: SELL


Fan Section

Xavier is a national title contender: Thanks to Zack for this one. Xavier is a very interesting case to me. They sit at 8-1, and have a great roster, with plenty of proven Big East players, led by forward Najo Marshall, guard Paul Scruggs and forward Tyrique Jones. Those three are all averaging over 14 points a game, and the Musketeers are one of the better defensive teams in the country thanks to their physical style of play. They have also been without their highest ranked recruit, KyKy Tandy, who is a high scoring guard that should help out the team with some of the offensive struggles they have experienced thus far. However, I'm not even sold on them being a Big East title contender. There is some untangable quality to them that makes me not want to trust them. They seem to ugly up, for lack of a better team, every game, preferring to play very close contests in the low sixties, and I think that style is a very tough line to walk. They needed overtime to beat Missouri and Connecticut, took down Missouri State by 3 late, and lost to a Florida team still searching for its best form. The offense hasn't proven it to me yet, mostly because of their poor shooting. All of the aforementioned players struggle to make shots from behind the arc, and senior guard Quentin Goodin has seemingly regressed as a player this year. The hope is that Tandy, along with more minutes for Western Michigan transfer Bryce Moore, will help the offense, but I'm not sold on their impact being large enough to iron out these issues. They play in a tough conference, and Villanova, Seton Hall, Butler, DePaul, and even Marquette and Creighton will push them night in and night out. If they can figure things out offensively and show me more during Big East play, then maybe. But from what I've seen so far, their ceiling looks more like the second weekend rather than a National Championship run. 
Verdict: SELL



Louisville will win the ACC: Thanks to Alex for a good question. Louisville is the current number one team in the country, and they just shut down a Michigan team that was riding high after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis. Their defense looked super legit, further proving how good of a coach Chris Mack is, and their offense is no slouch either. Led by superstar Nigerian forward Jordan Nwora, an All American contender averaging 21.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and shooting 46.7% from three, they have KenPom's third best offensive efficiency, plus the fourth best defensive efficiency. They have a group of very good role players in Dwayne Sutton, Stephen Enoch, Ryan McMahon, Samuel Williamson, Darius Perry, Lamarr Kimble, and Malik Williams. They all know their roles and perform them very well. For instance, Sutton's job is to do the dirty work defensively to allow Nwora to shine offensively, and he does it with no complaints, leading the team in rebounds and placing second in steals. McMahon, meanwhile, is there to shoot threes and space the floor. He isn't trying to be a playmaker, he simply spots up and runs off screens and is making 50% of his threes on the year thus far. They have certainly been very impressive, but they aren't without their challengers. Admittedly, it's hard to be excited about North Carolina and Virginia after their displays tonight, but the fact remains that Cole Anthony is one of the best point guards in America and the Cavalier's defense is disgustingly good. Still, both teams have major offensive question marks that they need to solve before they can be tossed around with Louisville. That leaves everyones favorite team, the Duke Blue Devils. They are coming off a very convincing win over Michigan State, and they look like they can push Louisville. Point guard Tre Jones has taken a leap as a scorer during his sophomore year, and with talented freshman center Vernon Carey, they look to be a force. Add in Matthew Hurt and a healthy Cassius Stanley, and this team will be a threat during ACC play, and they look like they are only getting better. Their defense has been impressive, and they are slowly but surely figuring out what they are offensively. The worry with the Cardinals is that they have already peaked and don't have room to grow as the season goes on, while Duke will continue to get better and better. However, I think Louisville will be much more consistent and won't drop games they shouldn't *cough* Stephen F Austin *cough*, while the Blue Devils will go through more growing pains, possibly experiencing higher highs but also lower lows. Given the state of college basketball this year, I think the consistency will serve Louisville well and I think they capture an ACC title.
Verdict: BUY

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