The 2019 NBA Draft is rapidly approaching and I find this year's draft in particular incredibly fascinating. I just have a ton of thoughts I wanted to write about, and even though I am typically more of a college basketball fan, I wanted to write about all of this. I have a view different things I wanted to write about, so I've broken it up into a few different sections to get some stuff that has been bouncing around in my head out and just have a discussion online. Let me know what you think of all of this on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and be sure to follow me there for updates on what I'm writing (I'll probably have a mock draft out later today) and my thoughts on all things basketball, including live reactions during the draft. I always love to interact with people, so let me know all of your thoughts there.
Trades
Anthony Davis to the Lakers
So this is the big one. The Pelicans traded their unhappy franchise cornerstone to LA in return for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, the #4 pick, and multiple future picks. For the Pelicans, this was absolutely a win, gaining multiple talented young players as well as future draft assets to build around Zion Williamson. Ball should be great next to Jrue Holiday, forming one of the better defensive backcourts in the NBA immediately and allowing Lonzo to play a little more freely and play in transition where he excelled at UCLA. I can already see the lobs to Zion and they are glorious. Ingram started to scratch his potential before getting injured last season, and he should fit with the pace and space type game that Lonzo and Zion thrive in. His jumper is still developing, but I think there is a lot of potential, and he has begun to add strength to his frame, which can make him a lethal scorer. Hart is a solid role player, and the draft picks, especially the ones in 2024 and 2025, could end up playing huge dividends. The fourth pick could be moved, more on that in a second, but if not, they get another talented young player. For the Lakers, sure, they gave up a lot, but they got back a legitimate superstar and top-10 talent. The Lebron-AD pick and rolls are going to be so much fun, and those two are instantly one of the top duos in the NBA, and they have cap space, maybe max space if they wait long enough, to bring in talent around those two, as well as Kyle Kuzma, who they managed to keep. And sure, 5 years down the line this trade could come back to bite them. However, I think the Lakers have a very real shot to win an NBA Championship as things stand, and that is ultimately the goal here. If you win the title, who cares if you don't have a pick in 2024. Plus, LeBron won't be this good forever, and they have to maximize the end of his prime in hopes of winning. This is one of those deals that works for both teams and ultimately fits with what each is trying to do.
Mike Conley to the Jazz
The Grit and Grind Grizzlies are dead. Mike Conley, the lone member of that core, was traded to Utah for Grayson Allen, Jae Crowded, Kyle Korver, the 23rd pick, and a protected future first round pick. For the Jazz, they get a great backcourt pairing of Conley and Donovan Mitchell and, along with Rudy Gobert and Joe Ingles, have a really strong core in an unstable Western Conference picture. They will need to add more shooting this offseason, but they are in position to make a serious run in the playoffs. For the Grizzlies, they are pivoting to rebuilding, with some really interesting young pieces. They already have a top 5 pick in Jaren Jackson, and will likely add Ja Morant with the second overall pick later tonight. They add in Allen, who struggled in his rookie year but can be a knockdown shooter and grow with their core, as well as two veterans who they can probably move to a contender for either a second round pick or take on a bad contract for draft picks. They also have options at 23 and likely a pick two or three years in the future given the protections on the pick. It will be tough for Grizzlies fans to say goodbye to a franchise legend, but this ultimately kicks off the new era of Grizzlies basketball, while the Jazz set themselves up for a playoff run.
Nets and Hawks
This trade is pretty simple, with the Hawks taking on the contract of Allen Crabbe to get the seventeenth pick, and sending Taurean Prince to Brooklyn. For the Nets, they get a solid player, but mostly they opened up a second max cap spot for this offseason. It obviously makes sense for them given they are considered the favorites for Kyrie Irving and are also in play for Tobias Harris, D'Angelo Russell, Kawhi Leonard, and others. I also think the Hawks made a great move here. They clearly aren't trying to compete next year, and they used their cap room to acquire a draft pick this year and a lottery protected pick next year that can yield players who can grow next to Trae Young, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, and the rest of their young players. The Nets employed that tactic during their rebuild, the DeMarre Carroll deal immediately comes to mind, and I think it should be more widespread by rebuilding teams to acquire more useful players that fit with their core. I just wanted to touch on this deal here and that
Potential Moves to Watch
The #4 Pick
Almost as soon as the Lakers traded this pick to New Orleans, there was speculation that the Pelicans were shopping it, and according to reports, the Pelicans had been having discussions with teams before the deal was even finalized. There are many teams who would be interested in trading up to get Darius Garland, who likely won't get past the sixth pick. The Bulls, Suns, and Magic are all teams that have obvious needs at point guard, and they could be looking to move up. The Celtics could also be a sneaky suitor, with their three first round picks and possibly a need at point guard if they don't believe in Terry Rozier. The Hawks could also be in play, although they would likely draft the wing player of their choosing. I have no idea where this pick ends up, it's probably the Hawks, but this is a situation to monitor throughout the day.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are suddenly in a position to make waves on draft night. Not only do they have three first rounders this year, but they have some attractive future picks and a plethora of young talent like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Their two best players, Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, are both free agents and are apparently unlikely to resign with the team. Given their lack of cap space, packing some picks to move up in the draft and select an NBA ready player that can help them immediately and fit more with the timelines of Tatum, Brown, Marcus Smart, and the rest of their core. They could also make an play at a star, although most of the big names on the market have already been traded. Maybe they make a run at Bradley Beal, who I'll get to in a minute? I would also keep an eye on Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans haven't shown any indication they are going to trade him, but they could be tempted by some more picks both this year and in the future to help their rebuilding effort while Boston gets their lead guard. I would bet on them making some sort of move in the draft.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are another team with a ton of draft assets. They already sold off a second round pick to the Heat. They have three of the first top 17 picks and two in the top 10. They have been rumored to be looking into moving up to 4 or 5 to get their guy, who could be either Culver or Hunter, who really knows. They have a really good core of Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, and John Collins, and they may value having one really good player over two solid ones. They have the picks necessary to make a move and they could be ready to pounce.
Bradley Beal
Beal is a legitimate superstar and on a very bad Wizards team with little agency to improve thanks to John Wall's massive contract, so he's a prime trade candidate, and he could fetch a huge price. However, the Wizards don't have a GM, and they may want to hold off on making such a huge move until after they have clarity in the front office. But they aren't known for their front office wisdom, and if they choose to trade Beal on draft night, they would get a major haul, likely including multiple firsts and young players. I doubt he's on the move, but it's something to monitor as the season goes on.
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are in such a bad place. They have absolutely no money to spend, they have Kemba Walker as a free agent and he looks like he has one foot out the door, and they don't have any super promising young players. I think this could be a prime year for them to attach a draft pick to a bad contract like Nicholas Batum to try and create some sort of long term flexibility. Fun fact: they are paying Bismack Biyombo $17 million next year. Given that this is viewed as a down draft, moving what could be a less than stellar lottery pick to help their cap sheet out. I don't have any inside sources or anything, but this seems like it could be a smart move.
De'Andre Hunter vs Cam Reddish and a Discussion about Context
De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish are two polar opposite prospects. Hunter is a super polished prospect who projects as an immediate impact player defensively and is continuing to improve offensively and will eventually be a rock solid starter as a 3 and D player. Meanwhile, Reddish was inconsistent at Duke but showed flashes of being a superstar who is a fluid athlete with ball handling potential at 6'8" and a good looking jump shot. I have these two guys 4 and 5 on my Big Board, which you can see below, and I think they will both be very good NBA players, but they are such different players that I wanted to talk about them. I think who you want more depends on what your franchise needs. The Cavs have the fifth pick, and both of them are being discussed as potential options. I would take Reddish, because they are in a rebuild and I think they need to shoot higher to try and acquire a franchise talent. However, if I'm the Pelicans at 4, I think I would take Hunter. They have a chance at making the playoffs and they don't need a star since they have Zion, so they go with the proven thing that can fill a role. I think this is what makes creating a big board so hard. I think evaluating players is pretty context dependent and where your franchise is heading in the next few years and your current roster means so much in evaluating players, and that isn't taken into account a lot of the time when I think it should be. I get that a big board is just ranking talent, but comparing potential to proven production and team fit is so important in the process that I think that really needs to be taken into account.
Why Returning to School Isn't Always the Best Option
My Big Board
Trades
Anthony Davis to the Lakers
So this is the big one. The Pelicans traded their unhappy franchise cornerstone to LA in return for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, the #4 pick, and multiple future picks. For the Pelicans, this was absolutely a win, gaining multiple talented young players as well as future draft assets to build around Zion Williamson. Ball should be great next to Jrue Holiday, forming one of the better defensive backcourts in the NBA immediately and allowing Lonzo to play a little more freely and play in transition where he excelled at UCLA. I can already see the lobs to Zion and they are glorious. Ingram started to scratch his potential before getting injured last season, and he should fit with the pace and space type game that Lonzo and Zion thrive in. His jumper is still developing, but I think there is a lot of potential, and he has begun to add strength to his frame, which can make him a lethal scorer. Hart is a solid role player, and the draft picks, especially the ones in 2024 and 2025, could end up playing huge dividends. The fourth pick could be moved, more on that in a second, but if not, they get another talented young player. For the Lakers, sure, they gave up a lot, but they got back a legitimate superstar and top-10 talent. The Lebron-AD pick and rolls are going to be so much fun, and those two are instantly one of the top duos in the NBA, and they have cap space, maybe max space if they wait long enough, to bring in talent around those two, as well as Kyle Kuzma, who they managed to keep. And sure, 5 years down the line this trade could come back to bite them. However, I think the Lakers have a very real shot to win an NBA Championship as things stand, and that is ultimately the goal here. If you win the title, who cares if you don't have a pick in 2024. Plus, LeBron won't be this good forever, and they have to maximize the end of his prime in hopes of winning. This is one of those deals that works for both teams and ultimately fits with what each is trying to do.
Mike Conley to the Jazz
The Grit and Grind Grizzlies are dead. Mike Conley, the lone member of that core, was traded to Utah for Grayson Allen, Jae Crowded, Kyle Korver, the 23rd pick, and a protected future first round pick. For the Jazz, they get a great backcourt pairing of Conley and Donovan Mitchell and, along with Rudy Gobert and Joe Ingles, have a really strong core in an unstable Western Conference picture. They will need to add more shooting this offseason, but they are in position to make a serious run in the playoffs. For the Grizzlies, they are pivoting to rebuilding, with some really interesting young pieces. They already have a top 5 pick in Jaren Jackson, and will likely add Ja Morant with the second overall pick later tonight. They add in Allen, who struggled in his rookie year but can be a knockdown shooter and grow with their core, as well as two veterans who they can probably move to a contender for either a second round pick or take on a bad contract for draft picks. They also have options at 23 and likely a pick two or three years in the future given the protections on the pick. It will be tough for Grizzlies fans to say goodbye to a franchise legend, but this ultimately kicks off the new era of Grizzlies basketball, while the Jazz set themselves up for a playoff run.
Nets and Hawks
This trade is pretty simple, with the Hawks taking on the contract of Allen Crabbe to get the seventeenth pick, and sending Taurean Prince to Brooklyn. For the Nets, they get a solid player, but mostly they opened up a second max cap spot for this offseason. It obviously makes sense for them given they are considered the favorites for Kyrie Irving and are also in play for Tobias Harris, D'Angelo Russell, Kawhi Leonard, and others. I also think the Hawks made a great move here. They clearly aren't trying to compete next year, and they used their cap room to acquire a draft pick this year and a lottery protected pick next year that can yield players who can grow next to Trae Young, John Collins, Kevin Huerter, and the rest of their young players. The Nets employed that tactic during their rebuild, the DeMarre Carroll deal immediately comes to mind, and I think it should be more widespread by rebuilding teams to acquire more useful players that fit with their core. I just wanted to touch on this deal here and that
Potential Moves to Watch
The #4 Pick
Almost as soon as the Lakers traded this pick to New Orleans, there was speculation that the Pelicans were shopping it, and according to reports, the Pelicans had been having discussions with teams before the deal was even finalized. There are many teams who would be interested in trading up to get Darius Garland, who likely won't get past the sixth pick. The Bulls, Suns, and Magic are all teams that have obvious needs at point guard, and they could be looking to move up. The Celtics could also be a sneaky suitor, with their three first round picks and possibly a need at point guard if they don't believe in Terry Rozier. The Hawks could also be in play, although they would likely draft the wing player of their choosing. I have no idea where this pick ends up, it's probably the Hawks, but this is a situation to monitor throughout the day.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are suddenly in a position to make waves on draft night. Not only do they have three first rounders this year, but they have some attractive future picks and a plethora of young talent like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Their two best players, Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, are both free agents and are apparently unlikely to resign with the team. Given their lack of cap space, packing some picks to move up in the draft and select an NBA ready player that can help them immediately and fit more with the timelines of Tatum, Brown, Marcus Smart, and the rest of their core. They could also make an play at a star, although most of the big names on the market have already been traded. Maybe they make a run at Bradley Beal, who I'll get to in a minute? I would also keep an eye on Jrue Holiday. The Pelicans haven't shown any indication they are going to trade him, but they could be tempted by some more picks both this year and in the future to help their rebuilding effort while Boston gets their lead guard. I would bet on them making some sort of move in the draft.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are another team with a ton of draft assets. They already sold off a second round pick to the Heat. They have three of the first top 17 picks and two in the top 10. They have been rumored to be looking into moving up to 4 or 5 to get their guy, who could be either Culver or Hunter, who really knows. They have a really good core of Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, and John Collins, and they may value having one really good player over two solid ones. They have the picks necessary to make a move and they could be ready to pounce.
Bradley Beal
Beal is a legitimate superstar and on a very bad Wizards team with little agency to improve thanks to John Wall's massive contract, so he's a prime trade candidate, and he could fetch a huge price. However, the Wizards don't have a GM, and they may want to hold off on making such a huge move until after they have clarity in the front office. But they aren't known for their front office wisdom, and if they choose to trade Beal on draft night, they would get a major haul, likely including multiple firsts and young players. I doubt he's on the move, but it's something to monitor as the season goes on.
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are in such a bad place. They have absolutely no money to spend, they have Kemba Walker as a free agent and he looks like he has one foot out the door, and they don't have any super promising young players. I think this could be a prime year for them to attach a draft pick to a bad contract like Nicholas Batum to try and create some sort of long term flexibility. Fun fact: they are paying Bismack Biyombo $17 million next year. Given that this is viewed as a down draft, moving what could be a less than stellar lottery pick to help their cap sheet out. I don't have any inside sources or anything, but this seems like it could be a smart move.
De'Andre Hunter vs Cam Reddish and a Discussion about Context
De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish are two polar opposite prospects. Hunter is a super polished prospect who projects as an immediate impact player defensively and is continuing to improve offensively and will eventually be a rock solid starter as a 3 and D player. Meanwhile, Reddish was inconsistent at Duke but showed flashes of being a superstar who is a fluid athlete with ball handling potential at 6'8" and a good looking jump shot. I have these two guys 4 and 5 on my Big Board, which you can see below, and I think they will both be very good NBA players, but they are such different players that I wanted to talk about them. I think who you want more depends on what your franchise needs. The Cavs have the fifth pick, and both of them are being discussed as potential options. I would take Reddish, because they are in a rebuild and I think they need to shoot higher to try and acquire a franchise talent. However, if I'm the Pelicans at 4, I think I would take Hunter. They have a chance at making the playoffs and they don't need a star since they have Zion, so they go with the proven thing that can fill a role. I think this is what makes creating a big board so hard. I think evaluating players is pretty context dependent and where your franchise is heading in the next few years and your current roster means so much in evaluating players, and that isn't taken into account a lot of the time when I think it should be. I get that a big board is just ranking talent, but comparing potential to proven production and team fit is so important in the process that I think that really needs to be taken into account.
Why Returning to School Isn't Always the Best Option
Every person has the right to decide what's in the best interests of their own future, but hard not to wonder if some of these underclassmen who aren't on any NBA Draft Boards are re-thinking their decisions after seeing what four years of college seasoning did for Fred VanVleet.— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) June 14, 2019
I've seen a lot of tweets like this one in recent weeks, and I think a lot of the logic is flawed. The first part of the tweet is very important. It is up to the players to decide what they want to do, and I think you can argue that having a player develop in the NBA is better than in college. I also don't think coming back to college is as great as people make it out to be. Look back to last year's draft, the three likely first round picks who returned to college were De'Andre Hunter, Daniel Gafford and Jontay Porter. Hunter did a great job back at Virginia and turned himself from a borderline lottery pick to a top 5 type guy. Meanwhile, Gafford only hurt his draft stock by returning to Arkansas, where he was used in post up situations instead of being a rim runner and in pick and roll situations, and his stock feel. Finally, Porter tore his ACL for the second time and dropped from a borderline lottery guy to a likely second round pick. So one of those three guys got better in their extra year at college. Now, this isn't a full study into this and plenty of players help themselves by returning to school, but I don't think it's a must. People were also using the Warriors and Raptors' starting lineups in the Finals, which had no one and done players, as data. That's just dumb in my opinion. That's conveniently leaving out the injured Kevin Durant, who is also a top 3 player in the league. The best player in the league for the past decade didn't even go to college. Anthony Davis is a top ten talent and spent one year at Kentucky. Kyrie Irving is one of the best free agents and most talented point guards in the league, one year in school. Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Karl-Anthony Towns, John Wall, Derrick Rose, and DeMarcus Cousins are either some of the best players in the league now or were at one point and went one and done. I love college basketball, and I enjoy it when the best players are able to play on the college floor, but I don't think it's a necessity for prospects to go back and get better if they believe they can be an NBA player right away.
My Big Board
1. Zion Williamson, PF, Duke
2. RJ Barrett, SG, Duke
3. Ja Morant, PG, Murray State
4. De'Andre Hunter, SF, Virginia
5. Cam Reddish, SF, Duke
6. Darius Garland, PG, Vanderbilt
7. Jarrett Culver, SG, Texas Tech
8. Coby White, PG, North Carolina
9. Brandon Clarke, PF, Gonzaga
10 Sekou Doumbouya, SF, France
11. Jaxson Hayes, C, Texas
12. Romeo Langford, SG, Indiana
13. Goga Bitzade, C, Georgia (Republic of)
14. PJ Washington, PF, Kentucky
15. Keldon Johnson, SF, Kentucky
16. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG, Virginia Tech
17. Rui Hachimura, PF, Gonzaga
18. KZ Okpala, SF, Stanford
19. Kevin Porter Jr, SG, USC
20. Tyler Herro, SG, Kentucky
21. Bruno Fernando, C, Maryland
22. Nassir Little, SF, North Carolina
23. Dylan Windler, SF, Belmont
24. Ty Jerome, SG, Virginia
25. Mfioundu Kabengele, C, Florida State
26. Matisse Thybulle, SF, Washington
27. Cameron Johnson, SF, North Carolina
28. Nic Claxton, C, Georgia (University of)
29. Daniel Gafford, C, Arkansas
30. Carsen Edwards, SG, Purdue
31. Luka Samanic, PF, Serbia
32. Bol Bol, C, Oregon
33. Grant Williams, PF, Tennessee
34. Luguentz Dort, SG, Arizona State
35. Eric Paschall, SF, Villanova
36. Admiral Schofield, SF, Tennessee
37. Chuma Okeke, PF, Auburn
38. Darius Bazely, PF, New Balance
39. Jalen McDaniels, PF, San Diego State
40. Jontay Porter, C, Missouri
41. Louis King, SF, Oregon
42. Miye Oni, SF, Yale
43. Talen Horton-Tucker, SG, Iowa State
44. Naz Reid, C, LSU
45. Kyle Guy, SG, Virginia
46. Isaiah Roby, PF, Nebraska
47. Terance Davis, SG, Mississippi
48. Deividas Sirvydis, PF, Lithuania
49. Phil Booth, SG, Villanova
50. Shamorie Ponds, PG, St. John's
51. Jaylen Hoard, PF, Wake Forest
52. Charles Matthews, SF, Michigan
53. Tremont Waters, PG, LSU
54. Zach Norvell, SG, Gonzaga
55. Terance Mann, SG, Florida State
56. Yovel Zoosman, SF, Israel
57. Oshae Brissett, PF, Syracuse
58. Jalen Lecque, PG, Brewster Academy
59. Tyus Battle, SG, Syracuse
60. DaQuan Jeffries, SF, Tulsa
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