Today is both a day of joy and sadness. On one hand, the NCAA Tournament will reach it's climax tonight as Villanova faces off against Michigan for the right to be called national champion. On the other, after the final buzzer sounds, we are officially in the college basketball offseason and will have to wait until November for more college hoops action. I will quickly recap the two previous matchups before previewing the main event.
Michigan 69-57 Loyola-Chicago
- Moritz Wagner saves his best performances for the big stage. Last tournament, he led the 7-seeded Wolverines to a defeat of the #2 seed Louisville Cardinals, scoring 26 points, and earlier this season he scored a career high 27 points against rival Michigan State. He bested those performances on Saturday night in San Antonio, scoring 24 points and getting a career high 15 rebounds. He was especially impressive on the offensive glass, getting six boards on the offensive end, and the Ramblers had no answer for him. If they put Cameron Krutwig on him, Mo used his advantage in athleticism to get it on the perimeter and drive past the less mobile big or shoot a 3, making three on the game. If they put a smaller defender on him, Wagner went to the post where his size was a problem and his man couldn't box him out. It will be interesting to see how he follows up a historic performance in the finals.
- How good has Michigan's defense been this season? Ever since losing to Nebraska by 20 in mid-January, they have allowed 70+ points just 5 times, and only twice during the postseason. They lock down opposing teams and use their slower offensive pace to wear down opposing teams. After a 6 minute stretch without a timeout, Loyola was visibly exhausted and had to commit a cheap foul just to stop the clock. That stretch started with the Wolverines forcing five straight turnovers and secured their lead for good. It isn’t a classic John Beilein team, but they’ve won on the back of their defense.
- Loyola-Chicago has nothing to be ashamed of. They went on one of the most inspiring runs in tournament history and had an excellent overall season. Seniors and long time teammates Ben Richardson and Clayton Custer had incredible careers and were a crucial portion of this team that knocked off Florida in the regular season, won the Missouri Valley Conference with little resistance, and of course captured the hearts of America with their run which included wins over Miami, Tennessee, Nevada, and Kansas State. This was the program’s best season since they won it all in 1966 and they are set up well to continue their success for the rest of Porter Moser’s reign.
- Loyola-Chicago has nothing to be ashamed of. They went on one of the most inspiring runs in tournament history and had an excellent overall season. Seniors and long time teammates Ben Richardson and Clayton Custer had incredible careers and were a crucial portion of this team that knocked off Florida in the regular season, won the Missouri Valley Conference with little resistance, and of course captured the hearts of America with their run which included wins over Miami, Tennessee, Nevada, and Kansas State. This was the program’s best season since they won it all in 1966 and they are set up well to continue their success for the rest of Porter Moser’s reign.
Villanova 95-79 Kansas
- Wow. That's all that came to mind watching Villanova face Kansas. They were white hot in the first half, making 13 of their 26 threes on their way to 47 points. Their offense is breathtaking to watch, as they always make the extra pass to ensure that they get the best possible look. Everyone on the court can shoot for the Wildcats, as center Omari Spellman actually leads the team with a 43.9% three point percentage, and all of their 7 regulars shoot above 35.7% from deep. They also share the ball beautifully, as mentioned above, getting 20 assists against the Jayhawks, and were fourth in the nation with 16.6 assists a game. This is one of the best offenses of the 2010s and they've been firing on all cylinders since the beginning of March, averaging 86.4 points a game.
- Omari Spellman has really emerged as a burgeoning star and possible first round pick recently. The 6'9" redshirt freshman has really come alive and has been fabulous for the Wildcats of late. As their only really interior presense, he is relied upon as the main rebounder and post defender and he creates matchup problems for opposing bigs. Sagaba Konate and Udoka Azubuike, two high quality bigs, couldn't guard him as they were dragged out onto the perimeter and were neutralized as lane protectors. He shoots it very well as mentioned above, and he is a great athlete who can score inside as well. He had 15 points and 13 rebounds against Kansas, so he comes into this one hot.
- It can't be overstated how well both of these coaches adapted. Bill Self has traditionally played with a high-low set, but in the absence of a solid power forward to pair with Udoka Azubuike, he went to a 4 out, 1 in system that worked wonders for the Jayhawks this season. Devonte' Graham, Malik Newman, Svi Mykhailiuk and Lagerald Vick were all very capable wings and they were all key in Kansas' 14th straight Big 12 title this season. As for Jay Wright, he has fully embraced the three point revolution, as Villanova took the fifth most threes per possession in the country this season, and it paid off in a big way. They made the most in Division One and shot 40.1% from three point range. They are uber-efficient, rarely taking long twos and getting assists on a lot of their baskets. This was a heavyweight coaching matchup, and GQ Jay won it.
Final Prediction
This is an intriguing matchup. It also features two of the top coaches in the country in Jay Wright and John Beilein, and a classic strength vs strength matchup. Villanova is one of the best three point shooting teams in the country, and Michigan defends the three point line as well as any team in the country. While Villanova shoots threes on 47.5% of their possession and makes 40.1% of their attempts from downtown, Michigan excels at closing out on shooters and limiting teams from downtown, with opposing teams only taking 29.9% of their shots from downtown, fifth lowest in the country, and making just 32.7%. Villanova thrives at getting points in transitions, and Michigan is also very good at stopping transition buckets since they rarely turn it over. The key matchups in this one will be Zavier Simpson guarding Jalen Brunson, Charles Mathews vs Mikal Bridges, and Omari Spellman covering Mortiz Wagner. First off, Brunson, the National Player of the Year, is one of the best players in the country and nearly impossible to stop. However, the pesky 6'0" guard for Michigan might be able to. He's been an excellent defender all season, averaging 1.3 steals a game, and has been very good in the tournament getting 2.2 steals a game. Brunson has been his usual stellar self, scoring 17.6 points a game in the tournament, so if Simpson can force the ball out of his hands and slow him down, Michigan immediately gains a huge advantage. For Villanova, they will need to contain Moritz Wager defensively. Omari Spellman will likely draw the matchup, and we have seen him struggle when defending pick and pops, which Wagner loves to run, as well as guarding slashers to the basket. Wagner is no easy cover, as he led Michigan in scoring this season with 14.6 points, and can score in a myriad of ways, so Spellman will need to figure out how to stop the big German for Nova to win. The matchup that should decide the game, however, is Charles Mathews versus Mikal Bridges. Mathews, a Kentucky transfer, has been on fire of late, winning the West Region's Most Outstanding Player Award and has averaged 16.6 points per game this tournament to go along with 6.8 rebounds. He is often who the Wolverines go to late in the shot clock, as he can get into the lane with ease and score around the rim. However, Bridges is one of the best wing defenders in college basketball and his length and all-around prowess should be able to give Mathews trouble. On the other end, Bridges has improved greatly as an offensive player, going from scoring 9.8 points last year to 17.6 this year. He, like all of Villanova's players, is a great shooter, making 43.5% of his tries from deep, and he can also get to the rim. Mathews might be able to guard him, though. He is a superb athlete and he has long arms so he should be able to challenge shots on the perimeter and make Bridges uncomfortable with his tight defense. Whichever player comes out on top will give his team a massive advantage in this one. All things considered, I'm going to be a fan here and go with Michigan. I really think Beilein will have a way to stifle Nova's offensive attack, and Michigan has been uncharacteristically cold from three throughout the tournament. Look for Michigan to run the Wildcats off the three point line and Wagner and Mohammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman to go off on the way to a second national title for the Maize and Blue.
Prediction: Michigan 71-66 Villanova
- Wow. That's all that came to mind watching Villanova face Kansas. They were white hot in the first half, making 13 of their 26 threes on their way to 47 points. Their offense is breathtaking to watch, as they always make the extra pass to ensure that they get the best possible look. Everyone on the court can shoot for the Wildcats, as center Omari Spellman actually leads the team with a 43.9% three point percentage, and all of their 7 regulars shoot above 35.7% from deep. They also share the ball beautifully, as mentioned above, getting 20 assists against the Jayhawks, and were fourth in the nation with 16.6 assists a game. This is one of the best offenses of the 2010s and they've been firing on all cylinders since the beginning of March, averaging 86.4 points a game.
- Omari Spellman has really emerged as a burgeoning star and possible first round pick recently. The 6'9" redshirt freshman has really come alive and has been fabulous for the Wildcats of late. As their only really interior presense, he is relied upon as the main rebounder and post defender and he creates matchup problems for opposing bigs. Sagaba Konate and Udoka Azubuike, two high quality bigs, couldn't guard him as they were dragged out onto the perimeter and were neutralized as lane protectors. He shoots it very well as mentioned above, and he is a great athlete who can score inside as well. He had 15 points and 13 rebounds against Kansas, so he comes into this one hot.
- It can't be overstated how well both of these coaches adapted. Bill Self has traditionally played with a high-low set, but in the absence of a solid power forward to pair with Udoka Azubuike, he went to a 4 out, 1 in system that worked wonders for the Jayhawks this season. Devonte' Graham, Malik Newman, Svi Mykhailiuk and Lagerald Vick were all very capable wings and they were all key in Kansas' 14th straight Big 12 title this season. As for Jay Wright, he has fully embraced the three point revolution, as Villanova took the fifth most threes per possession in the country this season, and it paid off in a big way. They made the most in Division One and shot 40.1% from three point range. They are uber-efficient, rarely taking long twos and getting assists on a lot of their baskets. This was a heavyweight coaching matchup, and GQ Jay won it.
Final Prediction
This is an intriguing matchup. It also features two of the top coaches in the country in Jay Wright and John Beilein, and a classic strength vs strength matchup. Villanova is one of the best three point shooting teams in the country, and Michigan defends the three point line as well as any team in the country. While Villanova shoots threes on 47.5% of their possession and makes 40.1% of their attempts from downtown, Michigan excels at closing out on shooters and limiting teams from downtown, with opposing teams only taking 29.9% of their shots from downtown, fifth lowest in the country, and making just 32.7%. Villanova thrives at getting points in transitions, and Michigan is also very good at stopping transition buckets since they rarely turn it over. The key matchups in this one will be Zavier Simpson guarding Jalen Brunson, Charles Mathews vs Mikal Bridges, and Omari Spellman covering Mortiz Wagner. First off, Brunson, the National Player of the Year, is one of the best players in the country and nearly impossible to stop. However, the pesky 6'0" guard for Michigan might be able to. He's been an excellent defender all season, averaging 1.3 steals a game, and has been very good in the tournament getting 2.2 steals a game. Brunson has been his usual stellar self, scoring 17.6 points a game in the tournament, so if Simpson can force the ball out of his hands and slow him down, Michigan immediately gains a huge advantage. For Villanova, they will need to contain Moritz Wager defensively. Omari Spellman will likely draw the matchup, and we have seen him struggle when defending pick and pops, which Wagner loves to run, as well as guarding slashers to the basket. Wagner is no easy cover, as he led Michigan in scoring this season with 14.6 points, and can score in a myriad of ways, so Spellman will need to figure out how to stop the big German for Nova to win. The matchup that should decide the game, however, is Charles Mathews versus Mikal Bridges. Mathews, a Kentucky transfer, has been on fire of late, winning the West Region's Most Outstanding Player Award and has averaged 16.6 points per game this tournament to go along with 6.8 rebounds. He is often who the Wolverines go to late in the shot clock, as he can get into the lane with ease and score around the rim. However, Bridges is one of the best wing defenders in college basketball and his length and all-around prowess should be able to give Mathews trouble. On the other end, Bridges has improved greatly as an offensive player, going from scoring 9.8 points last year to 17.6 this year. He, like all of Villanova's players, is a great shooter, making 43.5% of his tries from deep, and he can also get to the rim. Mathews might be able to guard him, though. He is a superb athlete and he has long arms so he should be able to challenge shots on the perimeter and make Bridges uncomfortable with his tight defense. Whichever player comes out on top will give his team a massive advantage in this one. All things considered, I'm going to be a fan here and go with Michigan. I really think Beilein will have a way to stifle Nova's offensive attack, and Michigan has been uncharacteristically cold from three throughout the tournament. Look for Michigan to run the Wildcats off the three point line and Wagner and Mohammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman to go off on the way to a second national title for the Maize and Blue.
Prediction: Michigan 71-66 Villanova
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